A curious phenomenon -- a story about the Nabucco pipeline published in The New York Times headlined "European Pipeline Project Faces Formidable Obstacles" does not once mention Turkmenistan.
The European Union has assiduously wooed Turkmenistan to supply gas to Nabucco; the U.S. has also repeatedly engaged the Turkmen leadership to endorse Nabucco, and to start with the Trans-Caspian pipeline across the Caspian seabed to Azerbaijan. Turkmenistan has been constantly coy about its intentions, last year even scolding RWE, Germany's gas company that is among the leaders of the Nabucco consortium, for jumping the gun on announcing Turkmenistan's involvement in the project and implying that "political considerations" (i.e. Russian objections) stood in the way. Turkmenistan then seemed to stand up more to Russia lately, at the Caspian Baku summit last November and recently at the international Caspian environmental meeting in Ashgabat earlier this month, implying that it will not expect to obtain Russian or Iranian consent for what it does with other Caspian littoral states on its territory in the Caspian.
And now this -- a frank assessment of the challenges of Nabucco that is not blaming Turkmen recalcitrance for the lagging of the project. Instead, the cost of the long-stalled pipeline is now starting to offset the rationality for it, and the focus is on Azerbaijan, which, it turns out despite some past indications it would cooperate, has said it has not yet decided. The reason doesn't appear to be Russian pressure to avoid an EU-sponsored circumvention route, but rather competing offers from pipelines also backed by European countries: the €1.6 billion. Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) backed by Norway's Statoil, Germany's E.ON and Switzerland's EGL, and the €2.5 billion Interconnector Turkey--Greece-Italy, or ITGI, backed by Edison of Italy; Depa of Greece; and Botas of the Turkey, said The New York Times.
Last year, the EU seemed to be turning more to Azerbaijan and other countries, even Kurdistan in Iraq, to look for gas to supply Nabucco when the Turkmens did not seem forthcoming, but Brussels was back early this year to reinforce its offer to Ashgabat. The 3,300 kilometer pipeline, once estimated to cost €7.9 billion and planned to deliver 31 billion cubic meters faces is now estimated to cost as much as €14 billion, according to a study commissioned by British oil company BP noted in the Times.
As the Times reported, Borut Grigic, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council pragmatically explained, "The attention is now on the economics of Nabucco, not the political aspects of using Nabucco to weaken Europe’s dependence on Russian gas." The EU energy commissioner said this year's developments will "make or break" Nabucco. The deal-breaker is described as Baku now, but that could change if Turkmenistan decides to seriously become involved. There is concern that it does not have enough gas and is overcommitted with other partners (China, Iran, and even still Russia) -- but it has found new gas fields and keeps confidentially saying it can handle all demands,
Turkmen interest lately has turned more to the reinvigoration of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline and projects to the East. This month, the Turkmen Ministry of Railway Transport met with Afghanistan's Ministry of Public Works to plan a railway to run from Turkmen territory inside Afghanistan. Turkmenistan has also picked up a $125 million loan from the Asian Development Bank to help finance the railroad to go from Turkmenistan and Central Asia to the Persian Gulf, and the Islamic Development Bank has already helped launched the construction of 311 kilometers of a 934 kilometer route.
The U.S. has had a number of high-level meetings with the Turkmen government explicitly involving its role in the Northern Distribution Network (NDN) that delivers supplies to NATO troops in Afghanistan. So far, Turkmenistan has only consented to allow the U.S. to refuel planes at the Ashgabat international airport carrying non-lethal supplies to Afghanistan. Unlike Uzbekistan, as far we know, Turkmenistan is not turning over its railways for shipping overland into Afghanistan. That may change and the U.S. may be interested in the construction of the railway to Afghanistan border towns, but so far this has not been publicly described. Turkmenistan does not ship fuel to NATO troops, although it allows planes to refuel.
Obviously mindful of the Trans-Caspian pipeline and other related proposed projects like shipping liquefied natural gas across the Caspian, Turkmenistan, while keeping its nominally neutral status, is enhancing its naval and military security. The U.S. is directly assisting in this operation by providing training to Turkmenistan's fledgling navy and organizing exchange programs on English language and basic naval administration. U.S. funds will go directly to helping Turkmenistan "develop a naval force to increase security on the Caspian Sea," according to a recent State Department report on military aid, as The Bug Pit reported. EurasiaNet reported that the U.S.
Special Operations Forces have gained permission "on a case-by-case basis" to conduct counter-terrorism operations in Turkmenistan, the U.S. Central Command has confirmed in March. According to the agreement, in conjunction with an upsurge of U.S.-led coalition activity against Islamic militants in northern Afghan provinces, U.S. Special Forces would “be prepared to conduct foreign internal defense and security forces assistance to assist partner nations improve their ability to provide for their own security," in Turkmenistan and other Central Asian nations. The budget for aid has been increased accordingly under a section for help to allied governments, from $40 million to $45 million in 2011. This isn't very much out of the overall U.S. Special Operations Command budget of $6.3 billion, and it is not clear how much of it actually falls to Turkmenistan, or for what. Last year, Turkmen officials made obscure references to the need for gaining military training and logistical support from "foreign" militaries -- it was not clear whether this meant U.S. or China, but it appeared it no longer meant Russia.
In general, Turkmenistan has liked to keep all its options open and insist on its "neutrality" -- which in practice seems to amount to accepting soft loans for pipeline construction from China, direct military aid and training from the U.S., but buying arms from Russia. Last year, Turkmenistan bought six T-90C tanks and four Smerch multiple-launch rocket systems from Russia, Russia's regnum.com news agency reported March 14.
Droughts and forest fires in Russia have hit the region’s grain markets very hard, and Russia was forced to declare an embargo against foreign sales last December. Turkmenistan is a producer of grain but also an importer of flour – mainly from Kazakhstan and Israel now. Strangely, despite having bread lines last year and shortages this year, Turkmenistan has now announced that it will be exporting grain.
Catherine A. Fitzpatrick compiles the Turkmenistan weekly roundup for EurasiaNet. She is also editor of EurasiaNet's Sifting the Karakum blog. To subscribe to the weekly email with a digest of international and regional press, write [email protected]
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