A political maxim holds that a revolution tends to eat its young. It happened that way with France with its Great Terror; it happened in China with its Cultural Revolution and counter-strike against the Gang of Four; and there's no need to elaborate on what happened in the Soviet Union during the late 1920s and 30s.
Azerbaijan's Muasir Musavat opposition party has announced plans for a demonstration on June 22 in front of the Iranian embassy in Baku to protest what it terms Iranian police's roughshod treatment of ethnic Azeris who opposed the re-election of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Hard-line backers of Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are doubling down on their bet that repression can break popular opposition to his power grab. The storm of protest in Iran over the suspicious presidential election results showed no signs of abating, however.
Iran's presidential election, as marred as it has been by probable fraud and mass protests in Tehran, could ultimately be a boon to US-Iranian relations -- even if Mahmoud Ahmadinejad retains power.
Iran's presidential election is degenerating into a battle of nerves. Protesters remain unwilling to accept blatantly rigged results that appear designed to usher in a neo-conservative dictatorship.
Reformist presidential candidate Mir Hossein Musavi has formally appealed against Iran's election result to the legislative body the Guardians Council, according to a statement on his website.
Tehran, 2009, now has the feel of Madrid, 1936. A large segment of Iranian society feels under siege. This mood forged a coalition of disparate forces to resist what many see as an attempt by incumbent president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to establish an authoritarian-repressive regime.
The recent surge in popular enthusiasm for Ahmadinejad's main rival, Mir Hussein Mousavi, has increased the likelihood that the president's neo-conservative backers will resort to rigging the election results. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
What we may be witnessing in Iran these days is a revolution within the Islamic Revolution. If successfully carried out, the net effect would be more like a coup, in which the incumbent president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, tramples on Iran's existing, tangled pluralistic system, and establishes what amounts to a neo-conservative dictatorship with the blessing of the country's spiritual leader.
What we may be witnessing in Iran these days is a revolution within the Islamic Revolution. If successfully carried out, the net effect would be more like a coup, in which the incumbent president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, tramples on Iran's existing, tangled pluralistic system, and establishes what amounts to a neo-conservative dictatorship with the blessing of the country's spiritual leader.
