Why is support for NATO membership in Georgia declining? The U.S. National Democratic Institute has released the results of its latest poll in Georgia, and finds that support for NATO membership is somewhat tepid: 26% of respondents say that they fully support Georgia's NATO membership and 36% say they support it somewhat.
As Civil.ge points out, this is a big drop from less than two years ago:
In a poll by IPM for U.S. International Republican Institute (IRI) in September, 2008, 69% of respondents were fully supportive to Georgia’s NATO membership, plus 17% saying that they somewhat support, with only 8% either strongly or somewhat opposing.
That's a pretty significant drop, and neither NDI nor Civil.ge attempt to explain why. Is it because membership is now a lot less likely than it seemed two years ago, or because the perception of the potential benefits of NATO membership has changed?
Permanent Mission of Russia to NATO official photo
Dmitry Rogozin
In December, NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen asked Russia to provide helicopters for the anti-Taliban effort in Afghanistan. This week, Russia's NATO ambassador Dmitry Rogozin said they would do so -- but with a catch: NATO countries would have to "allow" Russia to sell weapons to them:
“We are seeking an opportunity for the Russian defense industry to trade its products within the alliance's member states. We will earn money and they will acquire reliable quality weapons....
Today we are considering a possible Mistral deal with France and saying how wonderful all this is. My question is the following: Why can we buy helicopter carriers from France, but we are not allowed to sell helicopters to countries like France?"
There is nothing legal preventing Russia from selling weapons to NATO countries. I asked Paul Holtom,
director of the Arms Transfers Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), about this and he sent me a list of several Russian sales over the last decade to NATO members, mainly former Warsaw Pact countries like the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland, but also Greece, Turkey and even the UK.
So what is preventing Russia from selling to NATO members? There are obviously political reasons, as well as interoperability issues. But another cause might be that even Russian officials criticize the offerings of the Russian defense industry. This is apparently what happened in the case of Greece, according to the Russia Defense Policy blog:
Taitiana Gfoeller and Michael McFaul at the May 5 press conference in Bishkek
Reading through the transcript of the press conference during this week's visit by Michael McFaul (President Obama's director of Russian and Central Asian affairs at the National Security Council) to Kyrgyzstan, it's impossible not to get the sense that the U.S. is now on the defensive there. They were clearly stung by accusations that, in an effort to curry favor the previous government to keep access to the air base there, they had ignored human rights problems and blew off the opposition until the April 7 riots that resulted in the overthrow of the government. McFaul spent his entire opening statement refuting that notion. His words rang a bit false, given that pretty much every analyst, and members of the current government/former opposition, are pretty much in a consensus that those accusations were 100 percent correct.
The U.S. ambassador to Kyrgyzstan, Tatiana Gfoeller, chimed in to make the same point. And this is how she explains it:
On a personal note I would like to point out that all of the main opposition leaders have received numerous invitations to my home. I don’t know how many ambassadors you know personally, but I would have to confess that probably among ambassadors, I tend to be a very informal person. So I tend to like to invite people just over for a cup of tea to my residence to talk things over, or to a reception or do some kind of get-together in a very informal way.
It's an interesting time for the CSTO, with the president of Belarus criticizing it for not taking action in the recent unrest in Kyrgyzstan, and questions about the base for the rapid-reaction force base Russia had apparently wanted to build for the CSTO in southern Kyrgyzstan. So it's fortuitous that Nikolay Bordyuzha, secretary general of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, has given an interview to Jane's Defence Weekly (subscription only). Unfortunately, Bordyuzha's interview provides more questions than answers. For example:
Providing stability in a volatile region - particularly in light of the violent ousting of Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev - will be one of the CSTO's most challenging tasks. "Our organisation quickly sent a team to Bishkek to monitor and mediate [alongside] the OSCE, the UN and the EU. ... While we were watching closely, using our joint rapid-reaction force was out of the question," he said....
Should situations such as the one experienced in Kyrgyzstan deteriorate, then KSOR battalions could be deployed to any CSTO member state "with or without a UN mandate, at any time", Bordyuzha noted.
