Azerbaijan and Russia are wrapping up three days of negotiations in Baku on the new terms of the Gabala radar station that the Russian military operates in Azerbaijan. The talks were led by Azerbaijani Defense Minister Safar Abiyev and Russian Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov, and they don't seem to have come yet to any agreement on the use of the radar, whose current lease expires in December 2012.
Azerbaijan is asking for a higher rent -- increasing from $7 million a year to $100 million, according to an Azerbaijani member of the parliamentary defense committee, as well as more local employment and more mitigation of the station's environmental effects. Russia, in turn, is reportedly proposing to build a new station (the current one was built in 1985) that would have a much smaller footprint, and to keep the current rent (which according to most sources is actually $10 million a year). From Nezavisimaya Gazeta (in Russian):
Meanwhile, on the eve of the start of the Baku round of negotiations, an unexpected statement was made by Vladimir Savchenko, general director of the Academician Mintz Radio Engineering Institute, who reported that Russia plans to complete construction of the latest radar, "Voronezh-VP" in Gabala (Azerbaijan) in 2019 . This station will replace the previous generation Daryal radars.
"The Voronezh-VP is a high-technology station that can be prefabricated. With regard to timing, the plan is to complete it by 2017-2019, but it all depends on the goodwill of our esteemed neighbors. The final agreement will be secured on a political level," Savchenko said....
Sources of "NG" in the government could neither confirm nor deny this information, noting that previously it was only the intention to upgrade the existing radar system Moscow. The working group must agree on the details of the project.
Naturally, the Azerbaijani side is concerned about getting mixed up in any conflict involving Iran, and the Gabala radar is used by Russia to monitor the airspace to the south, making it possibly useful to various sides in such a potential war. News.az interviewed Azerbaijani military expert Azad Isazade about this:
Why should we install another radar station that monitors Iran, when the station could be attacked by Iran in retaliation to a Western attack on the country? Will the establishment of the new radar station heighten this threat?
Not now. Why is Russia sticking with Azerbaijan? Because for Russia this means preservation of its military presence in the region, as well as direct access to information about what is going on in the Middle East and Iran. The question arises: in whose interests will Russia use this information? Will it give it to Iran and thus try to damage Western forces that may plan to attack Iran? Or will it provide true information in favour of both parties, or misinformation? Iran's actions will depend on the position Russia takes.
The threat to Azerbaijan will remain as long as it has such powerful radar stations on its territory. Hypothetically, if these stations are built to protect Russia, this means that Moscow admits the possibility of conflicts against it. And if a conflict happens tomorrow, no one will strike the first blow against Russia. The first strikes will target its radar. The same goes for facilities that represent US interests, which the Iranians have stated. This refers to regional energy infrastructure. Therefore, the less Azerbaijan is involved, the safer it will be.
And there is also worry about getting too involved with Russia. RFE/RL interviewed another parliament member, Zahid Oruc:
"[I]f Russia wants to strengthen its military participation in Azerbaijan, it will damage our military political interests," he said. "Because in some cases these military forces have a negative impact on a country's independence and ensure Russia's dominant role in economic-political processes [of the country]."
Of course, the airing of all those concerns could be part of the bargaining process. It would seem that what Azerbaijan would need more than money is Russian help of whatever sort in Nagorno Karabakh. One wonders if that's part of the negotiations, too.
Joshua Kucera, a senior correspondent, is Eurasianet's former Turkey/Caucasus editor and has written for the site since 2007.
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