Nagorno Karabakh: An Unrecognized Vote for an Unrecognized President

Whoever prevails in today’s de-facto vote in breakaway Nagorno Karabakh, the “black garden” of the Caucasus is not in for a game-changer. If there is any change, it is going to be in-house.  

This is the fifth de-facto election in the separatist history of Karabakh and the fifth time the international community has shrugged its shoulders at the territory’s claims that it is an independent country with on-the-level elections.

Azerbaijan says that without the ousted ethnic Azeri population, no vote can be legitimate in Karabakh. Most of the world concurs.

But the de-facto election matters for the impoverished, ethnic Armenian population of Karabakh. They face a choice between five more years of the same with incumbent Bako Saakian, the onetime head of the region's de-facto security servicesl, or a new broom with his two challengers, one ex-military and one academician.

Saakian’s main challenger, former de-facto Deputy Defense Minister Vitaly Balasian, a veteran of Karabakh’s war for de-facto independence from Azerbaijan, takes a hard-line stance toward both Enemy Number One, Azerbaijan, and Friend Number One, Armenia. As a de-facto parliament member, he opposed surrendering any war-won Azerbaijani lands, a critical theme in talks over the territory’s status, and criticized Armenia for conducting international negotiations on the enclave’s status without the participation of de-facto Karabakh officials.

All three candidates are pushing for Karabakh's re-inclusion in the internationally mediated talks.  Where the three differ is the economy and allegations of corruption.   
     
No major international election observation mission is on hand to assess the de-facto vote's conduct, but independent monitors from Armenia, Russia and 13 other countries have arrived to survey the scene. They risk becoming personae non gratae in Azerbaijan as a result.

The participation of Russian parliamentarians as observers has particularly vexed Azerbaijan, and its parliament is preparing to respond to it. Azerbaijan, which views Karabakh's current de-facto leadership as a passive addendum to Yerevan, has said repeatedly that any attempts to legitimize Karabakh’s attempts at state-building will be fraught with consequences.