THE YEAR IN REVIEW

INTRODUCTION

1998 may be classified as the year the Tajik peace process began to consolidate itself. The year started with the UTO unilaterally declaring suspension of its participation in the CNR. They cited the President’s lack of support, delays in appointments of UTO personalities to top government positions and incomplete realization of the Amnesty law as reasons for these steps. Meanwhile, the Government complained of the Opposition’s forced recruitment of young men, the non-release of POW’s, and the Opposition’s less-than-complete control over field commanders in and around Dushanbe. This shaky start to the year continued with the Opposition’s reluctance and delay, in February, in issuing an order for UTO Fighters to assemble in designated assembly areas.

Meanwhile, during the months of February and March, a number of confrontations between personnel at MOI checkpoints and Opposition forces, led to accusations on both sides of criminal acts and of violating the peace agreement. These complaints, in hindsight, were the sparks which set off fighting in Kofarnikhon and Eastern Dushanbe in March and May respectively. Though the fighting did not escalate, these events presented a serious challenge to the peace process, which was soon exacerbated in May by the Majlisi-Oli’s rejection of the Law on Political Parties which, contrary to the General Agreement, would ban the activities of Islamic-based political parties, most notably the Islamic Renaissance Party.

This scenario stands in sharp contrast with the current climate, although significant problems persist.

The most notable positive development is the relationship which appears to have evolved between President Rakhmonov and Mr. Nuri, who now meet regularly to discuss issues related to the implementation of the General Agreement. This rapprochement is notable in many fronts, including during the recent high level visit to Teheran where the delegation, headed by President Rakhmonov, also included two members of the UTO, notably First Deputy Prime Minister Turojonzoda, whose return to Tajikistan was a highly contentious issue only ten months before.

The contrast to the beginning of the year is also seen in the numbers of UTO fighters who have registered, despite continued delays in implementation of the Amnesty Law and appointments. Indeed, UTO fighters have taken an oath of allegiance to the armed forces of the Republic, passed medical examinations, and the process of the "review for fitness to serve" (attestation) is continuing. This progress is most certainly fraught with on-going problems, such as the low ratio of fighters to weapons on one side and the lack of progress on the process of integration on the other. However, the climate of cooperation and collaboration between the two parties has reached an unprecedented level compared to the beginning of the year.

Indeed, since May, no armed confrontations have taken place while Government and Opposition have collaborated on two occasions: to eliminate the unaffiliated armed groups of Saidmukhtor Erov and Ravshan Gafurov and to repel Makhmud Khudoberdiev’s forces which attacked Leninabad in early November. Furthermore, during the last session of the Majlisi-Oli, a new version of the Law on Political Parties, which was drafted by a Conciliatory Commission established by the President, was adopted into law, allowing the future legal functioning of the Islamic Revival Party.

Though the analysis above paints a cautiously optimistic picture, important stumbling blocks remain. Most notable during the year was the Tajik authorities’ inability to control the rising level of violent crimes and politically motivated murders. The brutal killing of four UNMOT staff during a routine patrol in July, and the tragic loss of Mr. Otakhon Latifi, Chairman of the CNR Legal

Subcommission, shocked the international community and illustrated the precarious security situation faced by those working to bring peace to Tajikistan. In fact, many questioned whether groups opposed to the peace process were not responsible for these actions which seriously threatened to derail the peace process. Another important source of concern is the fact that the perpetrators of these crimes have not yet been brought to justice. In short, Tajik nationals and international staff members continue to work in a volatile and precarious environment, most recently evidenced in December by the shooting of a German Agro Action worker in the Zerafshan Valley near Khojand. Sadly, the lack of security, combined with the slow progress in the implementation of the agreements, has led some sections of the international community to withhold funds which were pledged at the Vienna Donor Conference in November 1997 and at the Consultative Group meeting in Paris in the summer of 1998. However, other sections, such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, have assessed the economic progress in the country as reasonable and have pledged funds for specified projects. They argue that supporting the economic progress of the country could be a major element in strengthening the peace process.Another important shortcoming during the year was the striking lack of progress on amendments to the constitution, which are to pave the way for a nation-wide referendum. The CNR spent a number of sessions discussing the issue, and despite tentative agreements, no substantive progress has been registered in this front. Recently, the CNR agreed that discussions regarding non-contentious issues would take place until a decision is taken on the issue of secularism.

