From: Justin Burke (JBurke@sorosny.org)
Date: Mon Nov 20 2000 - 11:22:44 EST
COMPOUNDING A DEMOGRAPHIC DISASTER
By Paul Goble
President Vladimir Putin's suggestion that increased
immigration from former Soviet republics could help solve
Russia's demographic crisis may trigger new problems in both
those countries and Russia itself as well as in relations
between the two.
Speaking in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk on 17
November, Putin said that "we could have a perfect
opportunity to attract labor resources from the former USSR
through immigration." Moscow, he added, would have to rigidly
control where such migrants settled, noting that "in our
country, the immigrants settle on the Black Sea coast and
live in Sochi," while in reality such people are most needed
in Siberia and other regions.
And while Putin was not specific, he almost certainly
hopes that this immigration will consist primarily of some of
the more than 20 million ethnic Russians who remain in the 11
former Soviet republics and three Baltic states rather than
of non-Russians from these countries.
But regardless of whether that is the case--although
Putin's remarks elsewhere strongly suggest that it is--his
proposal now highlights both the seriousness of Russia's
demographic situation and the political risks he is willing
to run to try to address it.
The extent of Russia's demographic debacle was outlined
the same day by Russian Labor and Social Development Minister
Aleksandr Pochinok, who told the State Duma that the
country's demographic situation now threatens not only
economic progress but also national security. The population
of the country, he said, has fallen by 6 million since 1992
and could sink another 7.2 million by 2015 if current trends
continue. In such an event, Pochinok added, Russia would fall
from the seventh largest country in the world in terms of
population to the 14th.
Pochinok also noted that the extremely high death rate
and low birth rate in Russia are "incomparable" with the
demographic situation elsewhere in Europe, and he noted that
in the last year, average male life expectancy in Russia fell
below the pension age "for the first time ever." This means
that Russia may soon face not unemployment but a lack of
workers for the economy, he argued, adding that such a
shortfall would represent an additional restriction on
Moscow's ability to maintain a sizeable military force.
Pochinok told the Duma that the Russian government has
"worked out" a demographic policy for the future to change
these negative trends, but he gave few details. Consequently,
Putin's remarks on the same day take on greater importance as
a clue to future Russian policy.
But to the extent they do, the Russian president's words
point to serious problems ahead across the region. The non-
Russian countries could be the most affected. If a large
number of ethnic Russians in these countries--almost all of
whom are citizens of the states in which they live--were to
respond, their economies would be negatively affected and
ethnic tensions exacerbated, possibly leading some to view
ethnic Russian communities there as disloyal.
And if a large number of their own co-ethnics were to
move to Russia, something Putin does not appear to want,
that, too, could hurt the economies of these states,
especially given Moscow's exit from the CIS visa free regime.
But Russia too could face numerous problems. Since 1991,
Moscow has generally discouraged any Russian return, not only
because of the lack of housing and jobs for such immigrants
but also out of a desire to use its "compatriots" as a
political lever in these states.
If sizeable numbers of ethnic Russians were to return,
that would put a large burden on the country's housing stock
and challenge the government's ability to ensure that the
immigrants went where Moscow would like them to go.
But if sizeable numbers of non-ethnic Russians were to
enter the country, that would almost certainly exacerbate
ethnic tensions in Russia itself and possibly lead to a new
outburst of extremist nationalism.
Russian politicians, such as Vladimir Zhirinovskii and
Moscow Mayor Yurii Luzhkov, have played on the anger many
Russians feel toward "persons of Caucasus nationality."
Opinion polls show that relatively few Russians would welcome
even more such Gastarbeiter in their midst. And because of
the consequences such immigration would have in both the non-
Russian countries and in Russia itself, such a policy almost
certainly would cast a shadow on relations between Moscow and
the 14 other states involved.
For most of the last decade, both Russian and non-
Russian leaders generally have sought to promote the
integration of all those living on the territories of their
countries as the best means of preserving both internal
stability and ethnic accord. But because the situation in
Russia has become so grave, Putin now appears prepared to
move in a very different direction, one that could add a
political dimension to that demographic disaster.
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