The state daily Neitral'nyi Turkmenistan ran an interview with parliamentary officials December 2 that purports to illustrate how elections will be free in Turkmenistan.
The only problem is that the enabling legislation to guarantee a plurality of political parties has never been passed, and every aspect of the nomination process will be at the discretion of local officials.
Last time "free" elections were held in 2007 and Gurbanguly Berdymukhahmedov handily prevailed, there were some opponents permitted to spoke at carefully-choreographed regional meetings on approved topics that gave the public a bit of a chance to vent about mismanaged agriculture or poor education. So we can expect some of that next February in the next presidential elections, but it does not appear at this time as if the all-powerful Turkmen leader will legalize any serious alternative parties, much less allow any real rival to appear on the scene.
Gurbangul Bayramov, chairman of the Mejlis (parliamentary) Committee on Work with Local Representative Government Bodies and Self-Management was interviewed by Neitral'nyi Turkmenistan and asked about participation in the elections by civic groups.
Bayramov cited the constitutional guarantee for citizens to "create political parties" (note the plural) and other civic associations and the obligation for them to "conduct their activity under the law". So in theory, people could just form a group and show up -- except there is no law to govern them. The law on civic associations permits citizens to "create associations on the basis of common interests to achieve common goals." But they must register at the Ministry of Justice -- and there's the hitch -- officials will only legalize those organizations that are loyal to the government.
The International Partnership for Human Rights, a coalition of European and Central Asian human rights groups, has released a new report this month, Central Asia: Censorship and Control of the Internet and Other New Media.
President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov has been praised by Western leaders for increasing Internet access, but it turns out that with the average monthly salary only $285 in Turkmenistan, the $215 monthly Internet fee or even the dollar-an-hour Internet cafe are beyond most people's budgets. In any event, the Internet is heavily regulated, and there is only one state-run provider, Turkmentelecom, which blocks independents sites like gundogar.org and chrono-tm.org as well as Facebook, Twitter, and Live Journal.
Chinese Huawei Technologies and Finnish-German Nokia Siemens Networks have signed contracts with the country’s Ministry of Communications to upgrade the state-owned mobile network and introduce new services. Yet concerns have been expressed that these companies may agree to assist the Turkmen government in monitoring cell phone and internet use in exchange for lucrative deals, says the study.
Although the report is quite bleak describing heavy police control of the Internet and the cancellation of cell phone service for 2.4 million people when the contract of Russia's mobile company MTS was not extended, there are some glimmers of hope. Last July, some citizen journalists came forward to try to cover the explosion in Abadan when the authorities tried to cover it up. While a stringer for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty was jailed for his coverage of Abadan, after a worldwide outcry he was released.
Mobile service has continued to deteriorate, says the report, and recent travelers to Ashgabat confirm difficulties in getting cell phone coverage.
As Turkmenistan continues to pursue its own pipeline projects -- primarily with Beijing, but also promoting the Turkmen-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline and indicating some support for the Trans-Caspian Pipeline -- Russia has become increasingly belligerent. Maybe this is just to gain a bargaining position, as there are indications that Turkmenistan's new gas deal with China will help delay the Trans-Caspian Pipeline between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, designed to circumvent Russia.
But could the Kremlin really start a war over the monopolist Gazprom losing one third of its business due to the TCP, if Turkmenistan really has enough gas -- and foreign investments -- to supply all comers?
The Bug Pit has asked the question of whether Russia would start a war, quoting various Russian analysts including Mikhail Aleksandrov of the Institute of CIS Countries: "Remembering what NATO did in Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, Russia has no barriers, moral or legal ones, for the use of force in the Caspian Sea."
The theory is that Russia would need a pretext to start military action -- but past experience shows that Moscow can exploit accidents (or -- as some in Ashgabat darkly hint -- cause them) such as the explosion in April 2009 on a Turkmen pipeline which triggered (or displayed?) deteriorating relations between Russia and Turkmenistan. The two countries are still arguing over whether it was Gazprom's fault for shutting off gas too quickly when it sharply reduced purchases after failing to get a lower price, or Turkmenistan's fault for having aging infrastructure.
Past experience has also shown that Russia can force other countries to allow themselves to be provoked -- as it did with Georgia. Could this happen with Turkmenistan?
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China
President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, November 23, 2011, China.
