From: Justin Burke (JBurke@sorosny.org)
Date: Mon Feb 24 2003 - 09:55:08 EST
Below please find the fortieth issue of the electronic Press Club weekly
Bulletin prepared by Yerevan Press Club, Yeni Nesil Journalists Union of
Azerbaijan and BS Press Association (Georgia), under the South Caucasus
Network for Civil Accord project supported by the European Commission.
IRAQ CRISIS AND SOUTH CAUCASUS
The intensification of Iraq crisis became the main event of the
international politics within the past few weeks. This topic will
continue to be in the center of attention of the leading world media.
The preparations of USA and the majority of NATO members to the war
against Iraq; refusal by Germany, France and Belgium to support the
allies in making the decision on applying force, which according to the
analysts might cause a split in North Alliance; and finally the fact
that the positions of those European states are in accord with the
positions of Russia and China, who believe that the military campaign
against Iraq is inadmissible without the sanctions of the UN Security
Council - those are the realities that identified new global
contradictions and serious changes in world politics.
The further development of the events and possible influence of these
processes on the South Caucasus countries were discussed in interviews
of experts from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia: David Hovhannisian,
orientalist, professor of YSU, Ambassador Extraordinary and
Plenipotentiary; Mehman Aliyev, the director of an independent
Azerbaijani news agency Turan; Nodar Zhgenti, political scientist
(Georgia).
- What is the attitude of political circles and the society in your
countries to the military operation of USA against Iraq?
David Hovhannisian:
- First of all, I would like to note that Armenians have special
attitude to Arabians and Arabic countries, it is historically grounded.
After the Armenian genocide in 1915 by Osman Empire, the Arabic
countries were first to shelter thousands of refugees, who survived the
slaughter. Iraq is one of those countries. Nowadays the Armenian
Diaspora in Iraq counts for about 20 thousand people, there is the
Diocese of the Armenian Apostolic church, there are four Armenian
churches only in Baghdad, one of which is ancient and is of great value.
There are number of settlements on the Turkish border, Zakho and Irvile
in particular, densely populated by Armenians.
This is why the first, maybe purely emotional reaction to the possible
military campaign was the fear for the Armenians in Iraq. The second
factor, which forms the attitude of the political circles and the
society of Armenia to anti-Iraq operation, is the close location of the
military zone to our region, for which the war can have unpredictable
consequences. The third factor is the dangerous trend of intensification
of approaches taken by USA and the European Union to the world politics.
This, naturally, alarms Armenia, because the interests of the countries
of our region will be less and less considered when making global
infrastructure decisions.
These are mainly the arguments of the political circles of Armenia. This
position coincides with the public opinion on this problem, which in
general is that the war against Iraq is an unnecessary measure, and that
the leading states are able to force Baghdad into compliance with
international requests without using force.
Mehman Aliyev:
- The attitude towards a new upsurge in the Iraqi crisis in Azerbaijan
is unequivocal: the people of Azerbaijan are opposed to a forcible
solution to this conflict before the results of the UN weapons
inspection are announced. Some indicate that there is a difference in
the approach to the conflict by the official Baku and the attitude of
ordinary Azerbaijanis towards a friendly Iraqi nation. But this is not
so, which is confirmed by the ideas expressed in Baku on February 18
during a meeting of the chairman of the Russian State Duma committee on
international relations, Dmitriy Rogozin, with the head of the
Azerbaijani delegation to PACE, Ilham Aliyev. Both unequivocally stated
that the positions of Azerbaijan and Russia on the problem of Iraq are
identical: the sides are opposed to a forcible solution to the conflict,
because peace opportunities have not been exhausted yet.
Nodar Zhgenti:
- Opinion polls show the sympathies of a greater part of the Georgia
population are not lying with the USA. Actually, people have condemned
the method chosen to fight Saddam Hussein's regime. The public censure
has grown now that the Iraqi authorities have given UN inspectors a
go-ahead to visit all objects raising the least suspicion. Anyway, they
have succeeded in convincing the world community of this. Most
respondents believe the USA has been exceeding its authority, just as it
did in Yugoslavia, and is more interested in Iraqi oil than some
chimerical nuclear weapons.
