As bad as things may have got for Kazakhstan, authorities have tended to grasp the tender slip of consolation that the economy was expected to grow in 2016, if only slightly.
Analysts at the London-based Economist Intelligence Unit now beg to differ and are predicting that Kazakhstan is set for its first year of negative growth in nearly two decades.
“We have revised our forecast for Kazakhstan and now expect GDP to contract for the first time since 1998,” the think tank tweeted on January 22.
An accompanying table showed that the EIU believes the economy will shrink by 2 percent this year, posting negative growth for the first time since 1998.
Years of near double-digit growth were fueled by surging oil prices, and the slump has accordingly been caused by the collapse in the cost of the commodity, which accounts for about one-quarter of Kazakhstan’s economy.
EIU’s prediction, the gloomiest one out there for Kazakhstan, piles on the misery as the country comes to terms with the economy slowing to just 1.5 percent last year, down from 4.3 percent in 2014.
The government is now recalculating its budget, with the most pessimistic scenario based on oil costing just $16 per barrel on average over the year, Prime Minister Karim Masimov said last week. The government’s core scenario is based on $40 oil, well above the sub-$30 per barrel mark registered most of last week.
Kazakhstan is also bearing the brunt of a slowdown in its major trading partners Russia, which is in full-blown recession, and China, which posted its lowest growth in a quarter of a century
Russia has reached out to the Taliban in Afghanistan in what senior officials say is an effort to cooperate with them in the fight against ISIS in that country. The strategy would be shift for the Kremlin, which has largely portrayed the Taliban as just as much of a threat as ISIS.
The Kremlin's special envoy to Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, said in an interview with Interfax last month that Russian interests "objectively coincide" with those of the Taliban in the fight against ISIS, and that Moscow has channels for information sharing with the Taliban. "The Taliban now for the most part act like a national liberation movement. For them the Americans are occupiers, who illegally occupy their homeland and threaten their cultural and religious traditions," Kabulov said.
The Taliban, for its part, denied that any contacts with Russia had taken place:
On Wednesday 23rd December 2015 some media outlets published a report quoting the Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation to Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov as saying that they have talked to or established lines of communication with the Islamic Emirate regarding the threat of so called Daesh in Afghanistan.
The Islamic Emirate has made and will continue to make contacts with many regional countries to bring an end to the American invasion of our country and we consider this our legitimate right.
But we do not see a need for receiving aid from anyone concerning so called Daesh and neither have we contacted nor talked with anyone about this issue.
Tajikistan is planning to create "special reconnaissance units" to guard the border with Afghanistan, a senior security official has said.
The units will be part of Tajikistan's State Committee for National Security (known by its Russian acronym, GKNB), which oversees the border, according to the commander of the border forces, Radzhabali Rakhmonali.
"The situation on the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border is complex. In Kunduz, Takhar, and Badakhshan provinces the 'Taliban' movement is working actively. So it's been proposed that we restructure the border forces and form special reconnaissance units," Rakhmonali said in parliament on Friday. Last week, Tajikistan suspended operations at its consulates in Kunduz and Badakhshan because of security concerns.
More than 1,000 troops will serve in the new units to start, a military source told AFP. Radzhabali also said that "there are financial means" for attracting more contract troops to the border force.
The proposed restructuring also would make the commander of the border forces responsible directly to the president rather than to the government as is the case now. The restructuring has been approved by the lower house of the parliament, and must be approved by the upper house and then the president. Given the top-down nature of politics in Tajikistan, there's no reason to believe the proposal won't be eventually approved.
Just 14,000 votes. That was the refrain in Georgia as it learned that the hashtag craze to push native son Zaza Pachulia into the upcoming NBA All-Stars Game had fallen short.
Spurred on by Georgian President Giorgi Margvelashvili and various celebrities, the campaign had unified the big Georgian’s small homeland in the Caucasus like no other event in recent years. For weeks past, logging onto Facebook or Twitter in Georgia meant getting bombarded by the text #NBAVOTE Zaza Pachulia; including from users who before had taken no interest in basketball.
In a January 22 Facebook post, Pachulia profusely thanked his Georgian supporters. “These will be the most memorable days of my life,” he said in Georgian. “Your love and support means more to me than getting in the All-Stars Game.”
Some still cling to a hope that the 31-year-old Pachulia, an accomplished player, will be put on the reserves for the February 14 All-Stars game in Toronto. “[I]f Kobe [Bryant] got injured and won’t be able to play, won’t Zaza be put in in his place?” another Georgian fan hopefully asked.
Serikhzhan Mambetalin's mother, Anastasia, sobbing after the Almaty court verdict on Friday, January 22, 2016.
Two political activists have been jailed in Kazakhstan on charges of inciting racial hatred at the close of a trial that their supporters believe was politically motivated.
The trial in Almaty ended two days after President Nursultan Nazarbayev called a snap parliamentary election for March 20, a move he said was aimed at consolidating the nation as the country battles an economic crisis.
Yermek Narymbayev – who has been in ill health throughout the trial – received a three-year prison term and Serikzhan Mambetalin was jailed for two years at the end of a six-week trial, to cries of “shame!” from supporters as Mambetalin’s elderly mother was led away from the courtroom in tears.
During the summing up of legal arguments on January 22, Mambetalin denounced the proceedings as “a political order” and Narymbayev dismissed them as “illegal.”
The two were tried on the charge of incitement to ethnic, religious, tribal or social strife, which civil society campaigners recently urged the authorities to abolish, claiming it is used to muzzle critics. The government denies that any politically motivated trials take place in Kazakhstan.
