The situation in Kyrgyzstan appears to be pretty grave, with protesters in Talas taking over a government building. It's ongoing, and to make too many conclusions just yet would obviously be premature. Still, I was struck by this paragraph in EurasiaNet's latest story:
In the evening, rumors began circulating that two planeloads of special security troops had been dispatched by the government and were preparing to move into the town center. One witness said that, despite the possibility of a clash, the crowd of protesters in Talas was growing. Many intended to stay in the square overnight.
Of course, we should be extremely cautious about rumors that emerge from a crowd of protesters. However, it's not a stretch to imagine that Kyrgyzstan might deploy some sort of security forces. And just imagine, if the government had a group of well trained anti-terror troops, those would certainly be among the most likely to respond.
And that puts the proposed US-built anti-terror training center in Batken in some new perspective. The current government in Kyrgyzstan appears more and more brazen in its efforts to maintain power. Might it use its security forces like Uzbekistan did in Andijan? (Or even a fraction as violently?) And what if those troops were US-trained? I would imagine the Americans who are in charge of the Batken center are watching this situation in Talas pretty closely.
Gallup has done a new survey of the non-NATO former Soviet countries, and found that in only one -- you get one guess which -- did more than 40 percent believe NATO to be a "protection" of their country. Yes, it was Georgia, where 56 percent of people believed NATO to be protecting their country. Azerbaijanis were the next most favorably disposed toward NATO, with 38 percent seeing it as protection, followed by Turkmenistan (36 percent), Uzbekistan (31), Moldova (30), Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan (25), Armenia (22) and Tajikistan (18). Ukraine, Belarus and Russia saw NATO even less favorably.
Apparently, most of the people in these countries see NATO refracted through the lens of their regional security issues, especially NATO member Turkey and NATO bugaboo Russia. The pollsters write:
Views about NATO across the rest of the CIS region are largely defined in terms of a country's relations with Russia and its citizens' sociocultural ties. Historically, Tajikistan has been oriented both toward its neighboring countries that share the Persian language (Iran and Afghanistan) and toward Russia, on which it depends for security and labor migration. The wars in Iran and Afghanistan, as well as Russia's constant hidden or open opposition to the United States, may influence Tajikistanis' views of NATO--and hence the organization's relatively low average protection rating of 9 percent. It is interesting to note, however, that the percentage of Tajikistanis who associate NATO with protection rose significantly between 2008 and 2009--from 5 percent to 18 percent--and potentially reflects their increased level of approval of the new US leadership (30 percent in 2008 versus 42 percent in 2009).
So, American and British troops will march through Moscow in this year's Victory Day parade, but Georgian troops won't. Reports RIA Novosti:
Russia has sent no invitation to Georgian military officials to participate in the May 9 Victory Day parade on Moscow's Red Square, a Russian Defense Ministry spokesman said on Monday.
"The invitations were sent to the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) member-states. Georgia is not part of the CIS," Col. Alexei Kuznetsov told journalists.
Of course, as RIAN points out, the U.S. and Britain are also not part of the CIS, so Georgia's snub doesn't have anything to do with that. No need here to point out the real reason.
In other WWII news, a Georgian WWII monument destroyed in December will be rebuilt in Moscow, starting just before Victory Day, reports RT:
Within a year and a half Moscow authorities promise to erect in the Russian capital a copy of the “We fought the Nazis together” monument that was demolished in Georgia on December 19, 2009.
The monument will be placed on Remembrance Alley in the World War II Victory Park on Poklonnaya Hill... Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov has already signed an order to lay the foundation stone on May 6.
The Georgian government had originally said the Kutaisi monument was only being "restored," but the force of the explosion of this renovation effort was apparently so strong that it send chunks of concrete into a house, killing two people.
Trying to figure out what is going on with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization always requires a bit of tea-leaf reading and Kremlinology, given that the organizations who most reliably report on the group tend to be the state-owned media of the member countries. My experience covering one of the SCO summits (in Bishkek in 2007) made clear just how opaque the group is.
That said, there has been a spate of stories this week discussing Pakistan's potential membership in the group. The foreign minister of Uzbekistan is visiting Pakistan, and Uzbekistan -- chair of the SCO this year -- supports Pakistan's membership. This analysis suggests that membership for Pakistan is likely:
Will Pakistan be accepted into the SCO? It all depends on Russia. There is not other opposition in the group. Russia on previous occasions has demanded Bharat’s inclusion along with that of Pakistan. Bharat however is not longer interested in the SCO, and Delhi’s relations with Moscow have soured. So Islamabad may soon become a member of the SCO. The SCO is considering the membership applications of Iran and Pakistan. While there is much discussion of Iran on the agenda, whose absorption into the regional grouping would be seen as a provocative step, there is almost no opposition to the membership of Pakistan.
What might Pakistani membership mean? Not clear, given that it's still not clear exactly what the group is supposed to be doing. Is it a military bloc, or an economic cooperation group, or a cultural exchange forum (or a floor wax, or a dessert topping...)
A Georgian opposition website claims that the notorious Imedi TV stunt exposes Mikheil Saakashvili's lack of trust in the army:
Then, on 13 March, a key element of the Imedi faked news broadcast was the claim that part of the army had gone over to the opposition - which in this context meant it had voluntarily signed up to Russian overlordship. Whether or not one believes the tape of a phone call between Imedi's chief Giorgi Arveladze and his deputy about the programme - in which Arveladze says "Misha" has seen and approved the faked bulletin - is genuine, it is clear that the programme reflected the inner political thinking of the regime, and so shows that they regard the army not as a bulwark of Georgian sovreignity but as a weak spot.
