When Kazakhstan goes to the polls to elect a new parliament on January 15, voters in the restless western oil town of Zhanaozen, where at least 16 people were shot dead when police opened fire on protestors last month, will not be allowed to cast their ballots.
Astana has postponed the election in Zhanaozen, promising that its 50,000 voters can head to the polls at an unspecified later date.
The Central Electoral Commission announced the move on January 6 after consultations with the Constitutional Council, on the grounds that the vote cannot be held in the town while a state of emergency is in place. On January 4, President Nursultan Nazarbayev extended the state of emergency until the end of the month.
The exclusion of Zhanaozen’s voters from the election, even if temporary, raises the question of how legitimate the election will be. Central Electoral Commission head Kuandyk Turgankulov said casually that Zhanaozen’s exclusion would have only “minimal” impact on the nationwide election results.
Kazakhstan has never held an election deemed free and fair by international observers, and Nazarbayev and his ruling Nur Otan party regularly win with eye-popping landslides. Nazarbayev won reelection last April with 95.5 percent of the vote; Nur Otan won the last parliamentary election in 2007 with 88 percent, forming a single-party parliament after other parties failed to clear the 7 percent voter threshold.
At least one other party will enter parliament this time, because now the second-place party is exempt from the threshold. Analysts see this change as aimed at creating a democratic veneer for Kazakhstan’s rubberstamp legislature, and are tipping the Ak Zhol party, which is loyal to Nazarbayev, to pick up seats.
One party originally registered to stand will not be winning any mandates: In late December, Rukhaniyat was abruptly banned from participating over alleged irregularities in its party list. Just as suddenly, its leader Serikzhan Mambetalin, who has been vocal in his criticism of the administration, was ejected from the party on January 8.
As Kazakhstan prepares to go to the polls, it is facing troubled times indeed.
Joanna Lillis is a journalist based in Almaty and author of Dark Shadows: Inside the Secret World of Kazakhstan.
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