Watching Kyrgyzstan’s tottering coalition government lurch from one crisis to the next, a lot of people are asking, “When is it going to collapse?” Certainly, it often seems deputies are more concerned with a battle for power than legislative efforts. So this is an update on parliament’s latest diversions.
First, we have the burning question of when the presidential elections, slated for fall, will be held. Provisional President Roza Otunbayeva can only stay in office legally until December 31 and she’s repeatedly said she will step down (few people doubt her intention to do so). On April 15, she said elections should take place “no later than November.”
The new constitution (Article 85.5) says parliament cannot consider a vote of no confidence in the government “six months prior to the next presidential elections.” This is uncharted territory for Kyrgyzstan, but most interpretations believe this means that in the half year preceding elections, the parliament must continue functioning no matter what. There is plenty of room for ambiguity, but one analyst close to parliament described this interpretation as the standard “operating assumption” inside.
Working backwards, if the elections are scheduled for November 15, for example, that would mean that after May 15, legislators, no matter how much they hate each other, will have to coexist.
Of course, it is still up to parliament to decide the date for the presidential election.
The ruling coalition is made up of three parties: the Social Democrats (SDPK), Respublika, and Ata-Jurt. Prime Minister Almazbek Atambayev is from SDPK; Respublika’s Omurbek Babanov is first deputy prime minister; Akmatbek Keldibekov from Ata-Jurt is speaker.
Soon after the coalition formed on December 17, rumors began circulating that Atambayev would run for president and seek to make Babanov the new prime minister. Kamchybek Tashiev, an Ata-Jurt leader with eyes on the presidency, has loudly sought to ensure Prime Minister Atambayev does not use “institutional resources” in his campaign by asking him to guarantee he will step down as soon as he announces his candidacy. Tashiev has also helped highlight the suspicious business dealings of First Deputy Prime Minister Babanov, repeatedly threatening to walk away from the coalition.
Why hasn’t he? As one Respublika deputy put it on April 1, just before receiving a Tashiev knuckle sandwich, “If you want to go, just go,” (witnesses say there were a few more expletives in the original).
Ata-Jurt is divided. Tashiev cannot leave because he does not have the whole party behind him. Party-mate Keldibekov is rumored very happy in his role as speaker and would probably be loath to lose the post (“when he travels to the regions, he is treated like a king,” said one local analyst). Moreover, Keldibekov doesn’t have the same presidential ambitions as Tashiev, a former emergencies minister under ousted-President Kurmanbek Bakiyev.
Tashiev, after weeks of demanding Babanov’s resignation, instead got a rebuff masquerading as a concession on April 13: Babanov, faced with a scandal over his alleged business dealings with Kyrgyzstan’s largest mobile services provider, said he would step aside “temporarily” for one month while parliament investigates.
Given that the legislature has hardly been able to agree on anything -- and is not known for its efficiency in conducting investigations -- Babanov can safely assume he’ll be back. And, if parliament can agree on a date, he’ll likely be back just after the six-month hump passes, assuring him a powerful position in a government that will no longer be faced with the possibility of collapse. And if nothing else, Babanov is buying his allies within the ruling coalition some time.
Just in case that isn’t confusing enough, on April 15, 10 members of the opposition Ar-Namys Party said they were defecting to the ruling coalition. Why, what are they expecting to get in return and from whom, is unclear. Will they bring their leader Felix Kulov with them? He and Prime Minister Atambayev hate each other.
More urgently, is the Ar-Namys move even legal? During the parliamentary polls on October 10, Kyrgyzstanis voted for party lists, not individuals. Deputies, it would seem, cannot move as individuals, but must move as a party block, a faction. Yet the deputies say they are providing “moral support” in the form of 10 more votes for the ruling coalition. If Ata-Jurt (28 seats) does leave, the SDPK (26 seats) and Respubika (23 seats) factions, with the Ar-Namys 10, will almost have a majority. Pick up a few stray Ata-Jurt votes (Speaker Keldibekov, for example), and you have enough votes to pass legislation.
The author of the constitution, erstwhile “revolutionary” Omurbek Tekebayev, says the move is illegal. But expect any investigation and ruling to take weeks or months. By that time, if parliament can agree on an election date (easier with the Ar-Namys 10), we should have cleared the six-month hurdle.
So the Ar-Namys move is another brilliant stalling tactic that must have Tashiev incensed.
There are other factors contributing to the coalition’s volatility, no doubt. Most deputies running for parliament, many will tell you, paid for their place on their party list, for example. Parties that fared worse than expected thus left a lot of people out in the dust. Tashiev, moreover, has resorted to some unorthodox methods of doing business, with rumors swirling that he’s picked on several more deputies from his own party, pressing them – so to speak – to give up their seats.
Kyrgyzstan’s confusing parliament is no advertisement for stability, but be on the lookout for an election date soon.
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David Trilling is Eurasianet’s managing editor.
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