This seems to be both a savvy analysis and a dangerous political game -- for both sides -- to be playing.
While the international media have given a lot of attention to Russian National Security Council head Nikolai Patrushev's floating of the possibility that Georgia could have been behind the Moscow Metro attacks, South Ossetian President Eduard Kokoity's contribution seems to have slipped under the radar. The same day as the attacks, GeorgiaTimes reported:
At the hearing with leaders of security and law enforcement structures Kokoyty paid special attention to messages about Guantanamo Bay's prisoners in Georgia.
"Considering that in immediate vicinity of South Ossetia Georgian authorities intend to open a base for training subversive agents, I cannot rule out these people will be used as suicide bombers here or in North Caucasus," Kokoyty said.
Yes, it's a win-win proposition for Tbilisi: curry favor with Washington by taking some Gitmo prisoners off its hands, while gaining cannon fodder to use against the South Ossetians. Well played, Misha!
Turkey, a NATO member, has been one of the U.S.'s top defense industry customers. But could it be serious about buying a new air defense system from Russia or China? That's what Hürriyet Daily News is suggesting. In addition to bids from the U.S. and Italy, Turkey is "taking the Russian and Chinese options seriously":
The Russians earlier were hesitant about whether to bid but decided to go ahead and formally submit their offer when Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited Moscow and held talks with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in mid-January, one business official familiar with the issue said. The Russian S300s are seen as an effective system.
The Chinese, meanwhile, are expected to offer the cheapest price and the highest degree of technology transfer, defense analysts said.
As the paper points out, the Russian and Chinese systems wouldn't be compatible with NATO equipment, and either would seem an unlikely choice. But it's worth recalling that two years ago Turkey bought a few S-300s from Russia and said they were just to "simulate threats that may come from countries with ex-Soviet systems in their inventories," namely the Greek Cypriots.
Meanwhile, the big annual American-Turkish Council conference in Washington, which is traditionally a big forum for interaction between Turkish and American defense officials and industry, was cancelled this year because of the row over the Armenian genocide resolution.
Well, that didn't take long. A senior Russian official has suggested that Georgia could be behind the Metro bombings on Monday. As quoted in the Times (London), National Security Council head Nikolai Patrushev :
“All theories have to be checked. For example, there is Georgia and the leader of that state, Saakashvili, whose behaviour is unpredictable,” Mr Patrushev told the Kommersant newspaper.
“He has already unleashed war once. It is possible that he may unleash it again. We have had information that individual members of Georgian special forces support contacts with terrorist organisations in the Russian North Caucasus. We must check this also in relation to the acts of terror in Moscow.”
Georgian officials, naturally, responded negatively. Here's Temuri Yakobishvili using a memorable phrase on Civil.ge:
“Unfortunately, it became a trend in Russia – Jewization of Georgians – wherein if previously Jews were to blame for everything in Russia, now Georgians are to be blamed for everything,” he added.
Russian media also yesterday implicated Georgia in a foiled terror plot in Baku. Just to play along for a bit, as strategically challenged as Saakashvili can be, it's hard to see what Georgia could possibly gain by doing this. This will almost certainly result in greater instability in the north Caucasus, and likely increased Russian military activity just across Georgia's border.
For a far more sensible take on the reaction to the bombings, see the excellent Sean's Russia Blog.
Is anyone shocked that the U.S. military cooperation with Uzbekistan in the Northern Distribution Network has tied the Pentagon up with some unsavory characters there? No? Well, now there is some proof. Ken Silverstein of Harper's reports that a company tied to Gulnara Karimova, daughter of Islam Karimov, as well as to the American-Uzbekistan Chamber of Commerce, has a contract to do some NDN shipping:
FMN says it is a subcontractor on a deal for “Line Haul Trucking Operations” for the U.S. Army. The contract calls for FMN to move supplies between Tajikistan and the Manas Air Base in Kyrgyzstan, with thirty trucks a month traveling the route and carrying “outsized” equipment on low-bed trailers. FMN also claims to have serviced “every US air base in Afghanistan to date.”
The Washington Post has a good feature on the sad aftermath of a hearts-and-minds gesture by officers at Manas Air Base. A woman from Kyrgyzstan, Lyudmila Sukhanov, was dying of an intestinal ailment in a Bishkek hospital in 2002 when she came to the attention of U.S. officers at Manas, who realized she could be saved if she were taken to a hospital outside Kyrgyzstan.
But with Kyrgyz cooperation vital to the United States, saving Lyuda, as she came to be known, was not only humane but also strategic, a goodwill gesture directed at a vital but skittish ally. The request to medevac her received the blessing of the commander of U.S. forces in the region, Gen. Tommy Franks, and then-Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. In early 2003, a C-17 military transport plane braved dangerous conditions to airlift Sukhanov first to Germany and then to Washington.
Now her medical condition has stabilized, but she's not well enough to go back to Kyrgyzstan. So she's stuck in the U.S., watching too much TV, costing taxpayers "millions" and apparently arousing the resentment of doctors and nurses at Walter Reed who say she's monopolizing a bed in the hospital.
