Joshua Kucera

The possibility of Kazakhstan getting invaded by a foreign country seems remote, but in that unlikely event, which country would Kazakhs count on to defend them? By an overwhelming margin, the answer is Russia, according to a poll from the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies. Via BBC Monitoring:

"To the question: 'In case of aggression against Kazakhstan's sovereignty, what country's support do you count on?'," 63.5 per cent answered "on Russia's support", said Bulat Sultanov, the head of the institute.

Below that, 14.2 percent said they would count on "Islamic states," and 11.5 percent on unspecified Central Asian states. Only 4.3 percent said the U.S., and 3.5 percent said China.

"We are running against a deadline, and they are aware of it," Squires said in an interview, adding that the Pentagon is "going to have to extend, even if it is just in the short term," because no new contractor could assemble in a short time the complicated infrastructure needed to deliver as much as 12 million gallons of fuel to Manas each month.

As far as I'm aware, this is the first time Chuck Squires has been heard from in the media since this whole story broke, and the Post fails to ask what seems to be the most obvious question, which is how on earth his company got a $1.4 billion no-bid contract. But with investigations going on both in Kyrgyzstan and in the U.S. Congress, some answers should be coming soon.

Photo -- and caption -- of the day, from the U.S.'s 1st Sustainment Command (Theater) Public Affairs office:

The foreign ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization countries are meeting in Tashkent, and the big news is that they are working on how to admit new members, reports RIA Novosti:

The foreign ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) have approved a project on the procedure for the adoption of new members, Uzbekistan's top diplomat said on Saturday.

"The document sets out the start of the process of forming a legal base for the expansion of the organization," Vladimir Norov said at a Tashkent meeting ahead of summit in June.

So, who could be next? Uzbekistan has been promoting Pakistani membership, and Iran has also expressed interest in joining. Could the SCO admit Pakistan and not India (which, like Pakistan, is currently an SCO observer)? Would the SCO want to take on the responsibility for collective defense of Iran? The full SCO summit is next month in Tashkent, should be interesting...

Georgia MoD

A 2006 military parade in Tbilisi, in less controversial times

Last year, Georgia canceled its traditional (at least in the Saakashvili era) Independence Day military parade, because opposition protests were going on, and a significant army mutiny had just happened. But the parade is back on this year, reports Civil.ge:

A military parade will be held outside the Parliament on Rustaveli Avenue on May 26 to mark Georgia's Independence Day, the authorities announced on May 19.

Tradition of marking the Independence Day with military parade was restored in 2004 after about eight-year pause. Since then parades were held on each Independence Day on May 26, but last year was an exception.

Civil notes that the tank battalion commander who mutinied cited, in his trial, the planned parade, and its apparent triumphalism even after a lost war, as part of his motivation:

“Many witnesses questioned by the court [those who served in Mukhrovani at that time] were asked how I was explaining my decision to declare disobedience and they were saying that I was protesting against the military parade [which at the time was planned for May 26 to mark the Independence Day],” Gorgiashvili said in his closing statement.

“That really was among the reasons, but I have told other [reasons] to Shmagi Telia and although he said he could not understand, in fact he did understand everything very well and he even agreed with me,” Gorgiashvili said.

Messenger reports that Georgia's political opposition sees a political motive behind the parade:

Russia has recently been complaining about the U.S. and NATO's failure to stem poppy farming in Afghanistan, which fuels a growing heroin problem in Russia. The Christian Science Monitor looks at the issue, and suggests that the problem, if unchecked, may prompt future Russian intervention into the Central Asian republics:

In recent years, Russia and NATO have run a school for Afghan antidrug police in the Moscow-region town of Domodedovo, turning out hundreds of graduates. But despite that cooperation, experts say Moscow is increasingly dubious about NATO's ability to impose order in Afghanistan, and may be seeking ways to expand its influence in Central Asia against the day the United States decides to leave. Some analysts suggest that the Kremlin's recent backing of a coup in Kyrgyzstan could be a sign of more assertive behavior to come.

"The former Soviet states of central Asia are our own backyard," says Tatiana Parkhalina, director of the independent Center for European Security in Moscow. "Moscow doesn't want to stand by while the Taliban and terrorist networks convert the financial resources from drug trafficking into arms and political influence... There is a practical alliance taking shape between drug traffickers and terrorists, and it is a very big threat...."

But a few Russian experts say the Kremlin is hyping the drug issue as a pretext for becoming more assertive in Central Asia.

