Turkey: To Sanction or Not to Sanction Syria, That is the (Economic) Question
Up until the Arab Spring spilled over so violently into Syria, the rapprochement with Damascus could have been considered one of the great successes of Ankara's outreach to its neighbors. But Turkey-Syria relations have deteriorated as rapidly as the situation inside Syria has, leaving Ankara with some very difficult policy choices, among the most prominent ones being how to deal with the issue of sanctions against the Assad regime. Ankara has suggested for weeks now that it will roll out a host of sanctions aimed at the Damascus regime, but has yet to make the details public. (Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu today said sanctions would soon be announced, after he holds consultations with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is recovering from a recent operation. More details here.) (UPDATE- Ankara Wednesday unveiled its new sanctions program, which includes a freeze on certain Syrian assets in Turkey and a hold on dealing with Syria's Central Bank, among other measures. Details here.)
The issue is, of course, a political one. But for Turkey, which uses Syria as an important trade route and whose imports to the country have boomed in recent years, the sanctions issue is also very much an economic one. In a recent piece in The National, analyst Henri Barkey, says Ankara's hesitation regarding Syria sanctions is strongly influenced by economic concerns:
Turkey may be unwilling to make the important sacrifices necessary to further weaken Mr Al Assad's rule in Damascus. Closing the border, imposing a trade embargo and especially arming the rebels are, understandably, difficult if not impossible choices. In Turkey's border towns, especially in Hatay province, where large numbers of Turkish Alevis - who like Syria's ruling Alawite minority are an offshoot of Shia Islam - reside, the government's Syria policy is seriously contested.
Turkish-Syrian trade association leaders in Istanbul recently told me that they opposed a trade embargo on Syria. Ankara under Mr Erdogan's AKP prioritised the export sector; already worried about its current account deficit, it cannot really afford to forsake any export market let alone one this close.
In a good article from today's Edition, Todays's Zaman, talks to sheds some more light on the potential economic fallout from instituting sanctions against Syria, particularly for businesses along the country's border. From the article:
The decrease in trade has been sharply felt in the transportation industry as well. Since Syria is not only a budding market for Turkish exports, but also a transit country for Turkish trucks heading for countries in the Arabian Peninsula, Jordan and Lebanon, the decrease seems to have been felt even more strongly in the transportation sector. Fulya Özdemir, Hatay representative of the International Transporters’ Association (UND), has told Today’s Zaman that Turkish drivers in Hatay province, which borders Syria, don’t want to travel to Syria since a Turkish truck driver was killed in Syria last August.
Due to the armed clashes in Syria, more than half of the transportation firms in the region don’t want to send drivers there. “As exports to and through Syria have diminished, the hiring price for trucks has also fallen significantly. Since the demand on trucks is low, there are transportation companies trying to sell some of their trucks. On the other hand, for those exporters who would like to send goods to the region, the price of transportation has risen by about 20-30 percent because of the risks involved. “A regional firm that used to send at least 12 trucks to Syria a week, now sends only 3-4 at most,” she added, describing the situation in the transportation sector in the Hatay region.
Local merchants are more worried about the loss of trade over the border with Syria. Mehmet Ali Mutafoğlu, deputy president of the Akteks textile company based in Gaziantep, another province neighboring Syria, has told Today’s Zaman that he believed sanctions would hurt Turkey more than Syria, Syria also being the transit country for Turkish exports. Mutafoğlu, who owns a textile factory near Aleppo which works with at capacity, also thinks that restriction on Turkish banks regarding trade with Syria would work to the detriment of the Turkish side because “the Syrians are used to doing business outside of the banking system.”
With all of this in mind, Turkey's Transportation Minister today announced that Ankara may start looking for transit routes that bypass Syria, especially through Iraq. From Hurriyet:
"If conditions aggravate in Syria, we are planning to shift (road) transport to Iraq by opening new gates," Transport Minister Binali Yildirim was quoted as saying by the Anatolia news agency.Turkey's move comes after Arab foreign ministers agreed on Sunday a list of sweeping sanctions designed to cripple the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, which has defied international pressure to halt a bloody crackdown on protests.
Yildirim said the Arab sanctions against Damascus were not yet fully implemented.
"Turkey is supporting this work (Arab League decision) to some extent but our principle is that the restrictions to be imposed should never victimise the Syrian people," he warned.
Bypassing Syria, especially through Iraq, may be easier said than done, as Today's Zaman makes clear:
Iraq has been a troublesome route for Turkish transporters, where gangs have killed nearly 80 Turkish drivers in recent years. That’s why Mutafoğlu doubts whether additional border gates to Iraq would solve the problem of the transporters. “Are you going to drive through Felluce? Who knows what will happen in Iraq after the American leave the country,” he said.
Meanwhile, for more background on the Turkey-Syria relationship and Ankara's concerns regarding the situation in Syria, take a look at this brief that I recently wrote for the United States Institute of Peace.
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