It is important to note that throughout the year Contact Group of Guarantor States and Organizations was actively seized of the issues facing the Tajik parties as they worked towards implementation of the General Agreement. On several occasions, the good offices of CG members were called upon in order to help resolve one impasse or another. Furthermore, CG was invited to attend several CNR meetings in order to be fully briefed about on going issues; in its part, CG invited, on several occasions during the year, Chairmen of the Subcommissions as well as the Chairman and Deputy Chairman of the CNR, to brief CG about the work of the CNR and matters related to the peace process.

1999, therefore, may be approached with optimism as well as certain concerns: Optimism because positive developments have been registered to date, and the peace process has certainly picked up momentum. The old conflicting parties appear to be making significant progress in establishing independent dialogue for crisis resolution. Indeed, many on both sides now regard the General Peace Agreement signed under the auspices of the United Nations as the most important single document in the recent history of Tajikistan. Almost all concerned admit that there is now no going back on the peace process. Indeed, 1999 could be viewed as an even more important year than 1998 in the calender of efforts for establishing democracy in Tajikistan provided elections are held as expected. Nevertheless concerns remain, especially because there are still so many armed men unaffiliated to either side on the streets of the capital and on other major cities in the country and because the state of security both for Tajik nationals and foreigners remains precarious. As far as the peace process is concerned there are still serious concerns about the slow implementation of the Protocols registered in the General Agreement. Both signatories as well as the international guarantor states of the Contact Group express concern that the slow pace of the implementation may lead to further intrigues on the part of those who could be considered as the enemies of peace in Tajikistan. Indeed, the transitional period, which was foreseen by the General Agreement as lasting 18 months, is expected to last several more due to delays in the implementation of the Protocols. The chart below succinctly draws attention to the tasks which have been accomplished to date and those which remain for 1999.

STATUS OF IMPLEMENTATION OF THE GENERAL AGREEMENT

STATUS OF REGISTRATION, MEDICAL ATTESTATION

AND OATH TAKING OF UTO FIGHTERS

Updated based on information provided by the CNR Military Subcommission as of 24 November 1998

 

 

F OSCE Permanent Council in Vienna Studies the Situation in Tajikistan

On 17 December, the OSCE Permanent Council met to address, among other things, the question of Tajikistan. Ambassador Marin Buhoara, Head of the OSCE Mission in Tajikistan, briefed the Council which noted that the peace process in Tajikistan has survived serious challenges during the past few months. It also looked positively on the increasingly more cohesive Tajik leadership which is making efforts to implement the provisions of the General Peace Agreement. The Council also found that the peace process needs to gain further momentum to become definitively irreversible, particularly as the time for elections nears. Lastly, it stated that if the peace process maintains its vitality, 1999 will be pivotal year for reconciliation and the consolidation of democracy in Tajikistan.

F High Level Tajik Delegation Visits Teheran

The Tajik delegation, led by President Rakhmonov paid an official visit to Iran on the invitation of the moderate Iranian President, Ayatollah Mohammed Khatami. The delegation included, as its number two official, Mr. Akbar Touranjonzoda, one of the most prominent opposition figures who returned to Tajikistan only about ten months ago, after several years of living in exile, in the post of First Deputy Prime Minister. The Tajik delegation met with the Iranian leadership, including the spiritual leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khameini, as well as the Head of Iran’s Expediency Council, Hujatulislam Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the Speaker of the Parliament, Ayatollah Ali Akbar Nateq Nuri, all of whom expressed Iran’s willingness to further support the peace process in Tajikistan and to expand cooperation in the fields of economy and culture. During the visit, which was reviewed by local and international media in a very positive light, a number of bilateral economic agreements were signed. Also, according to the Tajik Transport Minister, Tajikistan and Iran concluded an agreement for a loan totaling 25 million USD, for developing roads and other infrastructure projects in Tajikistan.

F IMF Delegation Visits Tajikistan

This month, an IMF delegation visited Dushanbe to assess macro-economic conditions in the country. The head of the delegation noted positively Tajikistan’s efforts to keep the budget deficit under control and to move ahead with privatization as well as land reforms. He also pointed out that consultations in Washington had led certain members of the donor community to begin considering rendering assistance in kind (USA) and cash (Switzerland) to the country.