A U.S. soldier at the Uzbekistan-Afghanistan border, the bottleneck of the Northern Distribution Network

841st Transportation Battalion

We've heard a lot lately about how U.S. military cooperation with Kyrgyzstan, namely the air base at Manas made the Americans sweep complaints about democracy and human rights under the rug. So, is the same thing happening in Uzbekistan, the hub of the Northern Distribution Network shipping U.S. military equipment into Afghanistan? IWPR checks and says, yes:

Umida Niazova, head of the Uzbek-German Forum for Human Rights, believes Washington is ignoring human rights, “It is clear that the new [Obama] administration is ready to cooperate with Karimov’s regime despite the deteriorating human rights record…. There is no indication that the Americans are aligning their cooperation agenda with the domestic situation, the situation with human rights and civil freedoms.

“Obsessed with a successful operation in Afghanistan, the Americans are strengthening dictatorships in neighbouring countries.”

It is not just advocacy groups that are saying this.

“We can definitely say that there is an improvement in the [US-Uzbek] relationship, and it runs the risk of repeating past mistakes,” said Sean Roberts, a Central Asian expert who is assistant professor of international development at George Washington University. “I am worried the US is not paying attention to domestic politics [in Uzbekistan]. And that might be interpreted to mean they are supporting violent dictatorship to profit their strategy for the Afghanistan war.”

Scott Radnitz, a Central Asia expert at the University of Washington, added, “It has been decided that the benefits of the NDN outweigh the costs of cooperating with a repressive regime. Right now, Uzbekistan is an ally of convenience due solely to its geographic position, sharing a border with Afghanistan.”

The IWPR reporters interviewed the U.S. ambassador to Uzbekistan; not surprisingly, he disagrees:

Bellicose rhetoric from Baku towards Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh is nothing new, but the volume seems to have been rising a bit lately, with Azerbaijan claiming that it could attack anywhere in Armenia, and the Armenians responding in kind:

President Serzh Sarkisian said earlier this year that an Azerbaijani assault on Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh would trigger "serious counterattacks." Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian similarly stated in January that Armenian forces have significantly beefed up fortifications around Karabakh in recent years and are prepared for renewed fighting.

Hakobian said the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic's army has received new military hardware and ammunition this year. "[We] have had quite a serious success in acquiring air-defense systems," he said.

So what to make of this? Anna Matveeva, writing in the Guardian, has a sensible analysis:

Encouragingly, Azerbaijan's leadership is risk-averse and not prone to impulsive moves to suit a nationalist agenda. It does not need a war to boost its popularity, because it is already popular. Rationally speaking, the war is unlikely. But military games and sabre-rattling have a tendency to get out of hand. Armenia's internal political problems can give rise to a "now or never" attitude: since the adversary appears weak, the time for a decisive push has arrived.

Our sister blog Inside the Cocoon called attention to news that the CSTO is forming a peacekeeping force, using the unrest in Kyrgyzstan as part justification.

However, the organization appears to be stepping back from earlier plans to build a dedicated CSTO base in Kyrgyzstan, in Osh. Interfax Kazakhstan, via BBC Monitoring:

The Collective Security Treaty Organization [CSTO] has no plans yet to develop its infrastructure in Kyrgyzstan, the organization's Secretary-General Nikolay Bordyuzha told a news conference in Moscow on Friday [14 May].

"There are several Russian military facilities in Kyrgyzstan, including Kant base, which was established to support missions as part of the CSTO. It is active today. There is a reinforced group of personnel there that guards its active infrastructure," Bordyuzha said.

He also said that there was no Collective Rapid-Reaction Forces training centre of any kind in Kyrgyzstan. "There was hypothetical work on the issue of setting it up, but it was not set up," Bordyuzha said.

"There are no further actions planned for the CSTO to develop its infrastructure in Kyrgyzstan. A lot will depend on the turn of events there," Bordyuzha summed up.

A Third Army press release reports:

KULOB, Tajikistan – At the request of the Tajikistan government, Third Army in support of U.S. efforts donated a C-17 load of tents to provide shelter to some of the more than 2,000 people who were affected by the flooding in Kulob, May 7.

"It is our privilege to help our partner and friend, the people of Tajikistan, in their hour of need," said Col. Michael J. Keller, 1st Theater Sustainment Command, Civil Military Operations Center commander. "Our engineering and medical teams will continue to assess the situation to determine where further assistance is required."

Well that's selfless of them, to help out the victims of flooding. And naturally such a humanitarian gesture was done in the low-key, understated way that the U.S. is well known for. Oh, wait...