Amid nail-biting by Caucasus watchers, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan landed in the Russian city of Kazan today for another round of conflict-resolution talks over breakaway Nagorno Karabakh. Russian President Dmitri Medvedev is emceeing this fifth joint appearance by Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev. Hopes are that, this time, it could be the real thing.
The cautious optimism from some diplomats and analysts that accompanied previous Sargsyan-Aliyev meetings has been upgraded to cautious-optimism-plus. Alongside dire warnings about what could be the outcome if the talks, once again, go awry. The key expectation for the two-day summit is that it will produce some sort of agreement in three key areas: the return of Karabkh-adjacent lands to Azerbaijan, allowing Azerbaijani Internally Displaced Persons back into Karabakh and a loose agreement to negotiate the region’s status in the future.
Citing an unnamed Russian foreign ministry official, Kommersant, Russia’s weighty daily, claimed today that the two leaders could even be close to committing to a non-use-of-force agreement as part of the efforts to resolve the Karabakh conflict . Azerbaijan has long maintained that it will keep the military solution on the table as an option to restore its authority over Karabakh and surrounding territories. Given its heavy troop presence in the area, Armenia is likely to respond in kind.
But while Kommersant’s article has lent an extra dose of optimism to the air, it could only be an attempt by Moscow to make its position and expectations known. Any progress will count as a masterstroke of diplomacy on the part of President Medvedev, who has taken an active role in the conflict resolution talks.
US President Barack Obama and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, as part of the US-France-Russia troika of mediators, also have pushed both sides to take a step toward resolution of the 23-year conflict.
For now, though, don't hold your breath.
Giorgi Lomsadze is a journalist based in Tbilisi, and author of Tamada Tales.
Sign up for Eurasianet's free weekly newsletter. Support Eurasianet: Help keep our journalism open to all, and influenced by none.