As reported in this previous post, Greek Cyprus's efforts to explore for gas off the divided island's shores has led to a serious ramping up of tension in the Eastern Mediterranean, with Turkey retaliating by signing exploration deals of its own with the Turkish Cypriots and even hinting at the possibility of military action regarding the issue.
While the rhetoric has been lowered in recent weeks, new developments could bring the resource-related tension in the region back up to the surface. From an Associated Press report published yesterday:
A top official with United States firm Noble Energy said on Tuesday that a field it is conducting undersea exploratory drilling in off the coast of Cyprus may yield between 3 to 9 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
Noble Senior Vice President Susan Cunningham says there is a 60 percent chance it will successfully reach the deposit.
Cunningham told an analyst conference at Noble’s Houston headquarters — broadcast live through the company’s Website — that firm results from the ‘Cyprus A prospect’ would impact other possible exploratory drilling in the area.
It is the first time Noble has given an estimate on the size of the deposit which lies inside the Mediterranean island’s exclusive economic zone about 115 miles (185 kilometers) off its south coast.
By comparison, Noble said an Israeli field discovered nearby in 2010 had an estimated 16 trillion cubic feet of gas — the world’s largest offshore gas discovery that year.
The fall of the Soviet Union presented what should have been a golden opportunity for Turkey to develop a sphere of influence in the Turkic republics of Central Asia. For various reasons, though, things didn't quite work out that way. In many ways, Ankara now finds itself having better relations and more influence in the Middle East -- a region whose countries it traditionally kept at an arm's length -- than in Central Asia.
What went wrong? Nadir Devlet, a professor in the International Relations department of Istanbul Commerce University, tries to answer that question in a new paper for the German Marshall Fund that takes a look at the last 20 years of Turkey-Central Asia relations and that suggests that a new outreach effort from Ankara may be on the horizon. From his paper:
Turkey’s efforts to penetrate the Turkic regions of the former Soviet Union with its own influence have had a number of successes and failures. President Gül has been a particular advocate for a more assertive Turkish approach in this regard. Yet to date, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turk- menistan are not important business partners for Turkey, despite their geographic proximity, energy riches, and other resources. Turkey’s relations with Turkmenistan are in fact deteriorating, and its relations with Uzbekistan — which with a population of nearly 30 million is Central Asia’s most important actor — are at their lowest level in many years. Turkish-Turkic integration clearly has a long way to go. Yet we should not be surprised to see Ankara assigning height- ened importance to the larger Turkic world in its emerging foreign policy as Turkey gives up its former commitment to the status quo for a more visible strategic activism.
Today's edition of the Turkish daily Sabah has a very provocative scoop. According to the paper, an Armenian group in the United States is working to revive the Armenian Secret Army for the Liberation of Armenia (ASALA), a terrorist organization that was active in the 1970's and 80's and which was responsible for several fatal attacks on Turkish diplomats during that period.
ASALA has been dormant since the early 1990's, but the Sabah article claims to have exclusive information that shows that a neo-ASALA is being created in rural California by an organization called the American Armenian Militia. According to the Sabah, the group has some 1,000 members that it is training to be assassins and commandos. The article also hints that this "neo-ASALA" may be supported by Israel, in order to punish Turkey for their recent falling out, and that Turkish Prime Minister will be raising the topic of the group's activities during his upcoming trip to the United Nations' General Assembly. All sensational stuff, to be sure. But is it true?
To find out a bit more, I did something the author of the Sabah article didn't do, which is call the American Armenian Militia (AAM) for comment. By dialing a toll-free phone number given on the "Contact Us" page of the group's website, I was able to reach the group's founder, a 43-year-old electronics engineer in southern California who, for fear of any more negative publicity, said he only wants to be referred to as John S.
The Militia, he said, was founded in 2007 and currently has about 20 members, ranging in age from 17 (the youngest age allowed) to retirement age.
With its relations in Israel in freefall, following the release of a United Nations report about last year's Gaza flotilla, Turkey has increasingly been turning up the heat on its former ally. In particular, Ankara has promised that it will be increasing its naval patrols in the Eastern Mediterranean to show Israel its displeasure with the ongoing naval blockade of Gaza. But could these beefed up patrols (if they materialize) actually be aimed at flexing some muscle towards Cyprus? From Reuters:
Some Turkish and Israeli commentators have suggested Turkey might use the feud with Israel to build up naval patrols in seas between the Jewish state and the divided island of Cyprus.