The government's position is difficult to fathom. President Eduard
Shevardnadze has repeatedly changed his views on the Iraqi crisis. First
he called to take all chances available to have the situation resolved
peacefully. Later he shifted to support Washington's aggressive
intentions and even said he was ready to put local military aerodromes
and infrastructure at the USA's disposal. Still later the head of the
state denied his belligerent statements in an interview to the national
radio, after the local politicians had stirred up a regular anti-Iraqi
hysteria. We may try to explain these frequent shifts in views, however
the attempt will take us too far.
A much more consistent stance on the issue has been taken by the
Georgian Orthodox Church, that came out with a special statement
appealing to the civilized world to prevent a war in the Persian Gulf.
- Can the Iraqi crisis influence the order existing for the past ten
years?
David Hovhannisian:
- Yes, it can. A certain balance of powers should exist in the world. I
think there is a great example of political perspicaciousness, the
Vienna congress of 1815, when the countries-winners handled their
winnings in such a fair manner that never wounded the dignity, the
national pride of France. Moreover, there was such an ideal balance of
powers in Europe that it stayed until the 1914, that is almost for a
century. But there's another contradictory example - the Versailles
peace, when Germany, defeated in the First World War was so humiliated,
that soon started preparing for the new war.
Misbalance of powers even in a separate region can cause serious
consequences. Thus, already 20 years ago in the West some publications
appeared from time to time (which was even more often after the Persian
Gulf war of 1990) about how to demount Iraq and to form, according to
different opinions, from 3 to 7 states, based on ethnic, confessional
and other conditions. But all the neighboring countries, driven by many
contradictions had a single opinion: to keep the territorial unity of
Iraq to maintain stability in the region.
When talking about global changes, here on the first place is the
ripening contradiction between the European Union and USA. This factor,
obviously, will be defining one in the future. The European Union is
also trying to find some common grounds with Russia, China and India.
Actually, the unifying Europe is fighting for a real political formation
of its economic and financial powers. A derivate, or better to say, a
part of this process was the introduction of a new currency, the Euro,
which is now competing with the dollar.
Objectively, the world cannot exist with one pole for a long time.
Inevitably, another pole will be formed. It is too early to talk about
how this will happen. But in geopolitics one can observe the law of
counteraction. Eurasia and the Atlantic states have contradicting
interests. Whereas Zbibnev Bzezhinsky, a famous American political
scientist correctly noted, that it is the first time when a non-Eurasian
country became a dominating factor in Eurasia. This is only good from
the US point of view, but is an anomaly in terms of geopolitics.
As to the Iraq crisis, it became a sort of a catalyst, focusing the
attention of the international community on those contradictions and
changes. The world today is asking a question: what will happen after
the war in Iraq and, what is important, how such global world decisions
will be made in the future? The UN, which carried an important mission
in the period of the "cold war", now is in contradiction with the US.
The Yugoslavia bombings showed, that NATO is not able, or, at least
should not decide who should be punished and to whom amnesty should be
granted, because such decisions are not legitimate. The world demands
legitimacy. To all appearances, the global decisions should be made in
the USA-European Union format and including Japan, Russia, China,
Islamic Conference Organization and some other states. The Big Eight can
be a good base for that, possibly in a little expanded structure.
Mehman Aliyev:
- It is hard to say at this point what the new geopolitical map of the
world will be like in the post-crisis period, because the UN inspectors
have not finished their work and the decision on military action has not
been made yet. It is beyond a doubt that superpowers are first of all
guided by their own interests. But the opponents of the globalization
idea have got to understand the true nature of this conflict. We could
talk about different possible scenarios of this conflict for hours on
end, but that is not the topic of this interview. I can only say one
thing for sure: such basic international principles as territorial
integrity, sovereignty and inviolability of borders must be respected.
They are the pillars and guarantors of the modern world order and
international stability. If they are ignored, it could certainly lead to
a whole chain of crises and will eventually dramatically change not only
the world map but also the centuries-long principles of relations
between states.
