Pakistan, with approximately 159 million people, is one of the most populous countries in the Muslim world. It is also a country where radical Islamic ideas have attracted a broad following, and where Islamists already wield a significant amount of political influence. Could Pakistan succumb to an Islamic revolution? The likelihood may not be high -- at least over the near term.
The tendency toward a multipolar configuration of world politics, in which a number of regional power centers compete for hegemony over their spheres of influence within a framework of international agreements and institutions, is a long term process involving incremental gains and losses for the major players.
On October 29, 2004, al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden released a new videotape, revealing the first images of the leader in more than a year. The video offered proof that bin Laden is alive and healthy with access to modern technology. The resurgence of Osama bin Laden emphasizes the threat to the United States and its interests still posed by Islamic revolutionaries.
The recent capture of key relatives and aides to Mullah Mohammed Omar, the fugitive leader of the Taliban, is enabling US and Afghan intelligence officials to tighten the net around him and putting pressure on Pakistan to curb Taliban activities on its soil.
Recent religious rioting and violence in Pakistan has heightened concern about the ability of President Pervez Musharraf's government to maintain stability in the volatile nation. The domestic disarray has potential repercussions for not only the US-led war on terrorism, but also the long-term stability of Afghanistan and all Central Asia.
Whoever occupies the Oval Office after the November 2004 election will have to try to recoup the power that the United States lost during its rendezvous with neo-conservative fantasy.
Questions concerning Pakistan's stability, and its potential reliability as a partner is the ongoing struggle to contain Islamic radicalism in Central Asia, are being fueled by recent moves by President Pervez Musharraf that appear to enhance the military's role in the country's political life.
Pakistan's government on March 30 began pulling troops out of South Waziristan following a 12-day security sweep of the area to root out Taliban and al Qaeda militants. The withdrawal was accompanied by an official admission that no Islamic radical leaders had been killed during the operation, as was earlier claimed.
The Pakistani military's ongoing offensive in tribal areas near the country's border with Afghanistan has turned up evidence that a Central Asian militant group, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, remains active. Pakistani generals also indicate that government troops may have narrowly missed capturing Tahir Yuldashev, the IMU's leading commander.
An agreement was reached in a January 20 meeting between Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and Turkish President Ahmed Sezer over new bilateral cooperation in their fight against terrorism and organized crime. Musharraf, who has called for broadening his nation's democracy after two attempts on his life in December, visited Turkey to sign the pact.
