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Visit of the President of Russia
to Uzbekistan: has Moscow Outplayed Washington?
The visit of the new President of the Russian Federation
Vladimir Putin to Tashkent that took place on May 18-19 became
the most important political event. Numerous articles in local
and Russian mass media as well as unprecedented security measures
undertaken in Tashkent during the visit became a serious evidence
of its significance. "Nezavisimaya Gazeta" that
traditionally shows its interest in the issues related to
the Central Asia already back in April wrote that the President
of Uzbekistan had to make uneasy choice: "Given that
Uzbekistan prefers to remain a temporal power, whom should
Uzbekistan rely on in its struggle against the Islam fundamentalism
– Russia or the USA? This is the very issue that Islam Karimov
wants to understand. No matter what they say about him, his
heart is still reaching out for Russia with which there are
connected many of his personal good memories.
The same very "Nezavisimaya Gazeta" just before
the visit of Putin to Tashkent has published the article in
which it was stated that Uzbekistan was considering Russia
to be its main strategic ally. "This became absolutely
obvious after the rather cool welcome accorded to Madeleine
Albright, the Secretary of State of the USA, in Tashkent last
month. The head of the American diplomatic agency was unequivocally
given to understand that even for the sake of strengthening
of cooperation with the USA, Uzbekistan was not going to compromise
due to the numerous recommendations and instructions of Washington
that was requiring to introduce significant adjustments in
the policy of the country. In a polite, but rather firm manner
the Secretary of State of the USA was given to understand
that Uzbekistan was not going to unconditionally carry out
the American "orders". It is unlikely that such
a firmness could be possibly displayed at the very moment
when as never before there was need for support from a "strong
ally," if Uzbekistan were not sure that it was backed
up by Russia whose promises could be trusted. To be more precise,
one could trust the promises given personally by V. Putin
to the Uzbek President I. Karimov." As for the Uzbek
newspapers, they believed that the purpose of the visit was
not only in solving the problem of Russia’s military assistance,
but also in admitting the importance of Uzbekistan and the
personality of its President. «The fact that the first visit
of V.Putin to a foreign state after his election as a President
will be his visit to Uzbekistan can be viewed as the admission
of the significance of the role of Uzbekistan not only in
the region, but also in CIS.»
The problems of securing the regional stability in the Central
Asia and protection of the CIS’s Southern borders became especially
critical recently. Naturally, Uzbekistan as well as the other
countries of the region is looking for reliable allies in
guaranteeing its security. The transit of drugs through Tajik-Afghan
border became a bleeding wound, given that the President of
Tajikistan Imomaly Rahmonov announced straight during the
meeting of the Security Council that Tajikistan by itself
would not be able to solve this problem. It is not the right
choice, according to some people, to rely on the assistance
from the USA, despite the numerous conferences and seminars
dedicated to the problems of security. One of such periodical
conferences of the five Central-Asian states with participation
of the commander-in-chief of the central command of the USA
army, general Anthony Zynny, started in Tashkent on the eve
of the visit of Vladimir Putin. Some people believe that «Uzbekistan
is not very happy with the fact that Washington, while proclaiming
that it is ready to assist with the fight against extremists,
is not very generous when it comes to the financial aid. This
forces Tashkent to look at Moscow more and more often.»
Two full days that the Russian delegation headed by V. Putin
has spent in Tashkent were rather saturated. According to
informational agencies, the main attention was paid to the
problems of international terrorism, religious extremism,
and regional security. Unlike Russian newspapers that were
mainly writing exclusively about the military-technical assistance
of Moscow, Uzbek newspapers highlighted "mutually beneficial
character of economic cooperation"; they were underlying
that "this year during the first quarter the volume of
trade turnover between the two countries has increased by
9%, and at present is equals to 1 – 1.5 billion dollars."
At the end of his visit the Russian President has visited
Tashkent Islam University that has been opened in 1999. This,
most likely, became the demonstration of the clear understanding
by Uzbekistan of the place of the Muslim religion in the life
of the society.
The feed-back of the mass media of Uzbekistan on the visit
of the Russian President was absolutely positive. It has been
highlighted that the present visit will become the turning-point
in the newest history of the relations between the two countries.
Islam Karimov has underlined that in Uzbekistan "they
are undoubtedly sure that if it becomes necessary, Russia
will do everything to preserve territorial integrity and sovereignty
of Uzbekistan." It was not by chance that Ram Vyahirev,
the head of "Gazprom" was a member of the Russian
delegation. "Gazprom" has concluded contracts on
delivery of 5 billion cubic meters of gas per year to Russia
as well as on carrying out of prospecting works of Russian
geologists on the territory of the plateau Ustyurt.
Short after the visit on May 22 during the press-conference
Sergey Yastrzhembskyi, an assistant of the President of Russia,
said that Russia would not rule out for itself the possibility
of preventively attacking the bases of terrorists in Afghanistan.
Many considered these words to be sensational. However, according
to Alexey Mironov, a journalist of "Nezavisimaya Gazeta,"
in Uzbekistan this statement did not surprise anybody. "Knowing
the customs of religious fanatics, - the journalist writes,
- the majority of the citizens of Uzbekistan realize that
the real protection of the Central Asia from the international
terrorism may be guaranteed not through negotiations, but
only through very tough military pressure." Later on
the President of Uzbekistan gave the following explanation
to this statement in his interview to a correspondent of "Kommersant"
newspaper: "As for the so called preventive attacks on
the camps of talibs in Afghanistan, nobody is thinking that
over seriously yet, even though Igor Ivanov mentioned about
that again in Minsk….. I can reassure everybody, including
Afghans: we are ready to do that in principle, however, specifically,
this is so far only a touchstone. Nevertheless, it should
be clear that by setting camps of terrorists on his own territory,
one is violating the norms of the international law. This
is dangerous for the side that acts as a host of the bandits."
In the same very interview Islam Karimov told about the reform
of the military forces of Uzbekistan that is at the preparatory
stage. Nowadays, according to the President, the army of Uzbekistan
is already the strongest in the Central Asia. As for the future
army, it will become even stronger. "It will be the army
of specialized units; it will be non-numerous but powerful
army. It will be striking army. However, this does not mean
that we are aiming at fighting outside of our borders. I,
as the President, may assure: our soldiers will not fight
in Kabul. However, Russia needs a strong ally in the South,
and it has it."
Thus, the visit of Vladimir Putin to Tashkent and the statement
made later on by the assistant of the President of Russia
regarding the possibility of preventive attacks on the camps
of terrorists in Afghanistan, most likely were interrelated.
Moscow by itself could not make such a statement without consulting
with Tashkent, because that could be viewed as an attempt
to destabilize the situation in the region, given that this
situation was already rather insecure.
It is obvious that the presence of talibs on the Southern
borders of SIC became nowadays a strong factor that has a
positive impact on integration between Russia and Uzbekistan.
The threat of military invasion at the territory of SIC countries
is to the advantage of Russia, given that at present the countries
of the Central Asia seem not to have any alternative for guaranteeing
their security other then with the assistance of Russia. Thus,
it is quiet possible that Russia may return to the Central
Asia under the scenario where it has the role of not only
the military-strategic, but also one of the most important
economic partners. No matter how paradoxical it may seem,
one may state that talibs quiet help Russia to achieve success
in its geo-political game in the Central Asia. By re-phrasing
the old proverb, one may say that if talibs did not exist,
they would be worthy of making them up.
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