May 15 could become the official birth date of a pipeline that would help Russia maintain its virtual monopoly of natural gas exports to Europe. Whether the energy export project grows to maturity remains to be seen.
Economic nationalism, a trend that is rapidly gaining strength in Central Asia, appears to be spreading to Mongolia. The Mongolian parliament is set to consider legislation on March 25 that would expand the state's role in the mining sector, the country's most important economic sphere.
Central Asia is a major area of concern for US intelligence agencies, according to an annual threat assessment presented recently by Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell.
Wishing to preserve good relations with Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev and concerned about its influence in the Caspian Basin, the United States is unlikely to challenge his recent constitutional reforms.
Washington policymakers are scrambling to develop tactics that can counter Russia's aggressive action aimed at cementing Kremlin control over Caspian Basin energy and export routes.
US interests in Central Asia can be summarized in three simple words: security, energy, and democracy. Washington needs to refine its regional policy in a way that allows for the continued diversification of US energy supplies, the effective defense of its security interests and the promotion of democratic and free-market values.
As US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice prepares to visit Moscow on October 21, the rapid increase in Georgian-Russian tension is posing a serious diplomatic test for the United States. American policy makers must walk a fine line in trying to encourage a compromise between Moscow and Tbilisi, without assuming too great a diplomatic liability through over-involvement.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a major vehicle for a Chinese-Russian strategic cooperation, is exerting increasing pressure on US strategic interests in Central Asia. Robust engagement with the SCO by the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization would offer Washington the best way of containing the group's rising influence.
Members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization during a June 15 summit forcefully asserted their right to regulate affairs in Central Asia. A declaration signed by the heads of state of all six member states, including Russia and China, is widely viewed as placing the group in direct opposition to the United States in the regional geopolitical contest.
