Compared to previous years, this April 24 -- the day that commemorates the 1915 destruction of the Ottoman Armenians -- has arrived with few diplomatic problems for Turkey. There were no resolutions in other countries' legislative bodies recognizing the 1915 events as a genocide to fight off and no foreign governments to spar with over the issue.
But could this merely be the calm before the storm? In two years, which will mark the centennial of the 1915 events, Ankara will likely be facing a very different picture, with preparations already being made to use the occasion to, as one Armenian website put it, "take Genocide recognition to a new dimension."
Turkey's policymakers are not unaware of the preparations being made for 2015. In fact, as the Hurriyet Daily News's Barcin Yinanc suggests, they have a careful plan for how to deal with what's coming. From her report:
No one, of course, should expect the Turkish government to remain idle regarding these activities.
No doubt Turkey does have a strategy and it will be very important how this strategy is read and analyzed by Yerevan. First of all, Yerevan should not see Turkey’s action plan just as a “counterstrategy” to neutralize Armenians’ efforts for the recognition of the 1915 killings as genocide. Obviously Turkish officials will spare no effort to provide their counterarguments against Armenians’ thesis. But Turkey’s strategy will go beyond mere counteroffensive efforts. It would most probably seek and even force a window of opportunity that would lead to normalized relations with Armenia, in parallel to mending ties between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
And that’s where Armenia should not fall in the same trap as the Greek Cypriots. The Greek Cypriot administration thought and still believes that it could impose a peace deal on its own terms as Turkey would bow to pressure for the sake of entering to the EU. While Turkish-EU relations have stalled seemingly due to the Cyprus question, we all know that accession talks are not going forward not because of Cyprus but because of the big European powers. And so far Turkey has not changed its Cyprus policy.
By the same token, Armenians should not expect Turkey to change its policy of making normalization of its relations with Yerevan conditional on the solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. The last time Ankara tried a slight disengagement between the two, we know how it ended.
While it's comforting to hear that Ankara has a strategy in mind, the triple-track approach Yinanc lays out -- fight Armenian genocide recognition efforts while at the same time pushing Yerevan towards normalized relations with Turkey and resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh issue -- seems like one that will likely bear little but bitter fruit.
Meanwhile, while Ankara's official policy regarding the 1915 events remain unchanged and will likely only harden as we approach 2015, more positive signs can be seen on the domestic front in Turkey. As Today's Zaman reports, this year will mark the first time that international organizations will join the increasingly growing commemoration event that now take place inside Turkey. Writing for the Al-Monitor website, human rights lawyer Orhan Kemal Cengiz, who has been very active on the Armenian issue, takes a look at some of the other ways in which the "taboo" over the issue has been breaking down in Turkey.
Ultimately, what we are left with is something of schizophrenic Turkish approach regarding the Armenian issue. On the domestic front there is progress, while on the international front there will likely be a more concerted effort to fight the Armenian claims. Writing in Today's Zaman, columnist Yavuz Baydar -- who suggests Turkey has had a kind of "glasnost" when it comes to confronting some of the difficult issues of that past -- offers his take on this dynamic:
Turkey's glasnost has been instrumental to defeat the taboo of the last century in Turkey. Today, on April 24, people will gather in Adana, İzmir, Ankara, Batman, Bodrum, Dersim, Diyarbekir and İstanbul. Every year, the number of participants has increased: from 700 in 2010 to 3,000 last year.
But the question is whether Turkish glasnost, if successful in sorting out the Kurdish peace process, will also help lead to a proper apology from Ankara in 2015.
No one is sure. The rapprochement with Armenia being frozen, the pressures of a rich Azerbaijan and its lobbies having increased and the lack of a culture of “institutionalized repentance” are all reasons for pessimism. They are also backed by behind-the-scenes preparations for watering down the memory of the tragedy, by focusing all attention in 2015 on World War I and Ottoman suffering.
It is, of course, on the wrong track. The real virtue is in the double apology: first on the tragedy, second on the denial.
Sign up for Eurasianet's free weekly newsletter. Support Eurasianet: Help keep our journalism open to all, and influenced by none.