From: Justin Burke (JBurke@sorosny.org)
Date: Wed Apr 16 2003 - 10:16:59 EDT
Armenia, USA taking "time-out" to assess relations - Armenian agency
An Armenian news agency says that the imminent visit to the region by
the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group - Russia, France and the USA - and
their joint efforts to tackle the Nagornyy Karabakh problem may act as a
mechanism to smoothe the current disagreements between Moscow, Paris and
Washington over the Iraqi war. It urges the Armenian and Azerbaijani
leaders to ensure the success of the mediators' activity and to resist
the temptation to exploit the present difficulties to avoid making
compromises. The agency adds that eventhough the USA and Armenia have
shown "no visual indications of coldness" over the Armenian presidential
elections and Armenia's position on Iraq, the impression has arisen that
Yerevan and Washington have taken a "time-out" to determine their future
ties. The following is an excerpt from the report in English by Armenian
news agency Mediamax on 14 April:
"In Central Asia and the South Caucasus, we recognize our common
interest in promoting the stability, sovereignty and territorial
integrity of all the nations of this region. The United States and
Russia reject the failed model of "great power" rivalry that can only
increase the potential for conflict in those regions."
This is an excerpt from the joint statement of Russian President
Vladimir Putin and US President George W. Bush about new strategic
relations between the Russian Federation and the United States of
America, signed last May in Moscow.
Immediately after its signing, the document was differently interpreted
and sceptical assessments dominated. Today, after the war in Iraq and
its direct or concealed influence on Caucasian developments, the number
of sceptics has abruptly increased. Opinions abandon that regardless of
the signed declaration, the USA and Russia will soon return to the model
of rivalry of "great powers". To our point of view, the development of
the situation in the coming several months will be in great extent
conditioned by the policy of the South Caucasian states and not by the
actions of the United States and Russia in the region.
Last week, Armenia's ambassador to the USA, Armen Kirakosyan said that
Armenian-US relations are "deeply rooted and strong". Speaking at the
Armenian Assembly of America National Advocacy Conference's
congressional reception, Armen Kirakosyan noted that "several times in
the last century, the United States government extended critical and
vital assistance to Armenia in time of need."
At first sight, there is nothing surprising in the words of the envoy:
Over the last several years representatives of official Yerevan have
frequently spoken of the importance of relations with the USA. However,
Armen Kirakosyan's statements were the first after the period of some
indefiniteness in bilateral relations, caused by the US harsh reaction
on violations during the recent presidential elections in Armenia and
Yerevan's refusal to support the war in Iraq. Despite the fact that the
parties showed no visual indications of coldness, there was an
impression that Yerevan and Washington took a "time-out" for determining
their further steps.
Last week, US President George W. Bush finally congratulated Robert
Kocharyan on his re-election as president of Armenia. The presidential
press service did not inform about the details of the message. Armenian
service of Radio Liberty found out only that in his message to Robert
Kocharyan, George Bush expressed confidence that "relations between our
countries and peoples will continue to strengthen".
Most likely, the Armenian side was not satisfied with the content of
Bush's message, which caused the unwillingness of the presidential press
service to reveal its details. Anyhow, the fact of the congratulatory
message itself is evidence that the USA does not cast doubt on the
legitimacy of President Kocharyan and will continue to cooperate with
him.
Speaking at the House International Relations Committee in late March,
Acting Coordinator of US Assistance to Europe and Eurasia Thomas C.
Adams said that "Armenia has made significant progress in creating the
necessary legal and institutional structure for a market-based
democracy,"
At the same time, Adams made it clear that Armenia is not at all the
most important country for the USA in the South Caucasus. This may be
proved by his statements about the volume of assistance which USA
intends to render to Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan in 2004 fiscal
year.
Thomas Adams said that in 2004, the US Administration intends to render
assistance to Armenia in the amount of 49m dollars.
"Given Armenia's size and relative strategic importance, we believe this
to be an appropriate level of assistance," the official said.
