The tradition of the kurultai, or occasional popular assembly, in Kyrgyzstan stretches back to the days when Turkic and Mongol nomads roamed the Central Asian steppe. Now some Kyrgyz officials are agitating for the formal incorporation of the kurultai into the political process.
The effort to add an additional layer to Kyrgyzstan’s government comes at a time when concern is brewing about the possibility of a “third revolution” fuelled by rapidly rising food prices. Proponents argue that the kurultai tradition could help ensure all elements of Kyrgyz society have a voice in policymaking. Some observers, meanwhile, suggest that the initiative is the brainchild of politicians who are currently operating on the edge of power and who are looking to grab a greater share of influence.
For many, kurultai has become a byword for instability. Opposition kurultais spread across the country in the run up to the so-called Tulip Revolution in 2005, which resulted in the ouster of then-president Askar Akayev. His successor, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, shortly before his own ouster in 2010 convened a controversial “Kurultai of Consent,” during which delegates handpicked for their loyalty to the president declared western democratic institutions inappropriate for Kyrgyzstan. And in August 2010, a fugitive entrepreneur, Urmat Baryktabasov, attempted to fashion his own kurultai -- though it quickly turned into an armed clash with police.
Despite past controversies, supporters of the idea claim a regularly convened “people’s assembly” of unpaid delegates -- though it remains unclear how they should be chosen -- would bolster Kyrgyzstan’s efforts to solidify its fledgling parliamentary democratic system. The aim would be for the kurultai evolve into an independent oversight body capable of checking the legislature.
“It is perfectly well known that following the recent parliamentary elections, the five parties represented in the parliament received only 37 percent of all votes,” Felix Kulov told news agency 24.kg on February 8. Kulov, the leader of opposition Ar Namys Party in parliament and a likely candidate for president this fall, expressed concern that the country’s political process is becoming hostage to “party priorities.” He is among the chief proponents of institutionalizing the kurultai tradition.
A February 16 roundtable held by the Bishkek Women’s Political Debate Club set up a “kurultai working group” of supporters and forwarded a resolution to President Roza Otunbayeva outlining the argument for a standing people’s assembly. In addition to Kulov, notable signatories to the initiative include the leaders of parties not included in the current parliament, including a former foreign minister, Alikbek Jekshenkulov, and a former finance minister, Temir Sariyev.
Many pundits are framing the initiative as an attempt by sidelined politicians to reassert their public presence in the run up to the presidential elections. Jekshenkulov, leader of the dormant Akiyat (“Justice”) Party, has already announced the creation of an unsanctioned “shadow parliament,” which will ostensibly critique bills considered by the existing representative body. Now, as the republic edges towards spring, the time of year when domestic jockeying traditionally enters overdrive, there are concerns that impatient politicians are once more seeking to test the potential of Kyrgyzstan’s oldest institution.
“The kurultai is the Kyrgyz people’s natural form of self-government,” explains Toktogul Kachkeev of the Association of Political Analysts, but it is ripe for “manipulation.”
“Akayev and Bakiyev already discredited the idea of a national-level kurultai by using gatherings of delegates to further their own personal and political aims,” Kachkeev continued. “Currently, politicians are once more seeking to use the idea of a national kurultai ahead of the struggle for presidential power this autumn.”
Though he is against the idea of institutionalizing the kurultai, Kachkeev is one of many observers who remain “unimpressed” by the work of the nascent legislature. Another is President Otunbayeva who recently threatened to implement “drastic measures” unless the legislative branch began to operate more efficiently.
Even if the threat of dissolution is enough to keep MPs behaving reasonably, there is no guarantee that powerbrokers outside of parliament will share MPs’ caution, says Scott Radnitz, author of the recently published book Weapons of the Wealthy: Predatory Regimes and Elite-Led Protests in Central Asia. The sources of potential mobilization against the government are numerous.
“Within the country, there are many diverse interests and factions. Among these are business and criminal groups, which prefer to work with the government's protection, but could turn against it if their interests were not secured,” Radnitz told EurasiaNet.org. “Thanks to government infighting and the inability of the state to provide security since Bakiyev's ouster, anyone who can organize large numbers of people to make demands -- peacefully or violently -- has a good chance of getting his way.”
Whether those out in the political cold will turn from promoting “shadow parliaments” to cruder means of mobilization remains to be seen, but runaway inflation and repeated warnings of future instability by Otunbayeva’s own administration have served to create an expectation of uncertainty in Kyrgyzstan.
In a country where demonstrations have become “the predominant means of political struggle,” protests are always possible, Radnitz said. “For the foreseeable future, while the state remains weak and the economy extremely fragile, there will still be opportunities for political entrepreneurs to benefit by mobilizing people on the streets.”
Chris Rickleton is a Bishkek-based journalist.
Chris Rickleton is a journalist based in Almaty.
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