While the European Union was left still fretting over how much Turkmenistan was committed to the Trans-Caspian Pipeline, and while Russia was left fuming that Turkmenistan shouldn't be building a pipeline without its consent (and supposedly didn't have enough gas to fill it anyway), President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov waltzed off to Beijing last week and picked up an order for an additional 25 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas.
The generous purchase from the Chinese National Petroleum Company brings to 65 bcm the amount to be pumped annually from Turkmenistan to China with soft loans of more than $8 billion -- double the volume of gas originally announced when construction began on the pipeline in 2009.
Turkmenistan has had diplomatic relations for 20 years with China. "The Turkmen and Chinese peoples are united by the respect for rich and unique culture and traditions of their countries," said the official Turkmen government website -- in other words, Berdymukhamedov never has to hear about human rights from Chinese leaders. For its part, Ashgabat supports China's "one-state policy" and opposes Taiwan independence in any form.
The Turkmen leader met with Chinese President Hu Jintao and other leaders on November 23 to discuss expansion of trade relations. Hu proposed a five-point plan including "strengthening political trust with high-level exchanges" between the two countries' governments, legislatures and political parties (Turkmenistan has only one; China has the dominating Communist Party but eight other parties under its direction). The Chinese president also suggested the two countries should consult "on major issues of mutual concern"; increase cooperation in non-resource sectors such as transportation and telecommunications; and expand people-to-people cultural exchanges.
OSCE Secretary General Lamberto Zannier, at Oil and Gas Turkmenistan conference, Ashgabat, November 2011.
Remember how President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov surprised everyone last summer by seeming to invite the opposition to take part in next year's presidential elections? His alleged invitation came right in the middle of the Turkmen leadership's struggle to cope with the aftermath of the explosion of a munitions depot in Abadan. People protested the lack of news from the government and the apparently high casualties that officials seemed determined to cover up.
The sudden announcement that exiled opposition leaders might be welcome in the heavily-controlled elections seemed at the time as a kind of distraction from the government's inability or unwillingness to respond to the needs of civil society in the post-explosion crisis. It was as if Berdymukhamedov sensed that he could suffer a huge blow to his prestige from the anger erupting over the government's mishandling of the disaster, and offered a sop to far-away political dissidents whom he never really intended to accommodate. In August, when the elections were announced, nothing was said about any permission for exiles to return.
Well, now as the February 2012 elections draw closer, it turns out that the old adage applies; "if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is."
There’s nothing that gets President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov more crazy than stray dogs and cats – whenever he spots them around the capital, especially if they run across his motorcade, he orders subordinates to have them destroyed.
Maybe he’s obsessed with cleanliness in his sparkling white-marbled city; maybe he’s spooked at the recollection of the coup attempt nine years ago this month on the motorcade of his predecessor, Saparmurat Niyazov.
As we know from WikiLeaks, in what has got to be the most bizarre cable from Ashgabat, the Turkmen leader has even fired military officials when a cat crossed his path.
The frequent presidential orders to exterminate dogs and cats has led many people to lose their pets, and they're getting fed up.
Earlier this month, a man was walking his dog late at night near the Puppet Theater. Suddenly, police surrounded him, forced his arms behind his back and hauled him off to the police station, along with his dog.
It turned out that the president’s motorcade had just happened to be speeding by at that moment. The man, whose name was not provided, was held for several hours in the police station. Police told him that they had received orders: either his dog would have to be shot, or he would have to serve 15 days in jail.
So to save his pet, the man decided to opt for the jail time. He was allowed one phone call , and asked his relatives to come and pick up the dog.
It was never going to win any awards for service, but the Hotel Turkmenistan in the center of Ashgabat was at least a small reminder of a time and style that predated the soulless marble-heavy aesthetic that has now taken over the capital.
Earlier this week, without any apparent warning, the hotel and the old mayor's office next door were ripped down. With stunning swiftness, the demolition site has been cordoned off with hoardings. What these destroyed buildings are making way for is not clear. This area of the city has undergone a radical transformation in recent years, although hardly for the more interesting. The Arch of Neutrality topped by the infamous revolving golden statue of the late President Saparmurat Niyazov -- aka Turkmenbashi -- stood less than a minute's walk from the hotel.
Now the space is occupied by a blink-and-miss-it fountain.
