Turkey: To Sanction or Not to Sanction Syria, That is the (Economic) Question

Up until the Arab Spring spilled over so violently into Syria, the rapprochement with Damascus could have been considered one of the great successes of Ankara's outreach to its neighbors. But Turkey-Syria relations have deteriorated as rapidly as the situation inside Syria has, leaving Ankara with some very difficult policy choices, among the most prominent ones being how to deal with the issue of sanctions against the Assad regime. Ankara has suggested for weeks now that it will roll out a host of sanctions aimed at the Damascus regime, but has yet to make the details public. (Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu today said sanctions would soon be announced, after he holds consultations with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is recovering from a recent operation. More details here.) (UPDATE- Ankara Wednesday unveiled its new sanctions program, which includes a freeze on certain Syrian assets in Turkey and a hold on dealing with Syria's Central Bank, among other measures. Details here.)

Turkey may be unwilling to make the important sacrifices necessary to further weaken Mr Al Assad's rule in Damascus. Closing the border, imposing a trade embargo and especially arming the rebels are, understandably, difficult if not impossible choices. In Turkey's border towns, especially in Hatay province, where large numbers of Turkish Alevis - who like Syria's ruling Alawite minority are an offshoot of Shia Islam - reside, the government's Syria policy is seriously contested.

Turkish-Syrian trade association leaders in Istanbul recently told me that they opposed a trade embargo on Syria. Ankara under Mr Erdogan's AKP prioritised the export sector; already worried about its current account deficit, it cannot really afford to forsake any export market let alone one this close.

"If conditions aggravate in Syria, we are planning to shift (road) transport to Iraq by opening new gates," Transport Minister Binali Yildirim was quoted as saying by the Anatolia news agency.

Turkey's move comes after Arab foreign ministers agreed on Sunday a list of sweeping sanctions designed to cripple the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, which has defied international pressure to halt a bloody crackdown on protests.

Yildirim said the Arab sanctions against Damascus were not yet fully implemented.

"Turkey is supporting this work (Arab League decision) to some extent but our principle is that the restrictions to be imposed should never victimise the Syrian people," he warned.

Bypassing Syria, especially through Iraq, may be easier said than done, as Today's Zaman makes clear:

Iraq has been a troublesome route for Turkish transporters, where gangs have killed nearly 80 Turkish drivers in recent years. That’s why Mutafoğlu doubts whether additional border gates to Iraq would solve the problem of the transporters. “Are you going to drive through Felluce? Who knows what will happen in Iraq after the American leave the country,” he said.

Meanwhile, for more background on the Turkey-Syria relationship and Ankara's concerns regarding the situation in Syria, take a look at this brief that I recently wrote for the United States Institute of Peace.