In the Commonwealth of Independent States, experience has shown that a signing ceremony alone does not ensure future success for a trade initiative. Such is the case with two competing economic blocs comprising former Soviet states. One, a four-year-old entity called GUUAM, incorporating Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova, is virtually moribund.
A Russian diplomatic source reports that Moscow's foreign policy establishment has misgivings about the newly minted Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). In particular, Uzbekistan's inclusion in the organization is viewed by many Russian policy makers with ambivalence.
A corruption scandal that has engulfed top Turkish officials, including Deputy Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz, is threatening a Russian-Turkish pipeline project, known as Blue Stream.
Based on an agreement signed in Bishkek in October 2000, a joint rapid reaction force consisting of four battalions from Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan would be used to respond to regional crises across Central Asia and to fortify porous border areas against terrorist attacks and incursions.
Fury over the Istanbul hostage drama threatens to sap Turkish sympathy for Chechens. "Biting the Hand That Feeds It" screamed a headline in the daily Sabah, in response to a raid staged by a group of pro-Chechen gunmen on the five-star Swissotel on April 22.
GUUAM, the geopolitical bloc that groups Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova, is reeling, and appears close to expiring. Participating nations appear to lack the political will to give the project a definitive shape. A GUUAM Parliamentary Conference, originally scheduled for January 2001 in Baku, has yet to convene.
The relationship between Moscow and Tehran is not that smooth, and can by no means be defined as a strategic partnership. Even to call Russia and Iran "strategic neighbors," as was done at the mid-March summit meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian leader Mohammad Khatami, stretches the limits of credibility.
Under President Vladimir Putin, Russia's foreign policy establishment is rethinking the concept of empire. In the case of Moscow's approach towards Central Asia, ideas about territorial domination no longer play a significant role in the formulation of strategy, according to a source with access to Russia's policy-making mechanisms.
EurasiaNet: Perhaps the best place to start is to review the status of the initial six months of engineering work currently under way for the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline.
Azerbajani President Heidar Aliyev on March 12 began a state visit to Turkey. The same day, Iranian President Mohammad Khatami was wrapping up a landmark summit meeting in Moscow with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. The travels of these two key Caspian region leaders indicate that the competition over the region's vast oil and gas resources is kicking into high gear.
