The recent surge in popular enthusiasm for Ahmadinejad's main rival, Mir Hussein Mousavi, has increased the likelihood that the president's neo-conservative backers will resort to rigging the election results. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
What we may be witnessing in Iran these days is a revolution within the Islamic Revolution. If successfully carried out, the net effect would be more like a coup, in which the incumbent president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, tramples on Iran's existing, tangled pluralistic system, and establishes what amounts to a neo-conservative dictatorship with the blessing of the country's spiritual leader.
What we may be witnessing in Iran these days is a revolution within the Islamic Revolution. If successfully carried out, the net effect would be more like a coup, in which the incumbent president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, tramples on Iran's existing, tangled pluralistic system, and establishes what amounts to a neo-conservative dictatorship with the blessing of the country's spiritual leader.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's penchant for loopy one-liners and unsubstantiated allegations may finally be getting the best of him. A raucous presidential debate -- featuring comments so outrageous that Ahmadinejad provoked rebukes from all across the political spectrum -- has energized the Iranian electorate, and riveted attention on the June 12 presidential vote.
The leading presidential challenger, Mir Hussein Mousavi, appears to be gaining a head of steam leading up to Iran's election on June 12. Even though some polls now show Mousavi to be leading the incumbent, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, some experts in Tehran maintain that political change in Tehran is unlikely. Some powerful forces in Iranian politics are unwilling to see Ahmadinejad lose.
With one month to go before Iran's June 12 presidential election, incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's reelection chances seem high. But his candidacy is proving so polarizing that the election campaign could bring about lasting changes to Iran's political landscape.
Just when you thought it was impossible for Iranian politics to get any murkier, controversy has erupted over whether President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made a gesture during a recent visit to Switzerland to signal his interest in normalizing relations with the United States.
By any measure, March has been a horrendous month for Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, one that has seen him suffer a humiliating political defeat at the hand of parliament. It has been the type of month that can be ruinous for a presidential candidate. But in Iran's murky political system, Ahmadinejad remains the overwhelming favorite to win reelection in June.
Iran's current diplomatic mission to Iraq, led by former president Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, aims to bury the mutual hostility that was generated by the 1980-88 war between the two neighboring states. If successful, Iran will retain its influence in Iraq as the United States moves forward with the withdrawal of American forces.
