When news broke a couple of years ago that Russia was selling S-300 air defense systems to Azerbaijan, the immediate assumption was that this had to do with Armenia. The sale suggested a huge shift in Russia's military policy toward the south Caucasus: Russia has a big military base in Armenia and provides Yerevan with weaponry. So why would it be arming the other side? There were all sorts of theories: it was done to intimidate Armenia into signing a long extension of the base agreement with Russia, or that it was pure mercenary motives. Some noted that the range of the S-300s was enough to cover Nagorno Karabakh (over which a war will presumably be fought) but not Gyumri, Armenia, where the Russian base is.
But what if we were all looking in the wrong direction for the threat, to the west rather than to the south? That's what analyst Anar Valiyev today told The Bug Pit in Baku. He says the S-300 is in fact one of the weapons that Baku has been buying to protect against an Iranian attack. He argues that a war over Karabakh would be fought only on the territory of Karabakh, that Armenia (under pressure from Russia) would not to expand the war into Azerbaijan proper, like an attack on Baku's oil and gas installations (which the S-300s are protecting). Therefore, there's no need to protect Baku from an Armenian attack. So, by process of elimination, it's Iran.
In what appears to be a major victory for freedom of expression in Turkey, a top appeals court in Ankara has overturned a decision to jail two Kurdish politicians for referring to Abdullah Ocalan, the jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), as "sayin," a Turkish honorific that means both "mister" and "esteemed."
Hatip Dicle and Selim Dadak, members of the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP), were each sentenced to six years in prison after a lower court decided that they had "praised a terrorist organization" by referring to Ocalan as "mister" in interviews. But the Supreme Court of Appeals recently overruled that verdict, arguing that using that expression is protected by Turkey's constitution and -- more significantly, as human rights lawyer Orhan Kemal Cengiz points out -- by the European Convention on Human Rights and precedents set forth by the European Court of Human Rights. Reports HaberTurk:
The high court called for an holistic interpretation of the interview, and stated that the phrases were covered by the article 26 of the Constitution as well as the article 10 of the ECHR.
The preamble for the overruling stated that the phrases were covered by the "freedom of expression which is held up by the verdicts of the High Court of Appeals and the European Court of Human Rights." The high court unanimously absolved the accused, stressing that they could not be tried for using the phrase in question.
The amendment allows Georgian-born European Union citizens, who have lived in Georgia for at least five years (read billionaire opposition leader Bidzina Ivanishvili), to take part as candidates in elections (but only for three years). The government, which stripped Ivanishvili of his Georgian citizenship immediately after he announced plans to challenge President Mikheil Saakashvili, says the amendment should put an end to accusations that it's trying unfairly to keep its most deep-pocketed foe out of this October's parliamentary election.
But, with the amendment now just a presidential signature away from becoming law, Ivanishvili says he does not need any such constitutional sops. He urged President Saakashvili not to put his signature on the amendment. “The Constitution is really being changed by one man and for one man,” Ivanishvili wrote in an open letter to the president. “But this man is not me. It is you.”
The billionaire said that if the government does not scrap the constitutional change, he will not participate in the upcoming election. Your move, Misha.
After almost a generation of endless speculation, Ashgabat has finally signed an agreement to ship natural gas to South Asia, Reuters reports.
Turkmengaz, Turkmenistan's state gas monopoly, signed the agreement to supply Afghanistan, Pakistan and India via the long-stalled TAPI pipeline during an annual gas congress in the Caspian Sea resort town of Avaza (TAPI is an acronym for the four countries the pipeline traverses).
Long a sticking point, Ashgabat has demanded all its gas be sold at its border, ensuring payment before the gas moves out of its control.
Turkmenistan – which has one of the world's largest gas reserves including the second largest field, Galkynysh (“Revivial”) – is seeking to diversify exports to break its dependence on sales to Russia and a network of pipelines largely controlled by Moscow. In 2009, Turkmenistan began exporting some gas to China.
TAPI would stretch 1,735 kilometers and alone carry 33 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas a year, more than doubling Turkmenistan’s current exports of roughly 20 bcm per year. The country aims to export 180 bcm by 2030.
But endless war in Afghanistan may still prove a major impediment.
Azerbaijan made the trip to the May 20-21 Euro-Atlantic defense pow-wow in Chicago, and Georgia all but rode a rocket there. But Armenia stayed home.
And not because -- to borrow the dating excuse of an earlier generation of Americans -- it needed to wash its hair.
Armenia is Russia’s economic and military protégé in the Caucasus, and some Armenian wonks believe that President Serzh Sargsyan was a no-show in Chicago as a courtesy move to the Kremlin.
But Yerevan says that the real turn-off for Sargsyan was the gathering’s reiteration of the alliance’s commitment to the territorial integrity of nations. In plain words and as far as Armenia is concerned, this means it should let Azerbaijan take back Sargsyan's native land of breakaway Nagorno Karabakh.
“We remain committed in our support of the territorial integrity, independence, and sovereignty of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Republic of Moldova,” the 28-member bloc said. The declaration does not mention the right of self-determination which Armenia advocates in the Karabakh conflict resolution talks. The right to self-determination and the right to territorial integrity -- contradictory though at times they may seem -- are both principles that guide the internationally-mediated discussions.
