In terms of statistics, unless they are the rosy government sort, Tajikistan often appears to be on the edge of an abyss. But somehow the poorest country to emerge from the Soviet Union chugs on.
So a grim World Bank report out this week probably does not indicate imminent collapse. But it is unnerving to see that almost every macroeconomic indicator suggests trouble ahead. And Tajikistan’s latest predicament coincides with a push from Moscow to join Russia’s new Eurasian Economic Union.
Tajikistan’s economic dependence on Russia is, as economists have long warned, a liability—and not only because it gives Moscow enormous influence. “The possible spillover effect from the Russian slowdown onto the Tajikistan economy is estimated to be one of the largest in the [Europe and Central Asia] region: a 1 percentage point reduction in the growth of Russia’s GDP would reduce growth in Tajikistan by the same amount,” says the October 27 report, “Tajikistan: Moderated Growth, Heightened Risk.”
For starters, over a million Tajiks, or about one-half of working-age Tajik men, labor in Russia, usually in menial jobs. Their transfers are worth about half of Tajikistan’s GNP, making it the most remittance-dependent country in the world.
But as the Kremlin sacrifices Russia’s economy for its Ukraine policy, which has caused a new low in relations with the West, the resulting downturn is hurting the ruble and Tajikistan’s economy at large. An ailing ruble buys fewer dollars to send home.
As Uzbekistan continues the annual cotton harvest that is largely responsible for the Aral Sea’s demise, officials in Tashkent are boasting that a recent donor conference raised close to $3 billion to help save the endangered lake, once the world’s fourth-largest.
Verifying Uzbek government claims is never easy, and conference attendees are not hurrying to confirm or break down the impressive figure. But an event for the Aral Sea did take place in Urgench, a city not far from the Aral’s receding shoreline, on October 27 and 28. Addressing the conference via pre-recorded video, UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon demanded better international coordination to “mitigate environmental catastrophe” reported uz24.uz, an Uzbek outlet. According to the independent Uznews.net, the conference was organized by the authoritarian state in conjunction with the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea, a regional club, which critics say has done almost nothing since it was set up in 1993.
NASA satellite photos released in late August show that even a partial replenishment of the water-starved Aral is unlikely: The lake’s eastern tranche has completely dried up for the first time in history.
In the story, published on May 17, the International Day against Homophobia and Transphobia, Galajian listed 60 individuals allegedly engaged in what he termed gay propaganda. He included links to their Facebook profiles and called for their total ostracization. He also urged employers and schools to cut off any contact with these individuals. State employers, he added, “should fire them under any convenient pretext," one English translation of the Armenian text reads.
When Public Information and Need for Knowledge (PINK), an LGBT-rights group, and 16 individuals from the blacklist sued Galajian, his newspaper responded with articles laced with homophobic slurs, which described the plaintiffs as "fag defenders" and grant-guzzlers; the latter an ex-Soviet pejorative for international donor-sponsored civil society groups.
The tug-of-war started publicly this summer when the New-York-City-based Human Rights Watch, which is not an EITI member, called for the group to end Azerbaijan’s membership over its harsh treatment of civil-society activists, journalists and opposition members.
Others agreed it was time to put Azerbaijan under the lens. “If people can attend every EITI meeting but have their bank accounts frozen for being critical - or can get hounded by authorities for asking questions publicly about oil or mining deals once they step outside those meetings - then that is not an enabling environment.” said alternate EITI board member Brendan O’Donnell from Global Witness, a natural-resources-corruption watchdog, in an October-16 statement.
After a check-up visit in Baku in late September, EITI management announced that “The situation facing civil society in Azerbaijan is clearly problematic.”
France has formally ended its military presence in Tajikistan after 13 years of operations supporting French troops in Afghanistan.
At a ceremony October 28, the French flag was lowered at the Dushanbe airport, where since 2001 the French military had operated since 2001. The small base (actually a part of the Dushanbe's civilian international airport) hosted around 200 French troops at a time, working on supply and logistics for their compatriots in Afghanistan. From 2005 to 2007 it also hosted French fighter jets used for operations in Afghanistan. Over its lifespan it facilitated the transit of about 89,000 soldiers and carried out 11,000 airlift missions, according to the French Ministry of Defense.
The withdrawl is of course connected with the completion of the international combat mission in Afghanistan, which formally ends at the end of this year. As of October 6, France only had 90 soldiers remaining in Afghanistan, down from 4,000 in 2009.