So, why was it "out of the question" to use the rapid-reaction force before, but if the situation in Kyrgyzstan deteriorates, it could be used "at any time"?
Turkmenistan's representatives practicing for Moscow's Victory Day parade
It's the day before the big Victory Day parade in Moscow, honoring the 65th anniversary of victory in World War II. For the first time, the parade will include representatives from allied militaries, including the U.S., Britain and France but also several from our area of the world, including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan. (Not, you'll notice, Georgia or Uzbekistan.)
Turkmenistan is especially proud of its contingent, whose commander will be on a white Akhal-Teke stallion, named Arab. But this is not just any horse, but a direct descendant of the horse Marshall of the Soviet Union Georgy Zhukov rode in the 1945 parade:
The 11-year-old horse from the stables of the President of Turkmenistan, a model horse-breeding farm with an elite core of thoroughbred Akhal-Teke horses, was transported to Moscow in late April. Since then, Gyrat has been kept in the equestrian club CSKA under the supervision of stablemen and veterinarians. He is transported in a special trailer to rehearsals in the heart of Moscow.
The first time the stallion set his foot on the Kremlin's pavement was May 2, during the first night rehearsal of the parade, and marched several times in the direction from the Historical Museum to Vasilyevsky Slope as part of the foreign military contingent. As an experienced participant of military parades in his homeland, Gyrat got scared neither of the composite orchestra music, nor of the polyphony of three-time "Hurrah", nor of the crash of tens of thousands of soldiers' boots.
In the course of rehearsals the parade organizers did not have a single criticism for the coherent march of the armed forces of Turkmenistan who will bring up the rear of foreign soldiers, as if opening the so-called historical part of the parade.
When we first wrote about the recent purge of the Abkhaz military, the initial analysis was that it was a Kremlin-originated move, designed to gut the Abkhaz military in preparation for the full Russian takeover there. But now a Georgian newspaper (in Georgian) has suggested that the situation may be in fact the opposite, noting that Defense Minister Merab Kishmaria, who remained in power, was an Abkhaz nationalist and opposed excessive Russian military presence in Abkhazia. Via BBC Monitoring:
According to our information, the grandiose purge of personnel was caused by disagreements between the "chief of the general staff", Anatoliy Zaytsev, and Merab Kishmaria. Zaytsev and the others who were dismissed were seen as Russian "informers" and it was their dismissal that was decided by Kishmaria, who, it appears, has been supported by Bagapsh.
Kishmaria's stubborn personality is well known. His stubbornness and direct nature have been the cause of confrontation and dissatisfaction on more than one occasion. It emerges that Kishmaria does not really like the presence of Russian military bases in Abkhazia. "No Russian soldier will guard my mother's grave better than me and my soldiers" [quotation given in Russian]. This was said by the minister who was angered by the activities of Russian soldiers.
Anyone well acquainted with the Abkhazian defense establishment care to chime in with their take?
Plenty of food for thought here, from the Washington Post's Spy Talk blog, via Intelligence Online:
[A] top Chinese general recently made an offer to Afghan President Hamid [Karzai] to train his army and security services “after NATO’s withdrawal.”
General Ma Xiaotian, deputy head of the Chinese Peoples Liberation Army, “recently met Karzai to convince him that China would help him to form his new army and security services after NATO’s withdrawal...”
The obvious conclusion to draw -- if the report is true -- is that China is thinking longer-term than the U.S., and is circling, like a vulture, waiting for the western effort in Afghanistan to die so that it can swoop in. Usually this is thought to be an economic strategy, as in the huge deal the Chinese signed for the copper mine in Afghanistan. That China might be trying to expand its military influence, as well, will set off all sorts of alarm bells. But one analyst thinks that China may actually be trying to learn as much as teach:
John Lee, author of Will China Fail?, told me he's spoken to senior officers of the People's Liberation Army and People's Armed Police about the effort.
"Behind closed doors, both the PLA and PAP are worried about what they perceive to be their lack of ‘field experience’ in combating serious, coordinated insurgencies – they feel that their procedures, operational effectiveness, logistical capacity, etc., are ‘untested’," said Lee, foreign-policy fellow at the Centre for Independent Studies in Sydney.