“Apart from harming the Karabakh peace talks, this may pose a threat to the precarious stability in the South Caucasus,” Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian said in reference to the statement.
Over 500 rare Central Asian antelopes have been found dead from unknown causes in northern Kazakhstan.
The news will disappoint conservationists trying to boost numbers of the endangered saiga, a distinctive creature with a long, humped nose that permits it to filter air during the dusty summer months and breathe warm air during cold spells.
A total of 543 saiga corpses have been found in Kostanay Region in the far north of the country, Kazakhstan Today quoted the Emergencies Ministry as saying. The majority were does (508); 31 calves were also found dead. The cause of death is being investigated.
As well as roaming the steppes of Kazakhstan, the saiga also lives in remote areas of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Mongolia and Russia. It is classified as Critically Endangered by the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List.
Kazakhstan is home to the largest numbers of saigas in the world, but a population that numbered over a million in the 1970s has been decimated.
The World Wildlife Fund identifies loss of habitat and poaching as the major threats: The horn of the male saiga is particularly prized in Chinese medicine for use as a painkiller and antibiotic, creating a thriving and illegal trade.
Nevertheless, conservation efforts appear to be paying off in Kazakhstan: Last year officials estimated that the country’s saiga population had reached 100,000, up from 85,000 the year before.
Saakashvili in Chicago, trying to channel Ferris Bueller?
There was a lot of discussion and speculation before the NATO summit in Chicago about what would be done with Georgia. Membership was off the table, but U.S., NATO and Georgian officials dropped frequent hints that Tbilisi would get some sort of boost.
The official statement of the summit didn't really add anything to previous statements, other than a mention of the "litmus test" of democratization that Western officials have mentioned before: "We stress the importance of conducting free, fair, and inclusive elections in 2012 and 2013."
While that may not be especially encouraging to Tbilisi, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton did say that she hoped that "this summit should be the last summit that is not an enlargement summit." But there are three other aspirant states: Bosnia, Macedonia and Montenegro, and those Balkan countries are probably closer to membership than is Georgia. Clinton said she hoped Macedonia "can join the alliance as soon as possible," and didn't use any such language for Georgia (or the other Balkan countries).
President Mikheil Saakashvili, at the summit, said that Georgia's victory was being grouped with the Balkan countries:
A brawl involving groups of Kyrgyz and Uzbek labor migrants in Moscow on May 20 resulted in the detention of 79 individuals. According to one news account, lingering hostility stemming from inter-ethnic rioting in southern Kyrgyzstan in 2010 spurred the confrontation in the Russian capital.
Police intervened quickly on May 20 after receiving reports that two groups of Central Asian men were menacing each other at about 6 pm. Two Kyrgyz men reportedly were hospitalized, one with a stab wound. There were no other reports of serious injuries in connection with the incident.
Most of those taken into custody were released after providing written statements. The website operated by the Dozhd television channel reported that the Moscow clash was effectively a continuation of the inter-ethnic violence that engulfed southern Kyrgyzstan almost two years ago. Hundreds of people, most of them Uzbeks, were killed amid the 2010 rioting. Thousands of Uzbeks were also displaced.
The trial of 12 people on charges related to December’s violence in and around Zhanaozen has ended with 11 found guilty of involvement and one acquitted. Four will serve time in prison.
All 11 are from the town of Shetpe, where one person was shot dead during the violence. At least 16 people died when a six-month-old industrial dispute spun out of control during celebrations for Kazakhstan’s Independence Day in nearby Zhanaozen on December 16.
Six of the 11 were sentenced to two years in prison but were immediately amnestied and released; four received prison sentences of between four and seven years; another was given a suspended sentence.
The release of over half of the defendants may go some way toward calming tensions in the west, where both protestors and police officers are on trial over last year’s turmoil. Nevertheless, activists in Kazakhstan were unhappy with the verdicts and immediately took to Facebook and Twitter to condemn the imprisonments.
Last week one police officer became the first person convicted on related charges: Zhenisbek Temirov, former head of Zhanaozen’s remand center, received a five-year prison sentence over the death of detainee Bazarbay Kenzhebayev following a beating in police custody.
Five more police officers are on trial for shooting protestors. Yet almost ten times as many protestors as police have faced charges: In addition to the 12 from Shetpe, 37 from Zhanaozen are on trial.
What happens if European pop music and Islamic fundamentalism -- two equally powerful forces -- come head to head in Baku this week? Signs of a sequins-versus-turbans face-off already are emerging, as Azerbaijan, the host of the Eurovision 2012 Song Contest, does battle with a steady stream of tongue-lashing from neighboring Iran.
Apparently, Tehran has put aside its earlier worries of a possible Western attack on its nuclear facilities to focus on the more pressing matter of a syncopated saturnalia with gay overtones erupting to Iran's north.
The words "Azerbaijan" and "gay pride" are not often seen together, but one senior Azerbaijani presidential administration official nonetheless felt the need to clarify matters for Iran.
“We are hosting a song contest, not a gay parade,” bristled Ali Hasanov, head of the administration's political and public policy department and Azerbaijan's de-facto point-man for all Eurovision PR matters. “I do not know who got this idea into their heads in Iran.”
