A much-anticipated World Bank study is expected to rule later this year on the feasibility of building the world’s tallest hydroelectric dam, Rogun, in Tajikistan. This week, the Bank has given a sneak peak at its findings, and the moderately encouraging remarks are likely to divide archrivals Tajikistan and downstream Uzbekistan further along traditional lines.
Dushanbe says Tajikistan needs the Soviet-designed project to ensure its energy independence. For President Emomali Rakhmon, Rogun is more than an investment in his country’s future: It’s central to Tajikistan’s identity and his legacy.
Downstream on the Amu Darya, Tashkent is aggressively opposed to the project, saying it will hurt Uzbekistan’s agricultural sector and poses an unnecessary risk in a seismically active region. Over the last few years, Tashkent has done just about everything it can to make life hell for Tajikistan and stop the project – closing borders randomly, preventing transit of goods and people to the region’s most isolated country, and cutting off gas supplies during the coldest months. Uzbek President Islam Karimov has even warned of war.
So supportive comments from the World Bank’s regional director, Saroj Kumar Jha, are no doubt welcome in Dushanbe.
“[O]n the key issues of dam and public safety, including analysis of possible earthquakes,” Jha says, “[t]he interim findings from the presentations, reports and feedback from the Panels of Experts are that the dam type under consideration and stability of the slopes appear to be acceptable.”
The public relations tussle over Tajikistan's ambitious Rogun dam project has now shifted to Europe, where politicians are being unwittingly dragged into the war of words with Uzbekistan.
Tashkent's vehement opposition to Rogun is no secret. The Uzbek government argues that construction of the hydropower plant will deprive it of irrigation water for valuable cotton and vegetable crops. It also says that building such a large dam is tempting fate in a seismically active region.
It is one thing saying that kind of thing oneself, but quite another if one can get an international expert or politician to sign up to the opinion.
And so, enter German European Parliament member Elisabeth Jeggle.
As quoted by regional portal CA-News and several Uzbek news outlets (via Uzbekistan's Foreign Ministry), Jeggle took a decidedly anti-Rogun stance while speaking with a group of Uzbek environmentalists in Brussels on November 29.
"Instead of planning large-scale projects, Tajikistan should pay more attention to the upgrading of water and energy infrastructures, so as to avoid loss of water at the expense of neighboring countries, and fully implement alternative environmentally friendly projects without infringing the rights and interests of states in the region," CA-News quotes Jeggle as saying.
A pretty candid slap-down, one might think, but Tajik media is now gleefully reporting that Jeggle has taken exception to how her remarks were reported.