Deep in this story about the alleged polygamy of deposed Kyrgyzstan president Kurmanbek Bakiyev, is an intriguing detail:
Bakiev was doing his best to prove the image of family man. He gladly talked about two sons – Marat (the former deputy head of National Security Service) and Maxim (the manager of financial sector of national economy) – wife Tatiana whom he met during studies in Kuibishev (Samara). Allegedly, the elder son was involved in special anti-terrorist operation in Batken while the younger one was the financial guru.
You mean the same anti-terrorist center that the U.S. was funding? I asked Kyrgyzstan analyst Erica Marat, and she said yes, he was involved in the development of that center, though she wasn't aware of anything published linking him to the center. This would seem to take on a bit of a sinister cast given the ongoing investigations into alleged Pentagon corruption involving the Bakiyev family and fuel contracts at Manas Air Base. Was the Batken center wrapped up in this?
Marat says that the Batken center was genuinely desired by the previous Kyrgyzstan government, especially defense minister Baktybek Kalyev, as a bulwark against Uzbekistan aggression in southern Kyrgyzstan. And she notes that the cost of the center -- $5.5 million -- isn't so high. Still, I would hope that the congressional investigators looking into the fuel contracts take a look into the Batken center that, as well.
376th Air Expeditionary Wing Command Chief Master Sgt. Jim Dowell helps a Kyrgyz soldier unload flour from a Transit Center at Manas truck in TokMok, Kyrgyzstan, April 29, 2010. Airmen honored five fallen Kyrgyz men who, among many, were slain during the recent unrest in Kyrgyzstan. The U.S. Airmen donated dry and household goods to assist their surviving family members.
4/30/2010 - Transit Center at Manas Airmen honored five fallen Kyrgyz men in a ceremony in TokMok, Kyrgyzstan, April 29, 2010.
Five brave men, among many, were slain during the recent unrest in Kyrgyzstan. The U.S. Airmen donated dry and household goods to assist their surviving family members.
"We bring small tokens of friendship for the families who are going through so much difficulty right now," said Transit Center director Col. Blaine Holt. ...
"Whether you read the local newspaper or the international press, there are many political discussions about the Transit Center," Colonel Holt said. "But the reason I'm here today is just to tell you that we are in the community and we want to continue to help."
So what is up with several of Abkhazia's top military brass retiring all at once? According to the official news agency Apsnypress, via BBC Monitoring:
According to the rules of military service, deputy Abkhaz defence ministers, Col Gen Anatoliy Zaytsev, Maj Gen Zakan Nanba, Maj Gen [and deputy defence minister] Garri Kupalba, Maj Gen Slava Ankvab, and Maj Gen Aleksandr Melnik, have been transferred to the reserve due to their age. In addition, colonels Dmitriy Sokolov (due to health condition), Aleksandr Antipov, Anatoliy Gorbunov, Zaur Adleiba, Ruslan Chokua, and Nodar Kakubava were also transferred to the reserve.
On Monday, 26 April, the supreme commander of the armed forces of Abkhazia, president Sergey Bagapsh, personally visited the main defence body of the country and thanked servicemen transferred to the reserve "for flawless service in the Abkhaz army".
Obviously this mass retirement is suspicious, and the Georgian "Expert Club" sees a sinister Russian hand:
The Russian Federation has enough reasons for this step. Firstly, Abkhazian militants are entering into armed conflict with Russian soldiers more and more frequently. And Against the backdrop of growing dissatisfaction in Abkhazia with lawlessness of Russians, with cases of lawlessness of the occupation troops, redistribution of spheres of influence and different kinds of criminal business, such incidents have all chances to spontaneously develop into large-scale confrontation. And this would be the collapse of the entire political model that the Kremlin has been constructing around Abkhazia. And secondly, the armed forces of Russia have already taken over functions of the Abkhazian "army". So why spend resources on poorly controlled groups that have their own interests that differ from those of Russia!?
