After causing a storm of speculation by alleging that Uzbek President Islam Karimov had suffered a heart attack in March, exiled opposition leader Muhammad Solih has said he sees no role for himself in a post-Karimov Uzbekistan.
In an interview with the Moscow-based Fergana News website published on May 16, Solih – who many feel discredited himself with the rumor – insisted his information on Karimov's heart attack and subsequent bedridden condition was accurate and said that Karimov’s appearance looking alive and well on state television several days after the reports surfaced did not contradict his information.
Solih said it had taken his group 15 hours to verify the heart attack and confirm it with "several sources" inside the Uzbek government. "According to our information, the day Karimov suffered a heart attack he had an argument with his daughter, Gulnara [Karimova]," Solih told Fergana News editor Daniil Kislov.
Solih explained that the argument between father and daughter was caused by Karimova’s "frivolous" behavior: Uzbekistan's powerful security service, the SNB, intercepted material compromising Karimova before it appeared in the Russian press to "save the family."
That part is certainly credible: Karimova is a dilettante, an aspiring pop star and fashion designer who posts sultry pictures of herself wearing negligee on the Internet: Enough to embarrass any father.
"And she is partially to blame for his suffering such an attack," Solih explained, "but I absolutely did not think that there would be such a fuss about the heart attack because something similar could happen to anyone."
Solih believes the Western “fuss” was compounded by the American reliance on Karimov for support as NATO withdraws from Afghanistan.
"This is the first reason everyone got startled and frightened, not because they love Karimov but because everything linked to Afghanistan and US plans for the next five years would have become a headache for the White House in case of Karimov's sudden demise," Solih said. "Russia also needs Karimov. Putin can hug and kiss him even if he hates him."
Speaking about post-Karimov succession scenarios, Solih believes there exist only two serious power groups, which revolve around Tashkent and Samarkand. These groups, according to Solih's forecast, would each put forward a candidate and seek the blessing of both Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Deputy Prime Minister Rustam Azimov, who "hail from one clan, but feud with one another because both have claims to power."
When Karimov eventually dies, a scenario where people take to the street is "unlikely," while the "least likely" scenario is an influential figure coming forward to democratize the country by inviting the exiled opposition back to Uzbekistan in a bid to move towards "national unity."
Thus, no place for Solih.
Of potential candidates to replace Karimov, Solih believes Azimov is the most suitable for Washington, whereas Moscow will push for Mirziyoyev. Azimov is the most Western-friendly Uzbek politician entrusted to deal with the West, while the latter is an obscure figure whose management style is said to be brutal and totalitarian – much like Karimov’s.
"There is another candidate everyone talks about: It is Gulnara. Father, of course, very much wants his daughter to head the country because she will never betray him however much she may hate him. But no current bureaucrat supports Karimova, which is why she has no chances after Karimov's death," Solih concluded.
Take this with a grain of salt. Solih has been out of the country for a long time. And others note it is unlikely Karimov would entrust his legacy to someone so embarrassing and with no proven political abilities.
Sign up for Eurasianet's free weekly newsletter. Support Eurasianet: Help keep our journalism open to all, and influenced by none.