Nodar Zhgenti:
- I think Washington has come to the critical point, or, let's say, has
gone too far in its intentions. Iraq is not a Yugoslavia torn by inner
discrepancies. Here the USA may effectively find itself confronted with
the so-called Arab or Islamic world. Indeed, Hussein is disliked by his
own kin. He will never be forgiven for the war in Kuwait. His regime
cannot be defined as traditional in the Arab world. Iraq cannot be
called a fundamentalist Islamic state. And still he is one of their
family, a "black ship" as he may be. And most Arab countries will hardly
be happy at having him beaten in a struggle, which will hit hard the
population too.
The war in Iraq may in the long run lead to a serious confrontation
between the West and East. This is the main thing. This is the danger.
- According to you, how the new war in the Persian Gulf can influence
the situation in South Caucasus?
David Hovhannisian:
- I wouldn't call it a war in the Persian Gulf. I think the operation
will be localized and will be limited to several regions and the capital
of Iraq. In any case, judging from the reaction of the international
community, there are hopes that the depressant mechanisms will work,
which will prevent the expansion of military activities.
But obviously, the operation against Iraq will be implemented in one way
or another. Too much money is already spent at it. After September 11,
USA feels intrinsic necessity to use force against the so-called
countries-outcasts. The public opinion of the international community
overall is prepared to the fact that Iraq should be "punished". But
this is the one side. The other side is the opposition of the dollar and
the euro, which stirred the activity of the States to toughen the
control over the main hydrocarbon resources of the planet, thus
providing for a long-term superiority over Europe.
However that may be, but the negative consequences of the war against
Iraq, depending on its scale, can influence the situation in our region.
Possibly, there will be a flow of refugees. For example, Armenians from
Iraq will move to Armenia. Or Turkmens who live in that country will
decide to move to Azerbaijan or Turkey, while representatives of other
communities will move to Georgia. Possibly, some serious problems will
occur with transportation of freight on main roads located near the
military action areas or places where the army will be located.
But the most alarming is the possibility of the explosion of oil fields
and the risk of an environmental disaster, which can affect our region.
It is known, that the consequences of such explosions in Kuwait during
the first Persian Gulf War are continued until this day. It is clear
from many publications that the oil fields in Iraq are mined. But unlike
Kuwait, this time abyssal layers of oil can be exploded, the
consequences of which are completely unpredictable. In any case war is a
way to shorten the life on the planet. And understanding of that stirs
the anti-war dispositions.
Mehman Aliyev:
- We have already said that it will have a global effect on many regions
with lurking or latent conflicts. If the war starts, it will, of course,
tell on our region as well. Middle and Near east, Central Asia, etc. -
these regions cannot be described as having achieved a high level of
democratic development. There are many explanations of that, the main of
which is of economic nature. By the will of fotnure or God or whatever,
the peoples inhabiting all these neighboring states possess incredible
reserves of natural wealth. Under the circumstances of a market economy
in the world this can mean only one thing - the independent possession
of power and capital, which cannot but annoy the countries striving to
dominate the world. Unfortunately, the contradiction is that the main
supwerpowers with imperial ambitions are at the same time the founders
and defendersof democratic values. And a democratic state in the modern
world is an undeniable indicator of a civilized and fair public
structure. Thus, by announcing thei desire to attract the countries of
the above-mentioned regions to democracy, the world leaders, whether
they want it or not, do not tell the truth: they need the oil no less
that democracy.
The war in Iraq, if it does take place, will not by the last link in the
chain of developments masterminded far from our region. In other words,
Iraq will not be the last state among the countries punished for the
lack of democracy. And since none of the regimes currently existing in
the South caucasus can be described as being democratic, one can say
with a great deal of confidence that changes in state structure are also
in store for Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan. Regardless of how the
developments around Iraq will unfold, there is no alternative to
democracy in our region. And that must be welcomed.
Nodar Zhgenti:
- There will hardly be any direct impacts. However, things may take a
new turn if the USA, should it succeed, tries to upgrade its influence,
which is already weighing much, in the region. This will be facilitated
by the fact Russia is at the moment not in a position to effectively
confront the USA or step up its own influence.
Georgia tried and, maybe, will try again to take advantage of the Iraqi
crisis. Hence the offer of aerodromes and military bases to be used -
during the war and in a post-war period, as the authorities said - by
the American armed forces. However, so far Washington has for some
reasons been lingering
The previous issues of the Bulletin can be viewed on the web:
www.pressclubs.org
The Press Club regional Bulletin is issued on Mondays.
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