An Iranian political official threatened to attack Turkey's NATO missile defense system if the U.S. or Israel attack Iran, repeating a similar threat from a general a month ago. From the Fars News Agency:
Vice-Chairman of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission Hossein Ebrahimi informed that Iran is making plans towards finding ways to neutralize the NATO missile defense system to be installed in Turkey, and warned that in the case of any attack on Iran, it will definitely hit that system....
Last month, Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Commander Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh underlined Iran's crushing response to any enemy aggression, and warned that Tehran will target the NATO missile shield in Turkey in case it comes under attack.
"We have prepared ourselves, if any threat is staged against Iran, we will target NATO's missile shield in Turkey and will then attack other targets," General Hajizadeh said addressing a congregation of 10,000 Basij (volunteer forces) members in the Western town of Khorramabad in late November.
The threat got a lot of attention in the Turkish press, but most of it dismissive. Today's Zaman reported that the Iranian Foreign Ministry says that those threats aren't official policy:
However, Turkish officials contacted by Today's Zaman Monday clarified that the Iranian foreign ministry has assured Turkey they do not back such threats and the threats do not reflect ministerial policy. The officials also repeated Ankara's position that Turkey should only acknowledge statements from Iranian officials actually in charge, including the Iranian president and the foreign ministry.
Are the president and foreign ministry any more "in charge" than the IGRC and the Supreme Leader? Anyway, Turkey-based proliferation expert Aaron Stein suggested on twitter that it wasn't even militarily possibly to carry out the threat: "#Iran's missiles are so inaccurate I sincerely doubt they could hit the radar in #Turkey. Scud is only useful for large targets like cities."
Walter Russell Mead, writing at The American Interest, adds that the threat is a political miscalculation, as well:
Nothing could be better calculated to deepen Turkish hostility to Iran as the two countries prepare to duel for influence in Syria and Iraq — both formerly part of the Ottoman Empire and coveted for centuries by Persian rulers. We live in a strange world; first Israeli diplomatic clumsiness and ineptitude drives the Turks toward Iran, then the Iranians drive them back.
A columnist for Hurriyet, while calling the threat "hot air," nevertheless notes that the U.S. and NATO still shouldn't count on Turkey's support in case of an Israeli attack against Iran:
If, however, Israel strikes unilaterally against Iran and disregards dire warnings from Washington and other Western capitals, it is extremely unlikely Turkey will give overt approval for the use of NATO assets on its soil to help Israel against Iran. Unless, that is, NATO is involved based on a U.N. resolution.
The situation may have been different in the past, but given the present state of affairs between Turkey and Israel, Ankara cannot afford to be seen helping Israel, an act that would risk its own regional interests and security.
Planners in Washington and Tel Aviv should note this fact in order not to relive the kind of disappointment with Turkey they experienced in 2003 during America’s invasion of Iraq.
In any case, the threats of an attack on Iran are almost certainly overstated, so this is likely nothing to worry about. But that we've come to threats of attack is a sign that Iranian-Turkish relations are going to have a hard time recovering from Ankara's decision to allow the NATO missile shield.
Joshua Kucera, a senior correspondent, is Eurasianet's former Turkey/Caucasus editor and has written for the site since 2007.
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