Turkmenistan Weekly News Analysis

Accession in general has been a challenging process for post-Soviet countries – with Russia negotiating for 19 years before joining in 2012, Tajikistan applying in 2001, only to become a full member this past March, and neighboring Kazakhstan beginning in 1996, and continuing its negotiations. However, perhaps WTO accession is an ambition for the next generation; a team of Turkmen youth took first place in the Junior Achievement Company of the Year contest among 17 teams from nine countries of the Asia-Pacific region, demonstrating their entrepreneurial skills and global understanding of the market. 

Another ambitious goal Turkmenistan has set for itself is to optimize its capacities in the gas sector, increasing its production of natural gas to 77 billion cubic meters, including about 44 billion cubic meters for export. The challenge is great, as according to the latest BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Turkmenistan reduced its gas output from 66.1 bcm in 2008 to 42.4 bcm in 2010. However, Fast Market Research, an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information, seems to share Turkmenistan’s optimism regarding gas production, saying in their latest report from April 1, that Turkmenistan “will increase at an average annual rate of 8.6% over the course of our forecasting period, rising from 72bcm in 2013 to 152bcm in 2022 as production rises with new output and enhanced development of existing fields. While domestic demand will increase from 23bcm in 2013 to 44bcm in 2022, increased production will still allow for exports of around 108bcm.” However, the report also notes that the poor quality of remaining gas deposits will increase the costs of development, with sour gas in high pressure, high temperature reservoirs making extensive processing necessary. 

This week (April 1 – 7), Turkmenistan is holding a “health and happiness week,” which for many will be more of a basic training rather than a celebration, as governmental officials, regular citizens, students, and apparently even foreign guests will be forced to participate in state-orchestrated sporting events and contests. 

Dashoguz residents were recently ordered to paint their houses white and roofs green at their own cost, and cut trees and bushes all around the city airport and along the road from the airport to the city, in anticipation of the President’s visit on March 28. Turkmenistan has a strange practice of forced subbotniks, in which citizens are ordered to cut or plant the trees, which seems out of step with Berdymukhamedov’s recently stated goal of turning his country into a flourishing oasis.