A long-awaited agreement signed by Turkey and Azerbaijan on Caspian natural gas supplies and transit to Europe could provide a boost to the European Union's efforts to diversity energy supplies, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported.
The agreement, signed in the Turkish city of Izmir on October 25, opens the door to shipments of Azerbaijani, and possibly Turkmen, gas to European customers, says RFE/RL.
Giorgi Lomsadze of EurasiaNet's Tamada Tales also reported the good news -- but with some qualifications:
The news may come as a smelling salt for the long-delayed Nabucco gas transit project and its rival proposals, but most news reports overlooked one small detail
Both Turkey and Azerbaijan's energy ministers will revise the agreement's details -- a process that "should not take more than a year," Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told reporters, one Azerbaijani news site reported,echoing a report in Turkey's Hürriyet Daily News. Details were not provided, but, as the past has shown, both Turkey and Azerbaijan can revise with the best of 'em when it comes to energy agreements. Arguably, the EU and US appear more impatient about calling it a day.
Leaving the details to commissions that tend to stall endlessly is also a problem Turkmenistan suffers from, as we wrote last week: "Yet in reality, Turkmenistan seems no closer to really committing to Nabucco participation – unless the mirage of forming yet another working group is to be taken for reality."
RFE/RL's Bruce Pannier is more hopeful, citing a leading expert on energy in Central Asia:
Turkmenistan's position appears to be changing, however, according to Robert Cutler, senior research fellow at the Institute of European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies at Carlton University in Ottawa, Canada.
Cutler notes an interesting comment made by Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov during a visit by Austrian President Heinz Fischer earlier this month.
"Berdymukhammedov said what he had not said in public before, which was that Turkmenistan would supply gas to Europe," Cutler says. "He had never actually been quoted in the Turkmenistan press saying exactly those words. Also, in the last week it was reported that he approved the composition of a state committee that will elaborate the terms and the logistics and implementation for the provision of gas to foreign customers."
We agree as noted last week that indeed, Berdymukhamedov has not been reported in the Turkmen state media (which he totally controls) saying the magic word "Nabucco" -- until now.
To be sure, a year ago, foreign media reported him as pronouncing the name of that pipeline panacea, and he seemed to be edging towards the Western-backed project.
Steve LeVine has called Nabucco "the pipeline that refuses to die" and has reported its death-by-US-requiem before.
Now that Berdymukhamedov is talking Nabucco, perhaps it is closer to fruition -- but those commissions and committees need to be watched closely to see if they produce anything in the next year.
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