As winter draws closer and temperatures drop, Tajikistan is entering another season of electricity rationing.
Interfax news agency reported from a press conference on October 19 with the head of state energy company Barki Tojik that an official limit would be imposed on the amount of electricity being supplied to households from October 28.
Nozirjon Yodgori told reporters that the rolling blackouts were needed to preserve required water levels at the all-important Nurek reservoir. The Nurek hydropower plant produces 80 percent of Tajikistan’s electricity requirements.
Before the day was out, however, it became increasingly obvious that the rationing regime would have to be brought forward.
In fact, after the press conference, Yodgori announced through state news agency Khovar that rationing had in fact already started, on October 18.
“Electricity will be supplied to the country’s citizens in accordance with payment — the timetable of power supply will be established later. Also, energy supply may depend on weather conditions,” he said.
It is a confusing picture overall, although residents of the capital, Dushanbe, may not be too bothered as they are to be spared rationing.
Shortages had already been reported in rural areas. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Tajik service, Radio Ozodi, said residents of rural areas around the town of Kulyab have been getting power for only four hours in the morning and five hours in the evening since September 29. Speaking to Radio Ozodi, however, Yodgori denied those reports of shortages.
Khovar news agency said cutoffs so far were down to repair works and suspension of supplies to major debtors. That last detail is curious since there is no greater delinquent for unpaid power bills than state-owned aluminum producer Talco, which the World Bank in 2013 estimated accounts for 40 percent of Tajikistan’s electricity consumption. That figure is in great part down to inherent inefficiencies that the World Bank said could be remedied to the greater benefit of the population.
“Once Talco becomes more energy efficient, household electricity consumption during winter months could be increased by 25 percent of average consumption in 2009-2011, or 578 [GigaWatt hours], during winter,” the World Bank said in a statement on an energy audit conducted at Tajikistan’s request.
That power supplies were getting tight was already evident from the start of the month, when Barki Tojik announced it was suspending exports to Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan because of falling levels in the Vakhsh River, which is what feeds the Nurek reservoir.
According to figures reported by Radio Ozodi, Tajikistan supplied 850 million kilowatt hours to Afghanistan, at $0.037 per kilowatt, over the first nine months of the year. Barki Tojik also sold 150 million kilowatt hours to Kyrgyzstan at $0.025 per kilowatt, over the same period. That amount to a total income north of $35 million.
Despite the need for regular power rationing, President Emomali Rahmon rarely fails to seize on an opportunity to declare Tajikistan’s imminent energy independence.
Khovar reported that Rahmon ventured that exact claim as recently as October 19, during the opening of the newly built Kairakum-Asht high-voltage power transmission line in the northern Sughd province. But even that line was completed only with $11 million in funds from the Asian Development Bank, which is indicative of Tajikistan’s complete dependence on outsiders to keep its energy infrastructure in operation.
Sign up for Eurasianet's free weekly newsletter. Support Eurasianet: Help keep our journalism open to all, and influenced by none.