The charges against Narymbayev and Mambetalin stem from their Facebook postings about an unpublished book written some two decades ago by another anti-government activist, Murat Telibekov, who is under investigation on the same charge.
In their postings, the two “incited ethnic strife and insulted the honor and dignity of the Kazakh nation,” a prosecutor claimed – arguments the defendants, known for their mildly nationalist stances promoting ethnic Kazakh interests, dismissed as nonsense.
The ending of international sanctions against Iran could soon send Iranian gas flowing across and through the South Caucasus, amping up the region’s strategic significance and possibly changing the dynamics of its energy trade.
For Azerbaijan, getting Iran on board with TANAP, the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Export Pipeline, could bolster Baku’s largest energy-export undertaking, the Southern Gas Corridor, a chain of three big pipelines, stretching across more than 3,400 kilometers and seven countries from the Caspian Sea into Europe. TANAP is the largest and costliest section of the Corridor.
As a transit country, Georgia would get a share of any Iranian gas flowing through the Southern Gas Corridor. But with more Iranian gas in the region, Tbilisi fears losing that share of gas it receives from another pipeline — run by Russian energy behemoth Gazprom for shipments to Armenia from Russia.
A man faces a possible jail sentence after a video of him appearing to encourage his two young daughters to knock back shots of vodka went viral in Kazakhstan.
Broadcast by KTK TV on January 20, the video shows the children – who appear to be aged around three and six – drinking large shots of clear liquid dispensed by their father from a vodka bottle, to cries of “a hundred grams, a hundred grams!” and “let’s toast!”
The man, identified only as a 34-year-old resident of Astana, inadvertently drew the attention of the police to the video himself, by filing a complaint about an infringement of his privacy after a friend posted it online.
The clip went viral, sparking widespread condemnation among social media users in Kazakhstan.
The man now claims there was only water in the bottle – but he faces a possible 6 million tenge (around $16,000) fine or a prison term on the charge of encouraging anti-social behavior in a minor.
The video came to light as another case of child abuse shocked the nation, after a woman threw a newborn baby out of a car and allegedly caused its death in southern Kazakhstan earlier this month.
The suspect, Bakhytgul Baysengereyeva, is the adoptive mother of the underage girl who unexpectedly gave birth to the child prematurely in a car traveling along a highway.
She “admitted that she was afraid and threw the baby out onto the road, because she did not know about the girl’s pregnancy,” a police officer explained to Tengri News.
Advocates for the survivors of an Armenian family killed by a Russian soldier say that the soldier's murder trial is being unduly influenced in favor of Russia.
The soldier, Valeriy Permyakov, has already admitted that he killed seven members of the Avetisyan family after deserting the 102nd Russian military base in Armenia's second city of Gyumri. He has been convicted of desertion by a Russian military court, and is now on trial for murder.
Russia originally announced that it planned to try Permyakov for murder, as well, but street protests in Gyumri and Yerevan against that decision forced Moscow to back down and agree to let Armenian courts try him.
But the way the trial is being conducted has again raised accusations that Russia is trying to influence it. The trial is being overseen by an Armenian judge, but is being conducted on the premises of the Russian military court at the base in Gyumri.
The trial began in December, and then lawyers for the defense complained that the presence of Russian servicemembers in the courtroom "shows that it is overseen by the Russian side," Armenian media reported. The judge at the time disagreed, saying they were needed to protect Permyakov, but when the trial resumed on Monday the Russian servicemembers had been replaced by Armenian guards.
Anticorruption officials in Kyrgyzstan say they have exposed a $58 million money laundering operation — the largest ever seen in the country’s history.
The graft-fighting department at the State National Security Committee (GKNB) said on January 20 that the cash was laundered by a construction company called LLC Berkut Stroi, which they said was based in the southern city of Osh.
The GKNB say two employees of a commercial bank in Osh, Amanbank, registered the construction company in the name of Kanybek M. They then opened bank accounts in Amanbank and another bank, Rosinbank.
The next step was to sign bogus contracts for the purchase of construction materials from companies in China and Latvia, to which the 4.4 billion Kyrgyz som ($58 million) were transferred between January and October 2014. Meanwhile, tax records at Berkut Stroi reflected no economic activity.
The man identified as the founder of Berkt Stroi, whose name can only be given as Kanybek M., said he had no idea of what business was being done by the company he purportedly controlled.
“I was told [by a friend]: ‘Let’s start a company, we will take care of banking operations.’ I know nothing about banking operations,” he told the Kloop.kg news website.
Kanybek M. said anytime the alleged money-launderers need a document signed, they paid him an additional 500 soms ($7).
Another figure that Kloop.kg reported was linked to the case said that although he worked at the bank at the time of the alleged offense, he worked as the chief accountant and didn’t work directly with clients, so he couldn’t know who transferred the money.
“Clooney targets Turkic states in her path to fame,” screamed a headline in AzerNews, an outlet long busy with whitewashing the Azerbaijani government’s human-rights record. “We would like to note that Amal Clooney is an ethnic Armenian and she represented Armenian interests in the European Court for Human Rights,” echoed the hawkish Haqqin.az news service.
Clooney and the Media Legal Defence Initiative (MLDI), a British charitable organization, will represent Ismayilova in a case brought before the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) over the reporter's extended pre-trial detention, MLDI attorney Nani Jansen emailed in response to a query from EurasiaNet.org. Ismayilova, 39, was detained in December 2014 on charges of allegedly having prompted a co-worker to attempt suicide. She remained in custody even after the co-worker had dropped his charges.
The MLDI also is representing Ismayilova before the ECHR concerning the government's failure to prosecute those involved in a sex-video blackmail attempt against Ismayilova, and the violation of her right to privacy.