After winter’s seasonal scarcity, spring is the traditional time for protest in Kyrgyzstan. And though cold weather may hold onto the country for some weeks more, what happens next seems to be on everyone’s mind in Bishkek. Most expect protests of some sort, fueled by inflation, rising bread prices, and perceptions of a paralyzed parliament.
The fears are so acute that some are even beginning to ask themselves: What would Kyrgyzstan look like if this new government were unseated, like the last two, through popular protest? The answer is: Afghanistan.
“If another coup takes place in Kyrgyzstan, then surely a regime of warlords will be established in the country,” the president’s chief of staff, Emilbek Kaptagayev, said on February 16.
Of course it is in Kaptagayev’s interest to warn against unrest; he wants to hold onto his post. But some regions are already governed by the warlords of which he warns -- a mix of criminal gangs and other local power brokers, sometimes with connections to the police, and with no loyalty to Bishkek. Parts of the south are the most obvious examples.
The first deputy governor of Osh Province, Kushbak Tezekbaev, said the same day that in his region, “Many senior government bodies do not work; they are concerned with earning money and receiving bribes.” Only five percent of those in law enforcement there do their jobs, he added.
Another parallel: Afghanistan and Osh are both overrun with narcotics.
Temir Sariev, who served as finance minister in the interim government last year, predicts a “struggle between rich and poor” this spring, egged on by parliamentary factions concerned more with stripping the state of its limited wealth than moving Kyrgyzstan beyond its financial and governance crisis.
Some might say, in hushed tones as if fearful the remark could prove accurate, that President Roza Otunbayeva’s authority looks like Afghan President Hamid Karzai's used to, back when he was called the “mayor of Kabul” -- that is, recognized only in the capital.
So before the protestors come out this spring, they may want to consider that what they are asking for is a state of permanent revolt.
But looking at government, maybe they’d prefer to take their chances with the warlords: six weeks of parliamentary debates over whether to name a mountain after Vladimir Putin (the measure was approved on February 17); profligate personal spending; and an announcement, on top of the grinding financial crisis shaking this country, that a million dollars in state funds shall be spent on a new museum – these are just a few reasons the streets are getting restless again.
David Trilling is Eurasianet’s managing editor.
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