Is Russia "Returning" To Afghanistan?

Russia's announcement that it might be setting up repair facilities in Afghanistan for the maintenance of the Afghanistan military's equipment may seem like a pretty mundane bit of news, except for the irresistible symbolism. "Russia considers returning to Afghanistan," writes Foreign Policy. "Russia going back to Afghanistan? Kremlin confirms it could happen," writes the Christian Science Monitor.

From RT:

“We will look into various options of creating repair bases on Afghan territory,” the head of the Defense Ministry’s department of international cooperation, Sergey Koshelev, told the press. He added that the maintenance of weapons and military hardware in Afghanistan remains a top priority, as any instability in the country would affect Russia’s own security, as well as the security of other European nations.

And Moscow is also not ruling out more substantive cooperation with NATO in Afghanistan. RT again:

Russian NATO envoy Aleksandr Grushko also said that Moscow was not excluding the possibility of broader cooperation with the military bloc. In particular, Russia could offer to enlarge the transport corridor to Afghanistan, so that the country’s own forces could continue to receive supplies from Western allies after coalition troops leave Afghanistan in 2014.

The top Russian MP for defense said in press comments that Moscow saw stabilization in Afghanistan as a main priority: “In any case this [Russia-NATO cooperation] is a positive moment. The coalition was breaking there for 13 years. We remember very well the situation our troops found themselves in at the Afghanistan-Tajikistan border. This is why the stabilization in Afghanistan is very important for us,” Sergey Zhigarev told RSN radio.

Russia already cooperates pretty substantially with the U.S. and NATO on Afghanistan, primarily by allowing the coalition forces to use its territory to ship equipment in and out of Afghanistan and setting up a logistics center (albeit an underutilized one) for Afghanistan cargo. At the same time, it's trying to thwart the U.S.'s military presence in Central Asia, even though that presence is devoted solely to the very same operations in Afghanistan.

Might these humble repair centers presage a more boots-on-the-ground approach for Russia in Afghanistan? One Russian expert interviewed by the Monitor thinks so:

"Look at Iraq. The US lost interest in it, and nobody cares if it's becoming engulfed in civil war," says Vadim Kozyulin, a researcher with the PIR Center, a leading Moscow security think tank.

"The same process may happen in Afghanistan, and could develop much more quickly. The US effort in Afghanistan is about to end. It's time for Russia to design a new effort, which means we have to take a share of responsibility on ourselves. We're already playing the role of political and military leader in central Asia.... Even though [President Vladimir] Putin previously said we won't send Russian specialists to Afghanistan, the Russian military now says we might create enterprises on Afghan territory to service military equipment. The situation is changing," he adds.

"The situation is changing" is about the only thing you can say with certainty regarding the future of Afghanistan. So will Russia have a stronger presence there after the U.S. and NATO start leaving? Sounds like the Kremlin is at least thinking about it.