Government of Tajikistan made public the amount of credits received from international financial institutions in 1998. Overall Tajikistan received 160 millions of USD in different kinds of credits. The World Bank was the leading creditor with 45 million dollars, IMF 26 million in addition to 25 million which is already in pipeline, Asian Development Bank 20 million dollars, followed by Islamic Development Bank with 17 million.

F Update on the Work of the Joint Central Review Commission (JCRC)

The JCRC has completed its work in Kofarnikon and Leninsky Districts, though the final results have not been disseminated yet. The Chairman of CNR Military Subcommission has informed that a total 1164 fighters have been attested thus far. The Committee will continue with its attestation work in Dushanbe, focusing on the fighters of Mirzo Ali and Hoje Ali and then move on to the Karategin Valley. The deadline for completion of this work is tentatively set for 15 January.

F Update on Completion of Stages One and Two of the Military Protocol

On 25 December, the UTO announced that all its facilities, including training camps and bases outside Tajikistan are officially closed and all its fighters repatriated. This public statement constitutes partial completion of the first stage of the Military Protocol. Meanwhile, a special commission has been tasked with studying outstanding issues related to completion of the other provisions of the Protocol. The CNR is expected to hear the findings of this commission during the last week of December.

F Shooting of German Agro Action Staff Member

On 17 December a group of GAA employees traveling in their marked vehicle from Zeravshan valley to Khujand were fired upon -- allegedly without warning -- by heavily armed soldiers in camouflage uniforms, who were accompanying a convoy of 5-6 trucks, at the Shahristan pass. As a result, one nationally recruited GAA employee was heavily wounded with a pistol bullet in his head and was later transported to the hospital. GAA will suspend its activities in the Zerafshan Valley. The German Embassy is taking appropriate steps to address the matter. On 22 December, UNMOT raised this issue with Foreign Minister Nazarov who expressed his intention to pursue the matter with the power ministers. UNMOT also raised the issue with the Chief of Staff of the Ministry of Interior requesting him to undertake a prompt investigation.

F Tajikistan Ratifies Pivotal Instruments on Human Rights

On 9 December the President of Tajikistan, Mr. Imomali Rahmanov, signed and handed over --in a special ceremony held at the Presidential Palace -- to the U N Special Representative of the Secretary General in Tajikistan, Mr. Jan Kubiš, three of the most significant United Nations human rights instruments: the International Covenants on Civil and Political Rights and Social and Economic Rights and the Optional Protocol to the Covenant on Civil and Political Rights.

The Human Rights Covenants --which had been ratified by the Majlisi Oli on 13 November -- provide international standards for basic and fundamental human rights protections across all spheres of life. The right to work and to earn a decent standard of living; to equal pay for work of equal value; the right to a basic education and equal access to higher education; the right to health care; the freedom to worship according to his or her conscience and to hold and express opinions according to ones own beliefs; to engage in political activity and to vote are but a few of the rights and freedoms guaranteed by these documents. In addition, the Optional Protocol provides a mechanism by which an individual citizen may file a complaint directly to the United Nations Human Rights Committee that his or her rights have been violated. This mechanism may be used once all internal domestic remedies have been attempted. The instruments of accession for each of these documents were delivered to the United Nations on December 9, 1998. They enter into force in the country three months from that date.

F Tajikistan Represented in Block Humanitarian Appeal Organized by UN in Geneva

UNDP Resident Representative Paolo Lembo traveled to Geneva to attend a block humanitarian appeal, of which Tajikistan was one of 15 countries to be represented. He noted that more work should be done in order to raise the awareness of members of the international community about conditions, both political and economic, prevailing in Tajikistan.

F WFP Agrees to Provide Food to Assembly Areas

Following requests from the CNR and Government to SRSG Kubiš, the WFP has agreed to provide food for a period of two months to disarmed fighters in the assembly areas around the country. This aid has been agreed upon on the premise that demobilized fighters will be put through civic education and other training after the two month period. Currently, discussions are underway on organizing the distribution of this humanitarian assistance.

Happy New Year from UNMOT!!!