The Administration's 2004 request for Azerbaijan is 41.5m dollars. US
Department of State representative said that "as a country with
significant oil reserves, a border with Iran and a strong propensity to
support US interests in the region, Azerbaijan is strategically
significant".
As to Georgia, Thomas Adams said "the United States of America has
important strategic interests in this country" and the Administration's
2004 request for Georgia is 75m dollars.
Thus, we have the following picture - Armenia is of "relevant strategic
importance" for USA, Azerbaijan demonstrates "strong propensity to
support US interests", and in Georgia the USA has "important strategic
interests".
Georgia is now the arena where the US-Russian disagreements in the
Caucasus become apparent. This week, Russian Foreign Ministry expressed
anxiety with the US-Georgian agreement on cooperation in the sphere of
defence, which envisages the free entrance of the US military to
Georgia, the deployment of the US military equipment there, the right to
freely cross the Georgian border in both directions, as well as the
right for freely moving the US warplanes, ships and land-based vehicles
on its territory. Russian Foreign Ministry stated that it did not
understand the reasons for "such a sudden and extreme military activity
in the Caucasus - a very sensitive region for Russia from the point of
view of security." [passage omitted]
As to Azerbaijan, it has lately actively spoken of its readiness to
expand military cooperation with the United States. Azeri Defence
Minister Safar Abiyev is going to pay a visit to Washington on the
invitation of US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld in the near future.
Taking into account the fact that the Azerbaijani-Russian relations have
considerably improved over the last several years, official Baku has not
yet become the subject of Moscow's "diplomatic anger". However, the
situation might change if we assume that Russian-US disagreements
deepen.
Armenia is probably safeguarded from such developments yet. Despite the
frequent statements by Armenian Foreign Minister that the Armenian-US
military cooperation, which was commenced last year, "attaches
additional sense and quality to our relations with the USA", Russia did
not express dissatisfaction with Yerevan's plans. This may be explained
in several ways. First of all, Armenia is the only real ally of Russia
in the Caucasus and Moscow's excessive pressure might force Yerevan to
give up its complementary foreign policy and join the openly Westernized
course of its neighbours. Secondly, by developing military relations
with USA, Armenia - Russia's military-political ally and active
participant of the Collective Security Treaty - willy-nilly becomes a
"symbol" of modern world, where there is no strict division in accord
with the principle of belonging to this or that security system. We
think that it is equally profitable both for Russia and for the USA to
use Armenia as such "symbol".
Russia, France and the United States of America, which harshly differ in
the opinions concerning the resolution of the Iraqi problem, are the
participants of the OSCE Minsk Group for Nagornyy Karabakh conflict
resolution - and the future of the Caucasus in many respects depends on
its success.
Co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group are intending to visit the region in
the near future. In our opinion, even if the mediators do not voice any
new initiatives on the settlement of the Karabakh conflict (which will
most likely happen), the fact of the Russian, US and French officials'
joint visit to the region will have a vital psychological importance
first of all for the OSCE Minsk Group mediator-states themselves. The
Nagornyy Karabakh settlement might become the "link" that will allow
re-establishing the chain of cooperation between Russia, USA and the
European Union (in the person of France). Moreover, such precedent
already exists.
According to Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan, at the
Kocharyan-Bush meeting, held after the negotiations in Key West in April
2001, it was noted "indirectly" that Nagornyy Karabakh settlement
process provided Russia and USA with a real chance for joint activity.
[passage omitted elaborating]
It cannot be ruled out that this time also the joint efforts for the
resolution of the Nagornyy-Karabakh conflict will become the mechanism
which will allow smoothing away the disagreements between Moscow, Paris
and Washington. Though, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan should
make huge efforts so that the mediators' activity was a success. We can
only hope that Kocharyan and [Azerbaijani President Heydar] Aliyev will
resist the temptation of playing on the contradictions of
mediator-states concerning other international problems for not making
inevitable compromises.
Source: Mediamax news agency, Yerevan, in English 1045 gmt 14 Apr 03
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