The United States' reinvigorated interest in relations with Eurasian countries raises prospects for a dormant regional security alliance known as GUUAM. The US-led anti-terrorism campaign provides new impetus for the organization to act as a stabilizing force and vehicle for economic growth in the region.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent visit to Tajikistan is indicative of Moscow's concern about a possible loss of influence in Central Asia and Afghanistan. Amid signs of growing US-Russian competition for sway over the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance, Putin is taking steps to solidify Russian ties with long-time allies in the region.
During an October 23 meeting, both Georgian Parliament chairman Zurab Zhvania and his Azerbaijani counterpart, Murtuz Alasgarov, harshly criticized Russian policy in the South Caucasus. Both men said Russia was playing an unconstructive role in attempts to promote regional stability.
The fallout from the September 11 terrorist attacks is spreading to the Caucasus. After years of uneasy peace, Georgia and Abkhazian separatists are mobilizing to resume their bitter conflict. Georgian officials are accusing Russia of fomenting unrest, and President Eduard Shevardnadze is considering pulling Georgia out of the Commonwealth of Independent States.
Some analysts believe that cooperation between the United States and Russia in the fight against terrorism could open a new chapter in relations, particularly in Central Asia. There seem to be more questions about whether the same spirit will extend to the Caspian and Caucasus areas.
Uzbek President Islam Karimov is striving to keep a tight rein on events that threaten to stampede out of control. After years of repressing freedom of expression, Karimov is now taking tentative steps to open up Uzbekistan's tightly controlled media. But gaining popular trust is proving a difficult challenge for the government.
From a broad perspective, it is clear that the U.S. campaign against terrorism has altered the traditional alignment of U.S. policy in the former Soviet Union in general, and in the Transcaucasus as well. This altered alignment is driven by the new U.S. cooperative relationship with Russia and the utilization of several key Central Asian states in the first stage of the campaign.
Russia's apparent determination to crush Chechen separatists is posing a threat to Georgia's sovereignty. A variety of Russian officials have suggested that Moscow should expand its military operations into Georgia's Pankisi Gorge, which Chechens, according to Kremlin claims, use as a base of operations. Georgian leaders counter that such action is unwarranted.
Two events precipitated upheaval in Georgia's political establishment in recent weeks. The first occurred on September 17, when President Eduard Shevardnadze announced his resignation as leader of Georgia's ruling Citizens' Union of Georgia movement (CUG).
In the struggle to contain international terrorism, Russian leaders have sought to link Afghanistan with Chechnya. Although Moscow portrays the war in Chechnya as a counter-terrorist operation, this image does not accurately reflect the reality on the ground.
