Armenia has reportedly bought long-range rockets from China, in what would be both an escalation of the rocket race between Armenia and Azerbaijan and a dramatic entry of China into the regional conflicts of the South Caucasus. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported:
Armenia has acquired Chinese multiple-launch rocket systems with a firing range of up to 130 kilometers, a military source in Yerevan told RFE/RL’s Armenian service (Azatutyun.am) on Monday.
Speaking on the condition of anonymity, the source declined to specify the quantity of the AR1A systems obtained the Armenian military and the dates of their delivery or give other details of the alleged acquisition.
The Ministry of Defense declined to confirm or deny the report, but that's not unusual for Armenia's secretive MoD So assuming the report is true, how should we interpret it?
In an analysis for Regnum.ru, David Arutyunov puts it in the context of Azerbaijan's recent purchase of Russian Smerch multiple-rocket launch systems, of which the Chinese AR1A are an upgraded version (for example, the Chinese rockets have a range of 130 kilometers, versus 90 kilometers for the Smerch). "A tendency is noticeable over the last decade in which Azerbaijan and Armenia are giving priority in their strategy of arms development to MRLS of great distance and caliber," he writes. And those systems, he notes, would be useful for attacking not just military formations but also strategic economic sites.
Azerbaijan's press seems to have largely ignored the news, but one military expert quoted by Day.az didn't try to hide his contempt:
"They bought MRLSs from China? For God's sake. Let them buy as many as they want." Thus responded Azerbaijani military expert Uzeir Djafarov to this news...
"Armenia isn't doing anything now. They are looking for justifications of their occupation policy, blaming Baku for all sins. I think we shouldn't pay any attention to this, and think more about the military readiness of our own army..."
The Chinese angle is especially interesting. Armenia, not having a big defense budget, normally gets its equipment from Russia at a discount. So did it buy these from China? Or was this part of some sort of deal involving Russia?An analysis on lragir.am gives an unlikely geopolitical explanation: "China has its own "Turkish" problem, in the context of which Armenia's international role in the containment of Turkish expansion corresponds to China's global interests."
This would, I believe, be the first major purchase of Chinese military hardware by any former Soviet country. (Though Armenia did also reportedly buy some of an earlier version of the AR1A, the WM-80 , in the late 1990s.) Just a couple of months ago, China's ambassador to Baku promised that “China didn’t sell arms to Armenia, is not selling and will not sell." Expect him to face more questions like this soon.
Joshua Kucera, a senior correspondent, is Eurasianet's former Turkey/Caucasus editor and has written for the site since 2007.
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