The large majority of French troops actually left last year, and what was left was just a small skeleton crew working on resurfacing the runways, which was part of the deal by which the Tajikistan government agreed to allow the French presence.
Turkmenistan marked Independence Day this week. While parts of the gas-rich country were experiencing gas shortages, there was no shortage of pomp and prosperity on display in Ashgabat on October 27. President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov was in attendance and some of the choreography – like an Akhal-Teke horse, his favorite breed, drawn out of Kalashnikovs – must have been especially pleasing to the horse-mad leader.
A photographer in Ashgabat sent EurasiaNet.org these images, which are used with permission.
Azerbaijan has chipped in a million dollars to the United Nations' Ebola response effort in what appears to be the latest installment in the ongoing campaign to promote Baku’s credentials as a responsible member of the international community.
As this donation underlines, the time when Azerbaijan was a war-ravaged, post-Soviet country relying on foreign aid is long gone. In recent years, whether schools for Georgia or restoration jobs for France, it has been steadily building up its donor activities.Oil and gas wealth helped changed everything, from the skyline of the capital, Baku, to the country’s military supplies and economic credentials abroad.
But one thing that has not changed, critics claim, are the Soviet, totalitarian ways, and, according to a growing choir of human-rights watchdogs, it is getting worse.
Critics of President Ilham Aliyev's government — at least those who remain at large — believe that Azerbaijan’s handouts for international development and charity serve primarily to blanket over international criticism of its dismal democracy record.
The government, of course, even as it hires one American PR guru, Liz Mair, to make its case in Washington, rejects the notion that it has any such need.
The head of Russia's post-Soviet security organization warned that Islamist radicals from ex-Soviet countries now in Afghanistan or the MIddle East are simply "awaiting orders" to go back home and fight. And he blamed NATO and the United States for refusing to cooperate with Russia in the fight against Islamist radicals thus exacerbatig the problem.
The statements, by General Secretary of the Collective Security Treaty Organization Nikolay Bordyuzha, are the part of a growing tendency by Russian and other former Soviet officials to present ISIS not only as a threat to Syria and Iraq, where it is present now, but also to the states of the former Soviet Union. Notes RFE/RL in a recent discussion on the issue:
The leaders of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan both made references to the IS in their recent Independence Day addresses to their people. All five of the Central Asian leaders also attended the CIS summit in Minsk earlier this month. That does not happen very often. Tajik President Emomali Rahmon even called for a common CIS strategy to confront IS at the Minsk summit.
While Russia is on a land-grabbing binge, South Ossetia hopes Moscow will not forget about its aspirations, too. The region’s separatist leadership is drawing up an agreement meant to insert the disputed territory into the Russian Federation.
The agreement is influenced by a recent integration plan that Moscow offered to South Ossetia’s separatist twin, Abkhazia, but reportedly goes far beyond it. Both regions maintain de-facto independence from Georgia and almost existentially rely on backing from Russia. Abkhazia, however, insists on some ground rules in its relationship with Moscow, such as keeping space for sovereignty.
The particulars of the changes made by the Abkhaz remain under wraps, but, reportedly, they took out the clause on bilateral simplification of naturalization of each other’s citizens. Also, reportedly, axed was the most contentious part that proposed to allow Russians to take the command of a joint military force in times of war in Abkhazia.
But if the Abkhaz found the Russian integration plan overbearing, the South Ossetians believe that such a deal would not be going far enough. “The version of the agreement, which is being prepared for signing between Russia and Abkhazia, would not reflect all the yearnings of the South Ossetian people, their aspirations for the Russian Federation,” said the region’s de-facto parliamentary speaker, Anatoly Bibilov.
Turkmenistan has the world’s fourth-largest natural gas reserves and exports billions of dollars worth of gas every year. But its copious reserves are apparently not enough to ensure a stable supply for residents of this isolated, totalitarian country.
Shortages in northern villages prompted a rare protest on October 28, reports the Chronicles of Turkmenistan, a news website run by exiles. Several dozen women blocked a highway to draw officials’ attention to the shortages, which come with the onset of autumn and are affecting residents’ ability to heat their homes and cook. The shortages, says Chronicles, have even hit Dashoguz, a town of about 200,000 people:
Residents have repeatedly called on gas providers [for help], but the latter complain that very little gas is being delivered; moreover, the pipes and equipment are very run-down, while specialists capable of maintaining all this in working order are simply nowhere to be found. The authorities are not providing either the funds or the pipes to repair gas mains.