Perhaps the only tangible achievement of President Barack Obama's visit to Israel last month was getting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to call his Turkish counterpart and issue an apology (of sorts) for the 2010 Mavi Marmara incident, helping set in motion what is hoped will be a restoration of diplomatic ties between Israel and Turkey.
But there are some troubling signs popping up that should cause concern about where this incipient Turkish-Israeli rapprochement might be heading. In an Istanbul press conference yesterday, several Turkish survivors of the military attack on the Mavi Marmara said they would continue to pursue legal action against Israel in Turkish courts, despite the Israeli apology and offer for compensation -- which were made with the expectation that legal proceedings connected with the incident would be dropped. Meanwhile, an Israeli delegation that was scheduled to come to Turkey this week to work out the compensation issue has delayed its trip by a few weeks, supposedly because of scheduling conflicts.
More distressingly, while Secretary of State John Kerry made recent stops in Turkey and Israel in order to help speed up the reconciliation process, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu appeared to be signaling that Israel still had a few more steps to take before relations between the two countries could be restored. From a Wall Street Journal report on Kerry's visit to Turkey:
Secretary of State John Kerry on Sunday pressed Turkey and Israel to move forward with a diplomatic rapprochement President Barack Obama brokered in March, which the U.S. views as central to promoting stability in Middle East hot spots like Syria and the Palestinian territories.
But Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu responded by publicly outlining further steps Israel needed to take in order restore full diplomatic ties, including a complete lifting of the economic restrictions imposed on Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip.
American officials are worried the Turkish diplomat's position could lead Ankara to stall in mending ties with the Jewish state, and provide Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan with an issue to continue attacking Israel's policies in the region. Mr. Erdogan has said he plans to visit the Gaza Strip in May.
"In Israel, in West Bank and in Gaza, the living standards should be improved, and all the of embargoes should be eliminated once and for all," Mr. Davutoglu said at a joint news conference with Mr. Kerry on Sunday in Istanbul. "I hope and pray that the remaining processes will be concluded in the healthiest possible fashion."
These fairly major bumps along the road towards Turkey and Israel restoring their diplomatic ties are likely an indication that the challenges this reconciliation faces, as outlined in this previous post, might be even more serious than previously thought. Still, ending their new-found enmity makes sense for both countries on a number of fronts, especially with regards to trade and energy issues, not to mention security and intelligence matters. Also, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is due to visit Washington next month and its doubtful he would want to have the weight of a failed reconciliation with Israel -- something Obama worked so hard to orchestrate -- hanging around his neck.
That said, so much of what has transpired between Turkey and Israel over the last few years has defied common sense that, at this point, it's hard to expect reason and national interest to start dictating how the two countries will behave towards each other.
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