An explosion on a railroad on the Uzbekistan-Afghanistan border was a "terrorist act," the Russian news service RIA Novosti reported. The explosion apparently occurred between the Galaba and Amuzang stations on the line between Termez, at the southern tip of Uzbekistan, and Kurgan-Tyube in Tajikistan. The Bug Pit noted that this area is on a short route inside Uzbekistan along the Amu Darya River, at the border between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan.
The explosion took place the night of November 17, but Uzbek state media took two days to provide terse announcements for government newspapers, then online services. Officials said there were no casualties and that a government commission was being formed to investigate. Russian media reported a Russian Railways announcement that no tickets were being sold to Galaba and Amuzang, because the supports for a bridge were destroyed. The semi-official uzmetronom.com, which often publishes leaks from the Uzbek government, said that a government emergency session was held on the 17th, with speculation the incident was an act of terror.
As The Bug Pit noted, thoughts turned instantly to the Northern Distribution Network (NDN), the supply line to NATO troops in Afghanistan with which Uzbekistan has been enlisted to cooperate. Could militants now target this sensitive route, as they had once attacked delivery routes in Pakistan -- which had necessitated the entire move over to Uzbekistan in the first place?
While the secretive Uzbek government may never tell the truth about this, Central Asia watchers are mulling another theory, which is that the blast could be unrelated to the NDN, and in fact is related to the ongoing dispute with Tajikistan. The rail line Termez-Kurgan-Tyube-Yavan, over 200 kilometers long, links the southern region of Tajikistan with neighboring foreign countries. Thus an attack instigated or tolerated by Uzbek security agents could have been designed to further isolate Dushanbe, which has been pressing ahead with the controversial Roghun hydropower station opposed by Tashkent.
The notion that "the Uzbeks did it to themselves" is one that some analysts reach for whenever a terrorist attack occurs in Uzbekistan because so little information is available, and because the timing of incidents sometimes seem to be propitious for various government agendas. Of course, it must be said there are great risks and unintended consequences in security agencies actually staging such an attack, making it unlikely. Questions have to be asked about whether this explosion affected Tajikistan or actually hindered the movement of any freight on the NDN -- and the US is unlikely to say anything given a recurring refusal in general by US officials to comment on NDN routes, citing security concerns.
India, which has spent more than $1 US billion on reconstruction and economic improvement in Afghanistan, has decided to become more involved with Afghanistan's neighbors in Central Asia.Chief of Army Staff General VK Singh visited Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan last week to build military relations in Central Asia, The Bug Pit noted, citing IndianDefence.com. After being pushed aside by Russia in an attempt to set up an air base in Tajikistan, India now has new military arrangements with Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Mongolia, but this is the first time an Indian Army General has visited Uzbekistan.
In her new memoirs, Condoleezza Rice, former secretary of state, reveals an internal debate about relations with Uzbekistan during the Bush Administration and the Andijan massacre in 2005. Rice said she'd "crossed swords" with then-defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld over how to respond to the atrocity.
Writes Rice: "Don called me to say that we needed to back off.”The military needs that base," he said. "Our security is at stake." I told him that I was sympathetic to the Pentagon's plight but that, in my view, the United States could not soften its position on human rights as a quid pro quo for the military presence in Uzbekistan. "What's more, now that he's threatened us, we can't afford to cave," I told him.
As The Bug Pit notes, it is impossible to know how much was true of this episode of "human rights trumps security" and how much was self-serving. Rumsfeld claimed at the time that in isolating Tashkent, the US was actually making Uzbek human rights actions worse -- although they were already on a bad trajectory. He also claimed that US rejection would drive Tashkent into the arms of the Kremlin -- yet Tashkent remains as wary of Moscow as ever.
The crackdown against devout Muslims continues, with yet another trial behind closed doors of 16 Muslims charged with "creating or leading an extremist religious, separatist, fundamentalist or other banned organization." Surat Ikramov, leader of the Initiative Group of Independent Human Rights Activists in Uzbekistan, says the number of such cases is increasing with every year, uznews.net reported. The exact number of such cases cannot be determined because of the government secrecy surrounding them, but in the years since Andijan, the government has arrested and sentenced more than 5,000 Muslim believers. Another prisoner died in prison after signs of torture, human rights activists reported.
As Choihona reported, the plant where Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke in Tashkent has now formally opened, gov.uz reported. The GM Powertrain Uzbekistan plant is a joint venture with UzAvtosanoat, a state-run company founded by President Karimov, in which GM has 52 percent. The plant was heralded as a model of the kinds of projects the US Administration hopes that corporations will support on the new Silk Road initiative.
The independent news site fergananews.com reported that Uzbek officials lobbied not to publicize the plant and didn't want reporters to visit or photograph it. Eventually, the US Embassy in Tashkent was able to persuade Uzbek officialdom that they should showcase the plant as a triumph for the Uzbek economy and international cooperation, although for some reason, officials didn't want it exposed. The plant is to provide 1,200 jobs, and workers are to be paid higher wagers than normal, reported $1000 a month at the official exchange rate ($1-2600 soums) says fergananews.com
EurasiaNet researched the state of the Uzbek health industry of late, and found that despite official statistics claiming improvements in indicators like child mortality, the system is in a deplorable state, and doctors are forced to lie about such issues as infant deaths in order to appear as if they are fulfilling government directives. Medical personnel have been forced to work in the cotton fields, leaving their clinics empty and patients underserved. Uzbekistan has reduced its spending on health care, and seen a drop in life expectancy for both men and women, according to a report by the European Observatory on Health Systems and Policies, a World Health Organization affiliate.
The rates of drug-resistant tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS infection have increased, and experts blame both government secrecy and unwillingness to allow public education as well as lack of investment. While youth educator Max Popov, jailed for distribution of sex-education pamphlets, was released from prison after a year, he was not able to return to his work.
Radio Ozodlik reports that under a presidential decree ordering a decrease in the birth rate, doctors have been forced to pressure women to undergo sterilization or use IUDs and have even refused care to pregnant women at public clinics that have reached their quota for births, forcing women to give birth at home.
Catherine A. Fitzpatrick compiles the Uzbekistan weekly roundup for EurasiaNet. She is also editor of EurasiaNet's Choihona blog.
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