Turkey has bitterly complained about recent Cypriot-Israeli energy deals. The presence of Turkish ships would have a menacing effect and could be seen as a provocation by neighboring Greece, also a NATO member.
Noble Energy, a U.S. firm, is due to start exploratory drilling for natural gas off Cyprus in October despite warnings from Turkey against such concessions.
Turkey and Cyprus have been at odds for decades over the ethnically split island, whose internationally recognized Greek Cypriot government is an EU member. Turkish Cypriots live in a breakaway state in northern Cyprus recognized only by Turkey.
Asked about exploratory drilling for natural gas by Greek Cypriots, Egemen Bagis, Turkey's European Union minister, told Turkish media last week: "It is for this (reason) that countries have warships. It is for this (reason) that we have equipment and we train our navies."
It may not be as famous as the Elgin marbles, which were taken from Greece by an Ottoman-era British diplomat, but a marble head sitting in storage in a London museum could create friction between England and Turkey. From the Independent:
Turkey is demanding the return of an ancient marble head, now languishing in the stores of a London museum, which was taken from Anatolia more than a century ago.
The Turkish culture ministry has asked the Victoria and Albert Museum to return a 1,700-year-old life-sized marble carving of a child's head, described as bearing a likeness to Eros, the Greek god of love.
Tolga Tuyluoglu, the director of Turkey's culture and tourism office in London, said: "The Turkish ministry of culture thinks this item belongs to Turkey. We believe if an item has been removed from a country then it should be returned to the original place."
In 1882, the archaeologist Sir Charles Wilson, then Britain's consul-general in Anatolia, removed the head from the Sidamara Sarcophagus, a huge tomb dating from the third century, which he had excavated. The sarcophagus, which now sits in Istanbul's Museum of Archaeology, is one of the finest and most widely known of its type and period.
Sir Charles, who served in the Royal Engineers, conducted archaeological surveys in Palestine and Lebanon before moving to Anatolia, which corresponds to most of present-day Turkey, in 1879. He removed the head from the Sidamara Sarcophagus, which he then re-covered in the hope of acquiring the whole object. The head is that of a child with curly hair looking over his shoulder. Sir Charles's family later donated the head to the V&A, where it is held in the museum's stores.
"It's a complicated issue," said Mr Tuyluoglu. "There are many agreements between the two countries. We are discussing the matter."
Relations between former allies Turkey and Israel have been on the skids since last year, when Israeli commandos killed nine Turks in an attempt to take over a ship that was part of an aid convoy heading to Gaza. Turkey demanded Israel apologize and pay compensation for the deaths (and later added a third condition, that Israel lift is blockade of the Gaza Strip), but -- despite negotiations and efforts by Washington to bridge the divide -- Jerusalem refused to meet Turkey's demands.
After the flotilla incident, both countries joined a United Nations panel created to take a look at the event and perhaps assign some responsibility for what transpired. After months and months of delays, the report (here) was leaked yesterday to the New York Times. While strongly criticizing the conduct of Israel's military in both taking the ship over and in how it treated the passengers afterwards, the report deems Israel's naval blockade of Gaza and the interception of the ships heading there legal. It also has some harsh words about the motives of the flotilla's organizers, saying the convoy was more of a publicity stunt than a humanitarian effort.
The release of the report, as expected by many, has resulted in a futher -- and quite severe -- downgrading in Turkey's relations with Israel. From Hurriyet:
Turkey expelled Israel's ambassador and senior Israeli diplomats and suspended military agreements on Friday, the day after it emerged a U.N. report said Israel had used unreasonable force in a raid on a Gaza-bound ship that killed nine Turks, Reuters reported.
Greece has long been concerned about the flow of irregular migrants who cross its borders from Turkey, but a Greek plan to build a water-filled ditch along the two countries' shared border is causing concern in Ankara that the plan is not just about stopping migrants from crossing the frontier. From a very interesting article in The National:
"We are following the recent developments in Greece about digging a ditch at the Turkish border with concern," Egemen Bagis, Turkey's minister for EU affairs, said earlier this month. "I hope our Greek friends are not after a foreign crisis to divert the attention from their domestic crisis," Mr Bagis added in reference to the financial turmoil in Greece, which is close to bankruptcy and has to rely on help from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.
It was "surprising to see Greece spending funds in such a project at a time when it is muddling through a financial crisis", Mr Bagis said. "For a more effective solution, Greece should have chosen to increase its cooperation with Turkey against irregular migration rather than coming up with palliative solutions."
