The base of support for Islamic radicals waging an insurgent campaign to topple President Islam Karimov's government is broader than previously assumed. The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan appeals not only to the impoverished peasants of the Ferghana Vallley, but also to a significant number of Uzbekistan's shrinking middle class.
Most states in Central Eurasia qualify as "high-capture" states. They provide particular advantages to influential firms that are bound by a web of interactions. (Companies bribe the state and in exchange receive a wide range of indirect subsidies). Meanwhile, the institutions essential to improving governance suffer from a lack of funds.
Azerbaijan has through the last decade been mainly associated with two things: oil and unresolved, historical ethnic conflicts. Russia on the one side and the United States and Turkey on the other are competing for a stake in the exploitation and transport of the rich oil and gas reserves in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.
From his seat in the Kremlin, President Vladimir Putin not only is in charge of shaping Russia's destiny, but he also exerts considerable influence over the development of all newly independent states, especially those in the Caucasus and Central Asia.
The romantic era of Russian foreign policy is now officially over. Kremlin policy makers have embraced a pragmatic foreign policy agenda that could pose significant challenges to the nation-building aspirations of states in Central Asia and the Caucasus.
Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze is making a state visit to Britain, seeking economic and political backing for his domestic reform efforts.
Shevardnadze departed for Britain on July 17. During his London visit he was scheduled to meet with top British leaders, including Queen Elizabeth II and Prime Minister Tony Blair, as well as leading members of the business community.
NATO Secretary General George Robertson's working visit to Kazakhstan on July 4 may have reassured Kazakhstan of NATO's support. But now more than ever, Kazakhstan should resist the urge to embrace NATO and the Secretary General's pledges of partnership "in every possible way." It should instead choose carefully between primary alliances with NATO or with Russia.
As Taliban forces are reportedly amassing on Afghanistan's northern borders and the anniversary of the violence in Osh, Kyrgyzstan, approaches, rumors about the opening of a long-awaited Russian military base in northern Tajikistan are resurfacing.
The latest round of negotiations between the Taliban and supporters of Burhanuddin Rabbani ended in deadlock on May 9 in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The two sides agreed to continue talks in June, but many observers are skeptical about the potential for a negotiated peace in Afghanistan.
