As the Russia-Ukraine crisis unfolds, the Armenian government is casting its diplomatic lot with the Kremlin. Some in Yerevan worry the government is committing a geopolitical blunder by expressing a clear preference for Russia over the West.
Russia’s escalating confrontation with the West resulting from its annexation of Crimea has thrown long-running international efforts to end the conflict over Nagorno Karabakh into uncertainty. Analysts in Yerevan believe that the standoff bodes ill for continued joint US-Russian mediation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace talks, which is seen as critical for achieving a compromise settlement.
Political fighting is escalating as Armenia’s presidential election approaches. A long-time, former Armenian foreign minister, Vartan Oskanian, is facing controversial criminal charges in what is widely regarded as an effort by President Serzh Sargsyan to neutralize Robert Kocharian, his predecessor and potentially most dangerous rival.
Armenia is deepening what it regards as a strategic relationship with neighboring Iran despite mounting international concern over the Iranian nuclear program and widespread speculation about potential US military action against Tehran.