Yushchenko supporters have occupied Kyiv's main avenue, Kreshchatik, since the November 21 presidential run-off, resisting what they see as Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich's attempt to steal the election.
Relative calm has returned to Abkhazia following a confrontation linked to the Georgian breakaway region's disputed "presidential" election. Even though large-scale violence has been averted for now, recent developments mark a substantial blow to Moscow's Caucasus policy.
Russia's decision to close border-crossing points with Georgia and Azerbaijan, purportedly to frustrate movements by Chechen militants, has produced widespread discontent, even anger in Armenia Moscow's long-time strategic ally in the Caucasus. Some in Yerevan suggest the move may prompt a reassessment of Armenia's special relationship with Russia.
Two days after the Beslan tragedy ended in a fiery blood bath, a group of Western experts and journalists, including this author, met with Vladimir Putin for tea in his state residence in Novo-Ogarevo. It was a grim affair.
The Beslan hostage tragedy has the potential to spark upheaval across the Caucasus, political analysts in Moscow are saying. Some influential commentators warn the Kremlin must alter its security approach toward the region. However, President Vladimir Putin appears intent on tightening Russia's security apparatus, rather than reexamining existing policies.
The hostage tragedy in North Ossetia, along with a spate of terrorist episodes in Moscow, is prompting scrutiny of the Russian government's policies in the North Caucasus, specifically the renegade province of Chechnya. Moscow's heavy-handed actions, featuring a reliance on force, are widening the gap between the local population and the Kremlin-supported governing apparatus in the region.
Policy-makers in Moscow are engaged in a strenuous debate on the limits of Russian power in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Some analysts believe that neither the United States nor Russia will be able to establish itself as the dominant geopolitical player in the two regions.
No one can be surprised by the outbreak of fighting in Dagestan and Kyrgyzstan.
Life in both regions is grim and becoming grimmer. Politicization and religious revival have emerged. From that has come official ham-handedness, and from that militancy.
As the Kremlin prepares for Chechnya's August 29 presidential elections, some analysts contend that it is facing the prospect of losing control over the North Caucasus. Even while taking steps to ensure the election of a leader loyal to Moscow, Russia's policy makers have proven unable to cope with a recent violence spree by militants in the neighboring republic of Ingushetia.
Though overshadowed by discussions about the reconstruction of Iraq and Afghanistan, the Caucasus and Central Asia figured greatly at the recently concluded North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit in Istanbul. The 26 NATO member states expressed a desire to devote "special focus" to developing ties with countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia.