Greece is digging a 120-kilometre trench along its north-eastern border river Evros, or Meric in Turkish, to hold back recurring river floods but also to stem illegal immigration, the Athens daily Ta Nea reported. The ditch, which is being built by the military, is reported to be seven metres deep and 30 metres wide. About 14.5km had been dug as of early August. The online edition of the Greek newspaper Ekathimerini reported the trench was to be filled with water, adding that the project was treated as a "military operation".
In the wake of Israel's recent find of massive amount of offshore natural gas in its little patch of eastern Mediterranean, Cyprus (the Greek side, that is) is hoping that it too is sitting on top of large energy reserves. The Cypriot government has given the green light to an American energy company to start exploring for gas in the island's waters later this year, but there is one major problem that stands in the way of Cyprus's plans: Turkey. From a report by the energy analysis firm Platt's:
There is still one stumbling block to Cyprus becoming a gas power though--namely its uneasy relations with Turkey. Israel and Cyprus have reached agreement on their maritime borders and each has accepted the other's exclusive economic zone. But Turkey, which occupies the northern part of Cyprus, has said it does not accept the agreement.
The Turkish government claims any agreements concluded by Cyprus are void unless and until the island is reunited and both the Greek and Turkish communities are represented.
Turkey has termed the offshore gas exploration activities "unlawful and in violation of international law" and as the planned date of drilling approaches, Ankara has stepped up its campaign. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu warned that Ankara would "take appropriate measures" if Greek Cypriots went ahead with drilling plans.
The Turkish newspaper Hurriyet reported that the country's embassy in Washington is planning to convey Ankara's reservations regarding Noble's plans to begin drilling to the US government.
And the Turkish foreign ministry warned that agreements and exploration activities in the southern Mediterranean "would negatively affect the settlement of the Cyprus question and lead to new conflicts among the countries in the region."
On the eve of a visit to Azerbaijan, it appears that Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is turning up the heat on Armenia, calling on Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan to apologize for recent comments her reportedly made to a group of students, telling them it is their duty to liberate "western Armenia" (i.e. eastern Turkey). From Today's Zaman:
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev had talks in Baku on Wednesday.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has said in Baku that Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan should apologize for calling on school children to occupy eastern Turkey.
Speaking at a joint news conference with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Erdoğan said Sarksyan's remarks did not befit a statesman and called them a “historical mistake” that should be corrected.
When asked by a student at a literature contest ceremony if Armenians will be able to get back their “western territories” along with Mt. Ararat, Sarksyan said, "This is the task of your generation.”
Armenians attach great historical and cultural importance to Mt. Ararat on the eastern border of modern-day Turkey, around where Armenians are believed to have first adopted Christianity as an official religion in 301 A.D.
Sarksyan said his generation had fulfilled its task by “getting back” Karabakh, a part of what he called “our motherland.” Nagorno-Karabakh is an Azerbaijani territory which is currently under Armenian occupation.
Leaders of both countries have met dozens of times to find a settlement to the decades-long conflict but have failed to secure a peace agreement. Armenia currently occupies 20 percent of Azerbaijan's territories, including seven adjacent provinces populated by ethnic Azerbaijanis.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry also strongly condemned on Tuesday Sarksyan's remarks, calling the statement “very irresponsible behavior.”
In a post from a few days ago, I linked to a column that suggested there might be some new hope for the stalled reconciliation process on the divided island of Cyprus.That hope was based on the understanding that with last month's elections behind it, the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) can now get back to focusing on some of the unresolved political and diplomatic problems that are blocking Turkey's forward path.
Well, only a few days later, its seems like that hope might quickly be vanishing. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is today making a visit to Turkish-controlled Northern Cyprus and what he had to say there offered little comfort to those hoping for a new day on the island. From a Today's Zaman report:
Turkey is no longer prepared to accept the concessions it has agreed to in order to help with the reunification of Cyprus in line with a UN plan back in 2004 and the Turkish side will accept nothing short of recognition of a two-state solution on the island, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has said.
Erdoğan, speaking to a group of Turkish Cypriot journalists ahead of a Tuesday trip to the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC), said 2012 was a final deadline for a settlement on the island. “We will see if this is resolved by 2012 or not. If it is not, we will have to find solutions ourselves,” Erdoğan was quoted as saying by the Anatolia news agency on Tuesday. The news conference took place on Monday.
