A screenwriter taking on an all-powerful, dynastic national leader in a presidential election sounds like a film script that Academy-Award-winner Rustam Ibragimbekov could have written. Except that this one could well be autobiographic for Ibragimbekov.
Elected on June 7 as the chairperson of Azerbaijan's opposition coalition, the National Council for Democratic Forces, screenwriter Ibragimbekov has not yet been nominated as a candidate for office in Azerbaijan's October presidential elections, but local news outlets like the daily newspaper Zerkalo believe that it is only a matter of a few weeks. The coalition plans to nominate a joint candidate at their next convention. Ibragimbekov, 74, told Reuters that, if nominated, “I’ll have to take this on and I am not afraid to."
The rival camp, the ruling Yeni Azerbaijani Party, predictably nominated President Ilham Aliyev to run for a third term in October. Apart from the tightly-run state apparatus, much of the business elite and a largely muzzled media, Aliyev has his family on his side. His wife, Mehriban Aliyeva, was elected the deputy head of the ruling party. The cultivated image of his late father, the celebrated President Heydar Aliyev, also provides support.
Aliyev is widely predicted to prevail, but Ibragimbekov seems to be making the ruling establishment jittery. Yeni Azerbaijan Party’s Executive Secretary Siyavush Novruzov scoffed that the National Council is a collection of “anti-national” no-good-niks with no chances for success. Government-friendly news media eagerly dole out accusations of the council being a part of a Kremlin scheme.
But the Moscow-based Ibragimbekov cannot be easily nudged out of the way, smeared or put in jail. Apart from the fame secured via Nikita Mikhalkov's Burnt by the Sun (1994) and many other popular pieces, he is famous for co-authoring the screenplay for the iconic Soviet movie The White Sun of the Desert (1970). It is the movie that, per tradition, Russian astronauts watch before hitting outer space.
Now the big question is whether or not, if Ibragimbekov gets nominated, his achievements can translate into political firepower in a battle where the other side has all the administrative and financial resources they need. At this stage, any opposition candidate's chances may look iffy, but those Azerbaijanis who do not want to see five more years of the Aliyevs are hoping for a plot twist.
Giorgi Lomsadze is a journalist based in Tbilisi, and author of Tamada Tales.
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