Nearby, on the same broad esplanade that served as a parade ground on Victory Day, the golden-domed former presidential palace still stands. Where that once represented the garish height of Turkmenbashi vulgarity, it has now been overtaken by the $250 million presidential complex unveiled earlier this year just a few hundred yards away.
It had always been possible in Niyazov's day to walk past the old presidential palace. Now, surly young conscripts carefully patrol the new complex to make sure impudent passersby do not even walk anywhere near the impeccable road running along its facade.
Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov and German Foreign Minister Guido Westervelle, Ashgabat, November 2011
German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle travelled to Ashgabat last week to attend the Oil and Gas Turkmenistan conference in a major show of support for cooperation with Turkmenistan from a leading economic power in the European Union.
Germany has long been a visible partner of Turkmenistan in energy, science and education projects. RWE, Germany's gas giant, is leader of the Nabucco consortium and has been drilling offshore in the Caspian Sea for years. German doctors stood at the elbow of President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, trained as a dentist, when he performed surgery on a patient at a German-supported medical clinic in Ashgabat.
Touring around lavish marble palaces and parks studded with fountains, Foreign Minister Westerwelle remarked, "“Ashgabat is a wonderful, magnificent and very neat city that certainly impresses the Germans. It appears that we share an approach to life," the State News Agency of Turkmenistan (TDH) reported him as saying.
Germany's largest daily Suddeutsche Zeitungwas less impressed, calling Westerwelle's visit a "trip to another galaxy," and describing the ostentatious marble architecture in Ashgabat as "a gleaming mixture of Stalin and kitsch," remarking that President Berdymukhamedov had "turned gas into reinforced concrete."
Interestingly, unlike US leaders, who have tended to avoid public mention of human rights problems or leave them to lower-level officials, the German foreign minister spoke forthrightly after his meeting with Berdymukhamedov, "“I have also addressed the necessity of plurality in civil society, the necessity of protecting human and civil rights during this visit." The state media did not cover his remarks.
That seems unlikely, but it's a possibility that some Russian analysts have been discussing lately, as discussions between Turkmenistan and its would-be European partners over the pipeline have advanced.
For example, in an article in Nezavisimaya Gazeta and translated in Itar-Tass:
The building of TCP will mean de-facto the recognition of the division of the Caspian Sea into sectors. This is absolutely unacceptable for Russia, and it will have to take action, similar to the operation for the compelling of Georgia to peace. “This time it will have to compel Ashkhabad and Baku to observe international law, probably, with the help of air strikes, if they do not understand any other language. Remembering what NATO did in Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, Russia has no barriers, moral or legal ones, for the use of force in the Caspian Sea,” [Mikheil] Alexandrov [of the Institute of CIS Countries] believes.
And News.Az interviewed Konstantin Simonov, director general of the Russian National Energy Security Fund:
Many people call me a hawk, but I do not deny that this is a matter of prestige of the state – whether Russia is ready to tolerate such an outright move of disrespect. If Russia’s allows to treat itself in a way Tajikistan did a couple of days ago trying the crew of the Russian aircraft, the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline will become possible.
But what we see today is that Turkmenistan, despite the support from Washington and Brussels, is not ready to risk yet. I am very doubtful that Russia will tolerate it. Moreover, the reaction can be very hard up to some sort of military conflict in the Caspian Sea.
Is Turkmenistan ready for this? I have great doubts in this regard.
An interesting side drama at the annual Oil and Gas Turkmenistan conference was Turkmenistan's very cautious step toward rapprochement with Russia, following months of strained relations, mutual recriminations, escalating militarization in the Caspian, and outright conflict over the Trans-Caspian Pipeline (TCP).
On November 16 at the conference, Bayramgeldy Nedirov, Turkmenistan's minister of oil and gas industry and mineral resources, met with Yury Sentyurin, Russia's deputy ministery of energy, the opposition website gundogar.org reported, citing the Russian ministry's website.
Nedirov said that Turkmenistan was interested in "the active involvement of Russian companies in investment and also innovation projects in Turkmenistan." He then touched upon the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-Indian (TAPI) pipeline, noting that by the end of this year, the project would be ready for "implementation in the framework of a consortium with the participation of interested companies." That was quite a bit warmer than the frosty response last year, when Russian Deputy Vice Premier Igor Sechin seemed to jump the gun assuming Gazprom would be involved, and then got slammed by irate Turkmen Foreign Ministry officials who felt the Russians were being too presumptuous.
