During a trip to Moscow last weekend, when Kyrgyzstan’s President Almazbek Atambayev said his country doesn’t need Russian bases on its soil, some thought his talk was just political theater. After all, Atambayev generally enjoys rosy relations with Russian leaders and had just succeeded in getting them to cough up some overdue base rent. But could he have missed his cues?
Shortly after meetings with Prime Minister/President-to-Be Vladimir Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev, Atambayev launched a volley of complaints that suggests something didn’t go right in Moscow. His accusations, followed by a sharp Russian rebuke, have brought back memories of the Kremlin’s role in Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s swift fall almost two years ago.
Regularly featured in Atambayev’s Moscow meetings are the stalled negotiations over the sale of Kyrgyz energy infrastructure to Russia’s state-run gas monopoly, Gazprom, and – connected, perhaps? – Moscow’s unfulfilled promise to help Kyrgyzstan’s economy back on track with a large infusion of cash. This time, after his meetings, Atambayev told Kommersant that Kyrgyzstan would no longer beg for aid (Bishkek already owes Moscow almost $500 million).
Whatever riled Atambayev, he also felt emboldened enough to complain that Kyrgyzstan gets nothing out of hosting the Russians—the Kant base, for which he had just received a “measly” $15 million IOU for overdue rent, only “flatters the vanity of Russian generals.” (Later, it turned out, Atambayev was confused: The cash was not for Kant, but for the other four Russian military facilities on Kyrgyz soil, Kyrgyz defense officials said. Russian troops stay at Kant under a Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) agreement.)
After his return to Bishkek, Atambayev then fingered the intelligence agencies of “other countries” for interfering in Kyrgyzstan’s domestic elections.
On March 1, Moscow told him to knock it off.
“We would recommend President Atambayev focus on problems of poverty in his own country, rather than searching for enemies, particularly among neighbors, friends and allies,” an unnamed official from Medvedev’s office said. “The responsibility for the poor socio-economic status of Kyrgyzstan’s citizens will inevitably fall on the state’s leaders personally.”
In response, on March 2 Atambayev complained that some Russian officials are waging an “information attack” against him, and then highlighted his warm relations with Russia’s ruling tandem.
No matter how many times Atambayev punctuates his statements with praise for Medvedev and Putin, this week has left the indelible impression that the honeymoon is over.
David Trilling is Eurasianet’s managing editor.
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