Nearly a year after Central Asia witnessed a bout of ethnic violence in Kyrgyzstan, a new study conducted in cosmopolitan Kazakhstan – which is fond of touting its positive record on relations between its 130 ethnic groups – shows that, while people are generally positive, public opinion’s a bit out of sync with the official line that the country is a bastion of ethnic harmony.
The poll, conducted nationwide from May 10-14 by Almaty’s Institute of Political Solutions (IPS) think-tank and published on May 18, shows that while over half (56 percent) rate relations between ethnic groups in their region as “friendly,” 11 percent see “hidden tension,” and just under 2 percent say relations are tense and “conflicts often arise.” A tiny 0.7 percent saw “open enmity”; 20 percent said there were “no relations, interests do not intersect,” and 10 percent couldn’t answer.
Just over a third (37 percent) ruled out taking part in a conflict “if it concerns the interests of your ethnic group,” while 40 percent said it depended on the circumstances, 11 percent would definitely take part, and 13 percent couldn’t answer.
Tensions were highest in central and western Kazakhstan, the IPS’s Madina Nurgaliyeva told a press conference, suggesting that high numbers of foreign laborers (often resented by local workers for earning higher salaries) may contribute to nationalist moods in the oil-rich west. The reason for the spike in tensions in central Kazakhstan needs further study, she added.
Most worryingly for the government, the poll – which questioned 2,301 people with a margin of error of 1 percent – found that 8 percent supported the idea that “Kazakhstan should become a state of [ethnic] Kazakhs, and only Kazakhs have the right to define the present and future of Kazakhstan,” while 28 percent agreed that “Kazakhstan is a multiethnic state, but only Kazakhs, being the titular ethnic group, should be the state-forming ethnic group” – in other words, the core around which the other groups coalesce. This concept last year caused a furor among nationalists during discussions of a National Unity Doctrine. The poll showed 58 percent believing Kazakhstan should be “a united nation of the state’s citizens,” with all groups “state-forming.”
That’s food for thought for the government, as the anniversary of Central Asia’s worst ethnic violence since the Soviet Union’s collapse approaches in tense Kyrgyzstan.
Joanna Lillis is a journalist based in Almaty and author of Dark Shadows: Inside the Secret World of Kazakhstan.
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