An Uzbek Visit to Europe at NATO's Behest

Uzbek President Islam Karimov paid an official visit to Brussels on Jan. 24, where he met with European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, EU Energy Commissioner Gunther Oettinger and NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, among others. This trip was Karimov’s first to Europe in nearly six years and, according to STRATFOR sources in Moscow, was coordinated under the initiative of NATO rather than the European Union.

While Uzbekistan did sign a memorandum on energy cooperation with the European Union and boasted of political ties to the bloc, it is in fact security ties with NATO that were at the heart of Karimov’s rare visit to the Continent. Given the sometimes precarious nature of NATO’s supply routes to Afghanistan through Pakistan and the uncertainty surrounding the Manas air base in Kyrgyzstan, the alliance needs to maintain Uzbekistan’s cooperation on transiting supplies across its territory.

For these reasons, EU leaders were hesitant to meet with Karimov for several years. However, in 2009, sanctions were unexpectedly lifted and the European Union called for dialogue with the Karimov regime. According to STRATFOR sources, the reason sanctions were lifted — and Karimov was finally invited to Brussels — was that Barroso was asked by Rasmussen to resume ties with the Uzbek leader.

It is unusual for the European Union to alter relations with a foreign leader, particularly one with an unflattering human rights record, at the behest of NATO, but Rasmussen views cooperation with Uzbekistan as a priority for the alliance. The dropping of sanctions in 2009 also happened to coincide with negotiations between Russia and NATO over giving the latter rights to transit cargo and supplies over Russian and other former Soviet states’ territory into Afghanistan. This supply route, known as the Northern Distribution Network (NDN), is an important part of the U.S.-led war effort, as it was meant as a supplement to take pressure off the main supply chain into Afghanistan, which runs through unstable territory in Pakistan that is frequently the site of sabotage. An agreement was signed in March 2009 to begin transit of nonlethal supplies through the NDN.

Uzbekistan’s strategic location as part of the NDN makes it valuable to the West and particularly NATO, which wants affirmation from Karimov on his willingness to participate in the supply chain. This is a particular concern as the fate of the United States’ Manas air base in Kyrgyzstan remains in doubt and other Central Asian states such as Turkmenistan have closed off their airspace to NATO aircraft in the past and could do so again in the future. While NATO does not expect to win back the Karshi-Khanabad Air Base that Uzbekistan closed in 2005, it is interested in having the loyalty and cooperation of Uzbekistan in light of the uncertainty of other Central Asian states.

For its part, Uzbekistan, which retains a degree of independence from Russia that other Central Asian states do not have, is looking to extract economic concessions from NATO while also garnering more leverage against Moscow by partnering with the West. However cooperative Uzbekistan has been to this point, its future cooperation, and the price Karimov sets for that cooperation, was the real reason for his trip to Brussels.

Read more: An Uzbek Visit to Europe at NATO's Behest | STRATFOR [3]