CENTRAL EURASIA PROJECT SERIES EXAMINES OPPOSITION MOVEMENTS IN CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS

In the nearly 15 months since the September 11 terrorist attacks, Central Asia and the Caucasus - two frontline regions in the anti-terrorism campaign - have experienced a marked rise in domestic political activity. Given that many governments in the region have exhibited authoritarian tendencies, and appear intent on maintaining tight control over individual liberties, there is a potential for violence as opposition movements challenge established authority.

Promoting a better understanding of domestic political circumstances is the aim of a series of reports prepared by the Central Eurasia Project of the New York-based Open Society Institute. A new generation of opposition leaders is appearing in Central Asia and the Caucasus. But the new generation's emergence has been obscured by the international community's tendency since the 1991 Soviet collapse to focus on personalities - namely the incumbent heads of state - rather than on broader political processes. As the patterns in each state in Central Asia and the Caucasus vary greatly, the series is taking a detailed look at opposition movements and trends on a country by country basis.

In some states - especially Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Georgia - organized opposition movements have already exerted considerable pressure on their respective governments. In others, such as Azerbaijan, fragmented opposition groups are showing signs of unifying. Meanwhile, in Turkmenistan, opposition leaders in exile have vowed to work for the ouster of the country's president for life, Saparmurat Niyazov, who in late November survived an assassination attempt that he said was organized by his political opponents.

The development of stable domestic political environments in Central Asia and the Caucasus has been hindered by the fact that many leaders in the region persecute their political rivals, repress freedom of speech and exert tight control over mass media. In addition, since the 1991 Soviet collapse, elections in the region have been marked by numerous voting irregularities and instances of outright fraud.

Gaining insight into regional opposition movements, and the political forces motivating them, is becoming increasingly important. Indeed, the most serious threats to stability in most states in Central Asia and the Caucasus are closely linked to domestic political factors.

In general, the definition of what constitutes political opposition is slightly different in just about every country of the two regions. In some, such as Armenia, it is largely limited to political parties that contest elections. In Tajikistan, the main political opposition to President Imomali Rahmonov's administration is part of the government. Meanwhile, in other states - especially those featuring more authoritarian systems, such as Uzbekistan - even independent journalists and human rights advocates can be targeted by the government as opponents of the regime.

Broader understanding of the regional political climate could enhance the international community's response to the stabilization challenges evident in the region. It also could potentially reduce the chances of bloodshed arising out of domestic political confrontation.